It is and has been a toss up. Watching people getting giddy over various pundit models that all drift around it being a coin toss is hilarious. The one thing I will say that Nate Silver said that is likely true - is that Harris needs to take some of the "weird voters" for herself if she wants to win. She is at around 49% and needs 51% to see shifts in the Electoral College that give her a very good chance to win the Election. Trump is at around 47% and needs 50% to win the Electoral College.... so that 4%-5% undecided, Harris needs to get half or more of it to likely win.
Nah it hasn't been a toss-up since a couple days after the first debate when the Kamala hype finally died down. Vance dealt a pretty good blow, then Kamala's dumbass answers on her media "blitz" (that the entire MAGA O-Line was able to pick up) was the final knock out for her campaign. We're seeing heavy signs of desperation now coming from the Harris/Walz camp. You love to see it.
And Trump also. The time has changed. I don't remember a POTUS candidate appearing on long-format podcasts, and now both have appeared on multiple of them. Harris could join Joe Rogan podcast in hunt for male votes, sources say | Reuters Oct 14 (Reuters) - Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris could sit down for an interview with popular podcaster Joe Rogan, whose audience leans heavily towards young men, as she works to shore up support with male voters, sources said on Monday. Harris campaign officials, in the final stretch of the U.S. presidential campaign, met with Rogan's team this week but an appearance has not been confirmed yet, said two of the sources, who have knowledge of the matter. Rogan, who runs the most popular podcast in the United States, has a highly coveted and devoted following that numbers in the tens of millions. The interview will offer Harris an opportunity to make her case to his followers, as she works to shore up support with male voters and Black men in particular. Numerous public polls suggest Republican nominee Donald Trump could outperform among young men of all races. On Monday, the vice president released a new set of policy proposals to appeal to Black male voters and her campaign is ramping up outreach to the typically Democratic voting group. Her campaign also announced she will sit for an interview with Fox News, whose day-to-day programming is heavy on conservative punditry that often explicitly supports Trump. On Monday, Trump also indicated he plans to go on Joe Rogan's podcast before Election Day on Nov. 5. Trump and Rogan have sparred in the past. As recently as August, Trump took a shot at Rogan on social media platform Truth Social but later called him a "good guy." In 2022, Rogan said he is not a Trump supporter and in August said he preferred Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for president. Kennedy has since dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Trump. The appearance could offer a shot in the arm for Harris and Trump as polls show an incredibly tight race between the two candidates that is expected to come down to the results in seven swing states. In March, Spotify (SPOT.N), opens new tab said "The Joe Rogan Experience" had 14.5 million followers, almost triple the platform's second most popular program. He also has over 19 million followers on Instagram and 17 million followers on YouTube. A poll by YouGov last year found that 81% of his listeners are male and 56% are under 35 years old, feeding the perception that he has a direct line to a cohort that polling suggests tends to support Trump over Harris.
Kamala Harris going on Joe Rogan would be very ballsy. Trump didn't do well on the Bloomberg interview supposedly - and the 60 Minute appearance was at best a punt for Harris.... Trump backed out of the CNBC interview as well. Trump and Harris going on podcasts with dumbasses that will not press them is one thing. While Joe Rogan isn't an expert, he will not take a lot of the lines that Harris and Trump have been providing as non-answers. He will keep pushing, and if he thinks Harris does poorly, he will tell his audience and discuss it with the people on his podcast.
I actually like POTUS doing these long-format "interview" / podcasts. The short, traditional interviews rarely give the audience a sense of the thought process and motivation, nor do they show the person in their "more natural" form -- talking more casually in a more informal environment. I think it has the potential to help de-partisan (is that a word) a very politically partisan nation.
Considering long-form podcasts are typically 45 minutes+, Trump has already been on several of those this election cycle already. I think this is part of the reason he held up well during the Kamala honeymoon period in August. Also Joe Rogan never really presses his guests on things and is usually very agreeable with them, so for those looking for a real critical interview when he sits down with Trump and/or Harris are in for something entirely different.
I’m still cautiously optimistic for Harris. I think the Democrat turnout machine is going to make the difference but agree it’s very close.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea for Harris to go on Joe Rogan and think it’s a good idea to go on Fox. At this point I’m not sure it will make much of a difference though. I think as just this page shows opinions are largely locked and no matter what Harris says will change much minds. At the same time we see Trump now just playing music and swaying in stage than answer questions. obviously in something this close marginal changes can get magnified but I still think turnout is going to make the difference.
To add another thought to my above posts. Harris doing more interviews and appearances isn’t that she will over a lot of undecided voters, there are very few, but to continue to motivate her voters and voters leaning towards her. We saw two weeks ago when Democrats and pundits were doing handwringing about the lack of appearances by her and Walz. She needs to keep showing up to keep the enthusiasm going.
