It is not a given that Javier or Urquidy could be available at all next season. Whenever you have in-season TJ surgery, you miss a large portion, if not all, of the following season as well (like Luis Garcia this year). On top of that, you have to account for at least one other starter getting injured at some point. Before you know it you can be short handed all over again and having to pay a hefty prospect price like we did this year. Re-sign Kikuchi if possible, and if not possible, bring in a veteran innings eater. Even though JV was not effective down the stretch, just having him available to take starts provided immense value in giving the other guys some extra days off.
Before Astros Fastball Location Astros Fastball Location xWOBA for middle middle fastballs is 0.403 (basically...Yordan like production when Yordan is hot). This goes up to 0.588 as an Astro. xwOBA for outer 3rd (from RHB perspective) up fastballs is 0.235 (basically... a lot worse than Chas has hit this year). This is basically the same as an Astro at 0.243 despite throwing it more.
I wouldn't be too hard on yourself on this. The changes they made with Kikuchi turned him into a completely different pitcher.
There's no such thing as too much starting pitching. Javier and Urquidy won't likely pitch much, if at all in 2025. Framber is the only proven playoff performer among the group. Garcia has had some moments, but was an afterthought in 2022. Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti could change that next month, but to dismiss Kikuchi for 2025 before the season even ends is pretty foolish in my opinion.
I will say that his fastball usage has started to go way down. First few starts as an Astro, it was mostly slider % going up at expense of the curveball. Three straight games with under 40% fastballs. This is the way.
So Dan Plesac on MLB network said at the trade deadline that Kikuchi would be the #1 starter he would go after.
So what changed with Kikuchi you might ask? With Toronto: 49.6% Fastball 22.7% Curveball 16.9% Slider 10.9% Changeup With Houston: 41.8% Fastball 9.4% Curveball 37.2% Slider 11.6% Changeup We hold him to stop throwing that damn curveball so much, it was getting destroyed way too often, and to trust his very effective slider. The rest is history. I didn't think he would make bank in the offseason, but he's definitely making bank now. Probably out of the reach of the Astros.
Javier should be ready by July or August I hope. I feel like he could be much improved after the surgery.
We can hope but he is almost on the same schedule as Garcia was this year. In my opinion, the best thing Dana Brown can do is make a big swing at keeping Kikuchi here. Framber, Brown, Arrighetti, and Blanco should be back but the math says one of them gets hurt or has a down year. Garcia and France should be back, but they are closer to BOR than TOR rotation guys so far, though Garcia still has quite a bit of upside in my opinion. If McCullers is healthy that is a huge boon, but an even bigger IF. Javier could return in July, but could also miss the entire season like Garcia this year. Just like 2023 and 2024, if everyone is healthy it's an exceptional rotation, buy it's tough to count on health for SP in these times.
Funny thing yesterday with Kikuchi again throwing a ton of sliders and less than 40% fastballs..... Batters swung at fastballs up and out of the zone. The few that were in the zone, they didn't swing or swung late. The Mariners were sitting slider for nearly every pitch.
The three pitches he threw yesterday that were the easiest to do damage on for a hitter. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7489f6f5-5b9f-48b4-a5d0-141bb87f8dd8 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2622ca50-fda5-4967-9c74-cbc5f016042d https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2d562d8c-fb71-4f4c-971e-6bb89d9ad378 This is what happens when you throw a ton of sliders only leave three fastballs middle middle.
Garcia had his surgery on 5/19/13 McCullers on 6/13/23 Urquidy on 6/5/24 Javier on 6/6/24 Javier's was about 3 weeks more into the season than Garcia's. Don't expect Javier back next year until September at the earliest, if that. Just don't count on him at all until ST 20206.
