The money they make in arb is more important to get rid of than the prospects gained. Although if they can package 2 or 3 of them with a prospect or two to get an above avg hitting OF all the better.
I think he would bring back a guy like that. A 1/2 - 1 1/2 WAR guy who is making $4-$10M in arbitration so could be a borderline non-tender guy looks to be about right.
What? Urquidy is the only guy on that list that ANY GM would " get rid of" The Astros are better with every single one of those players than some JAG. 2024 Player values per Fangraphs (projected 2025 arbitration salary) Framber: $28.9M ($17.8M) Tucker: $33.5M ($15.8M) Pena: $22.3M ($4.4M) Meyers: $16.2M ($2.2M) B.Abreu: $6.9M ($3.7M) Dubon: $9.3M ($4.6M) Chas: -$1.4M ($3.3M) Garcia: DNP ($1.875M) Murfee: DNP ($0.8M) Chas was worth $26.4M in 2023 and projected to be worth $20M in 2025. Garcia is projected to be worth $13.6M in 2025. Murfee is projected to be worth $4M in 2025 They all have value. Much more value than just dumping their arbitration salaries. "Getting rid of them" to cut salary is basically setting money on fire.
I see like this, if you can't trade them let them walk, so you can add an impact bat with the money you would be spending on them. Use guys like Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Melton, Hamilton, Cole as your utility infield,4th OF type guys. Do what it takes to add an impact bat and go young and cheap on your bench players so that you have the money to add an impact bat if you can't make a trade. No more keeping around guys that don't move the needle. My goal is to get to 30 mil by trading Pressly, Caratini and either trade or let walk everybody but Framber, Tucker, Pena, Abreu, Garcia. Maybe Dubon That would give the org approximately 65 mil to spend this off-season. With that money, through FA and trades you should be able to add 3 impact bats and lengthen the lineup.
He is only playing 1b against left handers about 25% of the time. Caratini starts at catcher in those games. It’s a little bit less time at catcher than last year.
If Craig Kimbrel who has had even worse lows than Pressly here and there in his career, Pressly still has lots of value.
With in-house players, Houston can trot out a lineup with these career splits (wRC+): R/L 149/123 142/132 167/166 TBD/142 TBD/132 127/103 96/114 88/111 86/TBD 2B Altuve RF Tucker DH Alvarez TBD/LF McCormick TBD/SS Pena C Diaz CF McCormick/Meyers SS Pena/UT Dubon 1B Singleton/TBD Singleton can be expected to hit much better against RHP than his career mark, based on last season. McCormick’s ability to meet his career numbers is questionable. But Houston needs: 1/2.) A 3B who is excellent (>120 wRC+) against RHP 2.) An OF who is excellent (>120 wRC+) against RHP 3.) A bat (can even be a DH, but preferably a player who can play a position) who is good (>110 wRC+) against LHP A cheap solution of Jason Heyward and Gio Urshela has Houston’s lineup looking like this: R/L 2B Altuve 149/123 RF Tucker 142/132 DH Alvarez 167/166 LF Heyward/McCormick 114/142 3B/SS Urshela/Pena 100/132 C Diaz 127/103 CF McCormick/Meyers 96/114 SS/3B Pena/Dubon 88/111 1B Singleton/Urshela 86/98
$65 million on free agents gets you far less productivity and value than $65 million on paying younger players that have limited leverage with team control on arbitration...
You may be right, but signing/trading for say 3 above avg bats would keep the window open for another 3 years. Also there would still be prospects down on the farm. The pitching down on the farm is still deep and you would still have guys like Baez/Janek/Brito etc... plus 3 years of draft picks to re-stock the farm. I believe Dana is capable of adding 4-5 top notch prospects each year to the farm system in the draft/international FA. So that would give the Stros 12-15 new top notch prospects in addition to the 10 or so top notch prospects that would be down on the farm now. What you're saying is you dont have faith in Dana's ability to be at the top of his field and if he's not at the top of his field then he should be fired. I guess I've got more faith in Dana than you do, although the change in minor league instructors worries me because they're moving away from a proven plan and more into how old school baseball guys do business. Bottom line is this is the window to win championships and if they've got the money to add 3 bats to the MLB roster they should do it. The farm and FA is meant to fill in holes that currently exist on the MLB roster. Like somebody once said, prospects are cool, parades are cooler.
I have zero confidence in Dana, and feel like there will be even more moves this Winter that will expedite the closing of the window. Probably not his fault, as Jack Easterby, I mean Jeff Bagwell, will be in Cranes ear again. This team should still be good enough to win the WS for the next 3-4 years, as we all know.
So it’s come to this. wRC+ has overtaken OPS and xFIP is the new pitching barometer. I guess I should try to get my brain around these or I won’t understand baseball anymore.
It’s not that hard. wRC+ is not perfect by any stretch, but it’s a much better stat than OPS when looking for a way to compare offensive production across players.
My calculations have the current CBT payroll at $230M. $143.97 guaranteed (7 spots) $56.2M arbitration (9 spots)* $8.0M pre-arb players (10 spots) $21.77M benefits/bonus/ minors on 40 man *For arbitration, I took the average of: MLBTraderumors, Spotrac, and Baseball Prospectus estimates and non-tendered Urquidy. CBT levels are $241/$261/$281/$301 Available: $11M/$31M/$51M/$71M No chance to get under 1st level. Not much benefit to staying under 2nd, if already over 1st. Penalties escalate at 3rd level. I think they should keep $5-$10M for the trade deadline and stay under the 3rd Threshhold. $41-$46M to spend this offseason.
Use whatever metrics you want to use. There was far too many below avg bats in the Stros lineup last year and that's why they're sitting at home.
