That's where I'll disagree a bit. I think just about the only thing that will dictate Sheppard's playing time will be the health of FVV. Sheppard isn't going to start over FVV and since FVV actually is the size that many pretended Sheppard was, they can't play meaningful minutes together. There's no real competition for the backup role, so if FVV stays healthy, Sheppard is looking at about 20 minutes a game. If FVV gets hurt, maybe he gets a bit more.
Dude is learning, keeping up over 10-15 games is not the same as playing 70-80 games consecutively as Fred did plus Postseason. Sheppard needs at least 3-4 years to gain that consistency for a quick learner. Patience is the word. You saw in the last Summer League games that his shooting fell off and he is really not that tall either. Amen is probably the guy that is going to explode this year and in the next years.
I had no problem with your saying at the Viewing that the team has to use this year as evaluation year and the Playoffs are just 2nd important. Evaluation difference - Whom you target to pay max or near max money.....and whom you don't.
Fred does not only hold the spot as the Main Playmaker but also as the 2nd or 3rd Scorer on this team and sort of closer..... That is not easy to replace immediately. It is too early to demand that Sheppard is this huge playmaker and the 3rd offensive option this year and next year. Not to say that FVV serves as a 2nd Coach on the court. Hinges on Fred wanting to chase a ring on a veteran team or becoming a backup longer term for the Rockets.
I think some of our underperforming high draft picks have set expectations too low. Highly drafted players shouldn't suck for 3 or 4 years. If Sheppard lives up to his draft position, FVV is gone. The Rockets gave him a crazy overpay because they were desperate, but unless Sheppard fails as badly as some of the other Rockets high draft picks, he's the guy after this season. One way or the other, the Rockets need to decline the option, if FVV wants to stay super cheap, that'll earn him one more season here....but there's absolutely no reason why he should want that.
There is a Grand Canyon of the scenario that you described and what I said. So did your boy Jalen Green, a 2nd Overall pick, pick up where Harden left off by Year 3.......I guess you have your Answer. And that is with us expecting that Reed is a lot readier than Green was and Fred is a far cry from Prime Harden. And we have not even talked about that Reed is more of an SG than a PG......so there is that. For a player to turn from a rookie to a winning player, to my understanding that it takes more than 2-3 years.....Ask SGA. And playing just around average is not sucking.
Yeah...I saw him relying on this too much in the SL games against Minnesota and Detroit. But his game vs Minnesota should show everyone why he's special. Instead of sulking and forcing things (like Cam did) he just adapted and started going at Nix in a different way. Just look at the little highlight clip making it's rounds. His shooting, hands and midrange are absolute chaos fuel. He has defenses looking like yakkity sax. A lot of players have been citing his maturity and toughness. He's going to be fine.
Isn't this just you demonstrating what I said? You're here saying that the failure of a Rockets 2nd overall pick has you lowering your expectations....but not every high draft pick has to be a bust. If Jalen had been a good player, the Rockets look a lot different right now....but he was a bust so we had several more seasons of tanking. If Sheppard lives up to his draft position, he should be able to give us at least 80% of what FVV brings for a tiny fraction of the price....you simply don't pick up 44 million dollar one season options for non stars when you have a #3 overall draft pick replacement.
Well, it is not Black or White, just gray ares. Also there is no indication that Udoka is eager to replace Fred Van Vleet. I have not heard of it, it all depends on whether Fred is willing to occasionally come off the bench opening up time for younger players. To your point, nope, Jalen Green and Jabari just showcased that there are more role players to good players than great players at the 2nd and 3rd Overall Pick. And Harden at 3 was just like 1 out of 12 Drafts. Has nothing to do with expectations, just mathematics and lottery luck.
He cannot because already 50-60% of what FVV brings is experience (Playoff) and veteran leadership. How does he replace that? As for other stats he can come close, but I am not sure, Udoka will prioritize his development over a Playoff Spot. We shall see, but usually a young player does not impact winning the way FVV did over the course of last year. You expect him to be as good as or better than Alperen was, and that is truly a tall order at a young age no matter draft position.
You can bring in experience and veteran leadership for the league minimum, you don't pick up a 44 million dollar one season option for those things. It won't be Udoka's call, it'll be Stone's, and no GM would want to commit 44 million dollars for one season of FVV when you have a #3 draft pick to replace them with. Also, like I said, the fact that high draft picks like Green and Smith failed to live up to expectations doesn't mean every high draft pick will be a failure. If Sheppard ends up being a failure, then sure, you pick up FVV's extension and you fire Stone for picking so many failures.
He is more likely to replace (to a degree) what Jalen Green, Holiday and Cam Whitmore brought to the table than Fred initially. Other than the highlight dunks that would be replaced by 3 point daggers. What you can use right away is his shooting and not his potential (elite?) playmaking.
We'll see. I disagree, however. The kid is a floor general, I expect him to walk on the court and be better at running an offense than any of Jalen, Holiday, or Whitmore and I expect him to be a better scorer from the standpoint of efficiency than FVV. That said, perhaps I'm too high on him and maybe he will be nothing more than a mediocre role player as some seem to think.
Your insistence that there is no competition for backup PG is ridiculous. Jalen will get time at pg with Cam at SG. Amen will get time at PG with either Jalen, Cam, or Sheppard. There are 2 keys to Sheppard getting minutes. Number 1 is his performance when he gets a chance, the other is trading Dillon Brooks to free up minutes for Amen, Cam, Tari at SF. There is a minutes crunch on this team and Sheppard will be at the bottom of the totem pole until Brooks is gone and/or Jalen fails.
Draft position means nothing , especially in an extremely weak draft. He has to earn it and I hope he does.
LOL, Jalen at PG? He's probably got the lowest BBIQ on the entire team....I know the cultists think that he walks on water, but let's be serious. Amen is a SF, not a PG. Neither of them are real options at the 1.....and the team wouldn't have drafted Sheppard if they were. Anyway, keep hope alive I guess, but I can't help but feel like you are setting yourself up for failure with these hot takes.
There is no need to not pick up his option if there is no other options to spend the money on. Free agency is not the way to obtain stars these days, it is trading for disgruntled stars or for teams that have hemmed themselves into trading, because of the 2nd apron. Big expiring contracts coupled with draft picks is the way to obtain stars going forward with the new rules.
