He did catch one of the best pitching staffs in MLB last year. So it's not like he isn't prepared, lazy or dumb.
That’s actually the beauty of that lineup. The 2 riskiest/weakest positions (CF and 3B) would each have several very high ceiling prospects potentially be ready by midseason; Melton, Cole, Leon, and Corona at CF, and Matthews, Dezenzo, Whitcomb, and Williams at 3B. So both positions may be naturally upgraded if Meyers or Urshela flounder.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, I never want to see Meyers on the Stros again. In addition to the moves you proposed, which I like very much, an Austin Slater type FA would make me very happy. A league avg bat who's a good (not as good as Meyers) CF.
I really don’t understand the hate for Meyers. If you take him for what he is, he’s a valuable player. He needs to be on a team with a really deep lineup, but he’s got a place in the league as an everyday player. He may have been the guy who suffered the most from the collapse of Abreu and McCormick; if those two guys had hit as expected, Meyers would have rarely batted higher than 9th and he’d have been one of the better 9 hole guys in the league in one of the most productive offenses in baseball. Instead he was often asked to hit in the middle 1/3 of the lineup where he’s streaky and frustrating to watch.
Again... after witnessing Berkman in center, I really appreciate high quality CF defense. It also took me Brantley-esque time to return from his shoulder injury.
There were 39 CF that got at least 100 PAs vs LHP in 2024. Jake was 8th w/ a wRC+ of 119. It's not his fault he has been misused. He should ONLY be starting vs LHP and when extreme fly ball pitchers start for the Astros and never hit above 8th in the order.
Clearly you're done if you're questioning whether Diaz is a better hitter than what we used at 1B this year. Good luck with that....
That’s still a bit of an undersell. He should play against all LHP, and in those games he can be a 7 hole hitter even in the best of lineups. He’s a bad hitter against RHP but not unplayable, so I’d say he should play against RHP when the Astros SP has fly ball tendencies and bat 9th. He should also come into every game where his team has the lead in late innings. All in all he’s probably maximized as a 350-400 pa guy who plays in 100-120 games. But at his production he’s still a ~$15M/yr player in terms of value, and he’ll probably maintain that for 3-4 more seasons.
Yainer had a wrc+ of 117 last year and Christian Walker was at 119. Not sure where this perception that he wouldn't be an above average hitting first baseman if played there is coming from.
People don't value defense correctly. Even teams generally trust hitting over defense, though, that is likely because defense doesn't typically age well. The Astros have made a ton of bets on great hitting players/prospects, but also tended to balance the budget with cheap, defense first guys. I tend to be very skeptical that defense-first players can be traded for equivalent hitting value (i.e., if you replace Meyers, it is probably going to cost more money than it is worth such that other actual holes aren't addressed well). I tend to be very skeptical of trading MLB value (i.e., guys worth their salaries) from a thin team to try to fill holes.
Walker is an above average defensive 1B and he's still an above average hitting 1B. I'm guessing he would improve the team a lot, though it would cost a lot of the available resources to get him, and I would not look at Caratini as a source to cut budget.
And you're overselling him. Stop with the 400 pa. I'm fine with Jake hitting vs. LHP and fine with him coming in as a defensive replacement in the right situation. But then, he should also be lifted for pinch hitters when the starting LHP leaves the game and a righty comes in. Jake's an elite CF in terms of tracking down balls, but he's got a weak arm. Add that to the weak bat and that's hardly $15m in value. Nobody would pay him that on an annual basis as a free agent. He's certainly a value at his current pre-arb contract.
Nobody is saying he wouldn't be above average offensively, but he would also likely give a fair bit back on defense and be average overall. So you would turn a near elite catcher into an average first baseman. That's not a switch you make.
Walker had a 0.1 dWAR last year, so that make Walker a solidly average fielder. Walker will start next season at 34 years old. His last season WAR was 2.6, which was a decline from the prior year. Walker made almost 11 million last year, so he outperformed his salary. Methinks Walker in FA will sign a 3/4 year contract at 15-20 million per year, so that might be a little rich for the Astros.
dWAR is positional based, only the truly elite 1B end up in the positive. He is one of the best defensive first baseman in baseball, maybe the best.
I said first basemen. Using dWAR, I see only 3 1B that were better defensively (Olson, Santana, and Mountcastle). By FanGraphs, he's the best defensive 1B. So while you are correct that would make him a roughly average fielder when comparing him to all fielders, I feel very confident in saying he's an above average defensive 1B. Granted, I would take above average catcher defense over above average 1B defense provided the salaries and hitting aren't too different.
I think 400 PAs is probably a bit higher than I would like, but not much. I'm thinking 300-350. I do think he will never see $15M. I see him getting up to about $8M in arbitration unless he wins a gold glove, or gets lots of counting stats next year due to over playing him again. He will likely have a Jake Marisnick type career, playing for a very long time, but a lot of minor league deals, lots of AAA time, and a lot of teams. He has many flaws, but his strengths are valuable ones - He can flat out run down balls in CF, He can hit left handed pitching, and he is a very good baserunner (despite what many have said). For the next 3 seasons he should start vs LHP and hit at the bottom of the order = approx 200 PAs. He should also start when extreme flyball pitchers like Blanco and Arrighetti (and Urquidy or Verlander) start and not opposed by a lefty, which is likely another 140 PAs. He will likely get pulled in his final PA in many games, but also PH and get a PA here and there after being a defensive replacement or pinch runner. They key to filling CF for the Astros is either finding an everyday guy like Robert, or a platoon partner for Meyers, because neither Chas nor Dubon can hit RHP either. Leon hits both equally, but looks to not be ready, and likely a RF not CF. Melton hits RHP well, but needs at least another 1/2 season in AAA.
