Great post. I thought Brown made the Abreu, Montero, and Hader deals. Not too impressed with those. So, you think they could rise from the mess they are in? That would be encouraging, because I couldn't see a way forward.
Yes. I don’t really think they’re in a “mess”. Their dead money is all short term (2025-2026). They have a good team that projects for 85-95 wins even if they don’t do anything. 2024 was not representative of their true talent level because of all the injuries. You don’t go into a season expecting to lose 7 starting pitchers for most of the season and have 3 of your best hitters deal with significant injuries (with all 3 of them not being 100% for the playoffs). It is very unlikely they get that unlucky next season.
The best option is somewhere in between these Trading Tucker doesn't mean you need to go full rebuild. If we aren't signing Bregman and they know we aren't extending Tucker, then Tucker DEFINITELY should be traded You could trade Tucker for at least two guys who are better than anyone we currently have in our farm system, and you are also getting rid of Tuckers salary. With the money you save from JV/Alex/Tucker you can go out and sign a couple of good, solid mlb players. One of the problems with the 24 version is we had some studs but also too many guys playing who did not belong in MLB. Sign a couple of solid mlb players to absorb some of the losses of Alex and Tucker and you still have salary room left plus your system is stronger If we are in the summer and are in it, you can go get some help. If not you can move Framber and add even more to your system in order to reload for 26 I think because of the situation we had when Crane took over, many current fans think we have to either go for it or totally tear it down, and we don't. What we can't do though, is let Alex, Kyle and Framber all go and get no return back for them. That is the way to a total rebuild, but not one that you really wanted
No trust in getting top caliber selections in the comp picks? I trust the scouting and development of the franchise to find quality players in the 4th and 5th rounds. Getting to develop the players in your own way is much easier than reprogramming someone else's sloppy seconds prospects.
If you trade a Kyle tucker, you aren't getting someone's sloppy seconds And sure, you could hit on a pick in that range, I mean Hunter Brown was a 5th rounder back in 2019. But your chances of hitting on picks in that area is pretty low, and comparing one shot at a pick in that range vs multiple top 100 type prospects that could come with dealing him, it's not in the same range If we aren't extending Tucker, and I think we all agree that we aren't, we could benefit from trading him for multiple controllable pieces. Right now we have some studs and some guys who were forced to play mlb baseball this year who simple either aren't ready, or in some cases aren't true mlb talent
This team has not traded AWAY a young star since before the golden age. Pence, maybe? The difference is this team is significantly more talented than that one was in 2011. That team had no chance to win, so he was worth more as a trade chip to add talent and spark the rebuild. The basic philosophy is if the team has a chance to win in 2025, then keep Tucker, and Framber, unless a trade does not reduce that chance. The problem is, this team is not the 2019 team, or even the 2017 team. Those teams were stacked with star level players. With an Aging Altuve and without Bregman, this team has a few stars and a lot of average to mediocre players. The 2017 team had 7 hitters above 120 OPS+ and 5 SP at 3.62 ERA or better. The 2019 team had 8 hitters above 120 OPS+ and Verlander, Cole, and Grienke in the rotation. The 2025 team projects to have very good SP but only Diaz, Altuve, Yordan, and Tucker project to be above average hitters and Altuve is on the decline. It would suck to lose one of those 4 guys, but it would improve the team if he brought back 2 or more replacements. 2 guys at 125 OPS+ is better than Tucker at 160 OPS+ and a guy at 90. Framber is a different scenario- SP is deep with Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti proving themselves this year, Garcia and France should be ready for opening day, and McCullers is "projected" to be. Blubaugh, Gusto, and others are where Arrighrtti was this time last year. Javier and maybe Urquidy could possibly be a trade deadline addition. Framber should make about $18M in arbitration. If you can sign Kikuchi to that deal over 3-4 seasons ($54M or $72M) then do that and trade Framber leaving your rotation full unless the injury bug hits harder than average a 3rd year in a row. The 2025 team needs quality depth more than it needs Tucker and Framber. If they are traded in the offseason, their new teams will be able to make them a Q.O. so their trade value goes down on opening day. This is a golden opportunity for Dana Brown to extend the window and put his stamp on this team.
