Is he so vain that he can't find someone to apply his make up better...........................real men don't wear this much make up, a little eye liner on JD is fine but this crossed the line of machismo
“The same rule applied to the Bronx Colors-brand face makeup from Switzerland that Trump slathered on — two full containers, one half full — even if it meant the housekeepers had to regularly bring new shirts from the pro shop because of the rust-colored stains on the collars.” "Jason Kelly, a makeup artist who touched up Trump’s makeup during the Republican convention in 2016, thinks it is makeup on top of tanning. He told the paper, “When I see him, I see a line of oxidized bronzer around his hairline. The application is like a kindergartner did it.”" https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/12/6/20998822/trump-orange-concealer-bronx-colors
That could be the reason. Or maybe the fact that he's a convicted felon, who tried to overturn and steal the election, and has been judged accountable for sexually assaulting a woman, might also be reasons. But the poorly applied orange face paint, might be enough on its own.
The election is just becoming more of a toss up from the perspective of the Electoral College. The most recent polling has Harris up nationally by 2.5-3.0% over Trump - with her very close to the magical 50% tipping point. However - the Electoral College is a mess - with some good and some bad news for both candidates. The bad news for Harris is that the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan are absolutely in play for Trump. Harris has a 1% lead in Wisconsin and Michigan is the same - Harris +1%. These are two states that Harris has to win.... they have always been close, with Harris' largest lead being under 3% - but there is a reason that both parties have been active in Michigan, and why Obama and Clyburn have been there. The Democrats have the grass roots advantage in Michigan, but not so much in Wisconsin. Tammy Duckworth is trying to hold onto her seat as well. If there is any form of a "red wave", even only one that is 2-3% strong, Wisconsin will flip red. The bad news for Trump is that Arizona and Georgia are being very stubborn, and Nevada is starting to lean for Harris. Trump has lost slight support in both Arizona and Georgia, but still maintains a 1-2% point lead in both. The lead in Arizona has nudged down the last few weeks. Georgia was down to Trump +1 and the last week is Trump +1.5. Georgia is very much a wild card with turnout being key - I think that it is a more conservative state and should go for Trump, but could fall with massive turnout. North Carolina is now a complete toss up and has been for weeks. Looking at the numbers from 2020 show that polling in places like Georgia were pretty accurate - within 1% point. So that means that Georgia likely really is pretty close, and turnout may be the deciding factor. The polls in Michigan in 2020 were pretty accurate, but Biden had a huge lead in that state and Harris does not. North Carolina polls under-estimated Trump by almost 2% in 2020 - Biden won, but it was close - in 2024 it is even closer, and if Trump is under-estimated in 2024, he will carry the state. The polls in Pennsylvania in 2020 were really accurate leading into the final 10 days of the election, within 1%.... right now Harris is holding onto less than a 1% lead in the state, and it has been pretty consistent the last month or so. Wisconsin under-estimated Biden in 2020, and his actual victory was 1-2% more than the polls expected leading up the election. So what does all of this mean? Well - based on the history of the states and recent polling - my guess is Georgia and Arizona and North Carolina go for Trump ......... Harris likely takes Michigan and Wisconsin.... New Mexico and Nevada likely stay with Harris as well. That leaves Pennsylvania - and the Harris lead is within the margin or error, approximately 1%... that lead has been consistent the last few weeks. If I had to put money on it - I think that Harris wins the popular vote +2.5 and Trump wins the Electoral College narrowly.... but it is so close it really is a toss up. A single spoiler state could change everything, especially for Trump - if he picks on Nevada or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, it swings the election quite possibly - likewise, if Harris takes Georgia and North Carolina, then Trump is likely done.
Let's have an intelligence battle... Which candidate better understands tarrifs, how they work, and who ends up paying? Which candidate understands the constitution of the united states better? Which candidate passed the bar? Which candidate has a firmer grasp on national security? Which candidate has a firmer grasp of science?
Nice. NC was shaky and even projected Dem in some polls last time around but ended up Trump plus a Senate seat for republicans. Call it voter suppression or whatever but the polls don't account for that rightward shift. I guess the Mark Robinson scandal can influence upballot through abstaining but that seems unlikely. Georgia will be a long shot if she can't convince black male voters to go to the ballot boxes for her. I think if there was a compelling economic reason for non stock or asset owning voters to vote Kamala, it would already have been thrown out into the campaign already.
Wisconsin polling in 2020 overestimated Biden by 6 points. Michigan polling overestimated Biden by around 3 points in 2020. RCP averages. Harris is in the most trouble in those two states (and PA, where Trump is polling ahead now). Nevada is a tossup. Georgia leans Trump. North Carolina leans Trump. In the betting markets, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona are all 64-67% probability of a Trump win in those states. Harris loses if she loses PA and the betting markets show 58%-42% Trump there right now. She is in major trouble -- which is why she's finally doing interviews. Unfortunately for her, those interviews are not going well.
And there goes Fox again saying they were having a Town Hall with women. Yet it ends up being hosted by a Women's GOP Organization. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/16/media/fox-news-women-town-hall-supporters/index.html#openweb-convo
Hmm what interview she gave that hasn't went well what have you been watching . As far the number so far it seems that the Dems are doing well.
The Ds should lead the Rs in early in-person voting and absentee vote by mail. This is what is expected. The bulk of the R voting will take place election day.
She's had the electoral vote lead for weeks according to the polls below, and is still gaining in crucial swing states as of today. https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls
I just don't trust these polls. My personal opinion is that they are being skewed R. In 2020 there were a lot of polls but the vast majority of them were independent. I also admit that the polls were wrong in 16 and a bit in 20 as they missed, but overall were still within the margin of error. That had been taken into account and polls in 2022 were much better but actually skewed more R than D. Now there are something like 30 independent polls, 28 republican run polls and 1 Democrat run poll. This has become very apparent in the last 3 weeks as these R leaning polls have been dumping a bunch of polls and sites like 538 are just throwing them into the aggregate. I have been going to the actual polls and looking at their frameworks. One R run poll, that a lot of news sites had picked up on, was basing their numbers on the idea that people of color don't vote so they only applied 10% of their responses to the final tally. This heavily skewed the results R. Articles were written about this polls results and hot takes were given all over the place. Why cant the news pick up on this but I the middling middle America nobody can figure that out? I think its for ratings. If this was not a close race then less eyes would be on their shows causing them to lose money. They want the perception of a neck and neck race. This provides eyes on sets and money in their pocket, which is now the goal of news. Looking at neutral polls only Harris is probably closer to 5% nationally and +2 higher in each state. . . . . . . just food for thought
