You guys do know that all of this “Kamala’s internals” narrative is coming from one guy Mark Halperin who claimed to have conversations with sources and then Halperin’s quote got picked up by FoxNews on Wednesday and now it’s a narrative. That being said yes the polling, even external, has shown that post debate Kamala’s surge has capped a bit around a 2 to 3 point lead nationally which means that the race is basically tied because even at 3 pts nationally there is reason to be concerned that really since Bush the Republicans win the EC even when the Dems are up in the popular vote. So yes it doesn’t take an insider to see the data and I’m sure Kamala’s team is frustrated as are all Dems who don’t understand why half of the country would vote for a convicted felon who is also liable for sexual assault who also is openly running on overturning democracy to be an autocrat etc etc. So yeah of course Kamala’s team is concerned but so are a lot of people but that doesn’t mean the stupid pollymarket is accurate because as I said there’s a billionaire on the pollymarket who continually dumps millions every few days and that skews the numbers you see here. Kamala’s team is right to run the race from behind as if she is the clear underdog which she is because obviously propaganda works and a large amount of this country is clearly done with Democracy and is actively choosing to remake our country to operate much more like Russia’s corrupt system of autocracy. The voters have their reasons that we don’t need to argue about but the fact is isn’t not 65% of Americans. We are arguing whether it’s 49% of 51% which is the problem. Either way unless the fever breaks after a Kamala win Democracy isn’t likely sustainable here much longer. At some point yes this MAGA anti-Democratic electorate is going to win an election at this close of a number either way you slice it based on the current polling averages. Fck the pollymarket.
@Salvy @CrixusTheUndefeatedGaul woke on woke is my favorite Like when the trans person gets dissed by a lesbian @No Worries @rocketsjudoka
I’ve been saying this for at least a month, and now someone has quantified it. There’s a 40% chance that either candidate could win all the swing states, giving them over 312 electoral votes. A shift of just 3% in one direction is all it would take, and that’s within the margin of error for most polls.
That isn’t what he said. He said that there isn’t the level of excitement in the black community as when he ran …. Which isn’t shocking, he was the first… it was a big deal.
It's not because he was first. It's because he is a million times smarter, much more charismatic, a much much much better speaker, and he didn't come across as a cackling buffoon. I might have disagreed with many of his policies, but he is definitely an impressive person and politician. I simply cannot say the same about Kamala Harris.
Not even close to when he ran. We flew out of IAH and had our Obama tees on (my parents and sisters) and every employee but especially Black employee would express how jealous they were that we were going to the inauguration. Then there in Jan 2009 in DC felt magical as ****. I can't even describe it. Even now I look back at that time period and reminisce because it was such a pivotal part of my life. I dont know if we will ever see a presidential candidate that captured the magic Obama was able to do. Now capturing that magic doesn't equate to having one of the best presidential terms ever. And slowly throughout his 2 terms I became more conservative, but you can't deny the defining moment/cultural stamp the Obamas put on America/the world during that 08/09 era. I want to say most had hope until the Occupy Wall Street protests were raided and shutdown.
Agree - it was a historical moment and isn’t going to be replicated. Any comparison as far as excitement isn’t fair.
Yes - the “internals” is silly. However Trump is trying to use it as a spring board for momentum. I also think it’s funny some of the political scientists don’t understand why the betting markets swung to Trump after Elon was more involved… many in the betting markets think he is some oracle. At the end of the day it’s a toss up - same as it was a month ago. There is enough time it may drift one way or the other and that will determine the winner most likely. Most the Republicans I know are sick of Trump, many don’t like him - but will vote for him because his policy overall is aligned with theirs. Trump also has immigration - will try to pick off blue collar workers like Reagan did before Clinton took them back. Harris has that Trump is POS that was terrible with COVID and doesn’t care about the American people - but she also has the baggage of being VP to Biden. It is going to be close. I can’t see Trump winning the popular vote - but he has a 50/50 shot at the Electoral College and that is all it takes. Trump loses Carolina or Georgia or a couple Sun Belt states and he is toast…. Harris loses Wisconsin or Michigan and she is toast. Most Americans don’t care about either candidate. Trump has his cult of hardcore supporters and Harris has well educated women… let’s see who turns out the hardest.
Him being the first was a huge deal and it motivated high turnout and enthusiasm in the black community. Obama is a very intelligent and charismatic figure - but the fact he was the first was a big part of the enthusiasm and turnout he got.