To compete in 2025 the Astros need: 6+ (allowing for injury) 120+ level bats. No more than 2 99- level bats in top 9. No poor defenders up the middle. 15 legitimate MLB talent position players. 3+ playoff caliber starting pitchers. 8+ SP who can be expected to pitch 5 innings of less than 3 runs regularly. 3+ shutdown leverage relievers. 10+ total RP who can be expected to not carry around a gas can. I think right now, they have: 4 above 120 bats ( Diaz, Altuve, Yordan, Tucker) 2 below 100 bats ( Meyers and Dubon @3b) 0 poor up the middle defenders 10 legitimate MLB position players 4 SP who could start a playoff game + possibly Garcia, Javier, and McCullers. 6 SP who can pitch 5+ innings of 3- run baseball + Javier, McCullers, Blubaugh, Gusto, Urquidy 3 shutdown relievers* + Whitley, Dubin, Murfee, and Montero who have the talent and/or have done it before. 11 RP who can pitch with reasonable confidence of not throwing a game away. Needs: 1b, 3b, LF and/or CF 2+ run producing bats 5 additional legitimate MLB position players. The pitching staff can always be improved but does not have any holes. * gotta put the caveat that w/ RP, any one can have a suck year at any time and most can have a 2022 Ryne Stanek out of nowhere some random season. Because of this the majority of my analysis/discussion/ideas will center around the 2025 position player part of the roster.
You dont believe in Dezenzo? Put the money towards fixing holes in LF/CF/1B and give Dezenzo his chance. If Dezenzo doesn't workout then hopefully Matthews does. If none of these options workout then go trade for a 3B like Rengifo at the deadline. Main thing is to use whatever money they have to fix CF/LF/1B. I dont want them to trade Framber, but if it's necessary to fill the holes in the lineup they should do it. Even with Framber they aren't going to win a championship with a AAA bottom of the lineup. Gotta bring back Kikuchi though.
This relly comes down to would you rather have Walker at 1B and Dezenzo at 3B, or Bregs for top dollar at 3B and Dezenzo at 1B? Also a wildcard for me would be if they decide to keep Bregs then I would definitely have Baez working out this offseason at 1B. Give me Walker and Dezenzo because of the money and particularly the number of years it's going to take to bring Bregs back.
As the days pass, I think the Astros are in better shape than it seemed. I don’t think Houston should overreact to the number of starting pitching injuries they had in 2024. They have 6 really good SP who should be ready for opening day (yes, including McCullers) and another who should be back in July and a much more talented/experienced AAA rotation than they had last season. I am fine if Blanco or Arrighetti or Garcia (or Javier or McCullers) ends up being their 3rd playoff starter. I also think their bullpen is set, possibly even more than set. I think between Scott, Ort, King, Whitley, Martinez, Dubin, Murfee, and Sousa, they can find 6th/7th inning leverage arms. That leaves Abreu for the 8th, Hader for the 9th, and makes Pressly expendable. Dumping his salary frees up $14M. On the flip side, I really think the lack of depth in their lineup is their major problem, and what killed them all season and in the series against the Tigers. They need at least 2 bats, but preferably 3. They can pencil in Pena in the 8 hole and Meyers/McCormick/Dubon/Whitcomb/Dezenzo/Caratini/Singleton/whoever in the 9 hole. And their 4 star hitters can handle spots in the top 5. But they need to add hitters in the 5-6-7 holes who would be the envy of the league in those spots. Dumping Pressly and Urquidy and getting payroll back where it was to end the season would give them over $50M in 2025 money to spend. Their farm is on the upswing but they’d be unwise to trade their best prospects, so any trades will need to revolve around 2nd/3rd tier guys. So that’s Brown’s Challenge: find 3 very good hitters, all of whom can play somewhere in the field, for <$60M in total 2025 AAV and a few fringey prospects. I think it’s more than doable. I think Houston’s going to enter 2025 with a stacked roster.
Upgrade 3 spots through trade/FA. 2 OF'ers and a 1B or keep Bregs and add an 1B/OF and platoon the LF spot.
Is Baty worth trading prospects for because he will be better than Dezenzo or in the 2nd half of next season Matthews?
Sure there's an easy fix. Just gotta find a couple of bats and they have the money/prospects to fill the holes. It's just for the 1st time in a long time they have to get this offseason right if they want the dynasty to continue. As long as they have the pitching they had this season then the dynasty isn't over.
