doesn't Donald Trump believe all American Jews are Israeli first? I'm not sure if Trump sees Jews as Americans.
I really wouldn't use 2016 as an example or a base... People underestimate how much hate there was for Hillary... I would say to use the 2020 stats with Biden... There are lot that don't like Biden... But not the hate that was there for Hillary. T_Man
I think most national polls from 2016 to today have Trump's support maxed out at 46% (aka Trump's approval rating).
There is no general agreement on this. There are a number of theories though - and those theories go both ways. We do know that the 2022 polling results were overall extremely accurate though. Polling bias is not consistent from poll to poll, which is why they weight a number of polls. Over the last 20 years, it has swung from election to election as to whether D or R have been overrepresented in polls. So the short answer is that there is no clear long term over representation of one party over another in overall polling numbers - and the general trend over time has been to improve margin of error, with the 2022 polls being the most accurate in modern history. Does that mean 2024 will be perfect? No, and it is a toss up as to whether the polls will over represent which party. However - when polling numbers come out that are bad, it is smart for a candidate to help his supporters not be demoralized by claiming that the polls are not accurate - both parties have done this in the past. The reality is that no one will know until after the election - it is a soft science. There is no consistent long term over sampling of groups by poll companies - because they end up out of business. They adjust their models often, and NBC doesn't do polling, they pay a polling company to do it. It isn't just whether abortion is in the top 3 issues - it isn't, it is in the top 5-6 though..... the issue is a wedge issue though, there are some people that will decide how they vote almost entirely on abortion. Young people are not more conservative post 2022 - young men are more conservative, but young women are not more conservative, and the polling shows overall that American's are not more conservative than in the past. There is a clear divide between men and women - especially young men and women. We have reached the point where women are not nearly as financially or emotionally dependent on men and they have a lot more control than in the past. It also makes sense that black voters would be more open to the Republican party, the longer away from the Civil Rights movement we are and as opportunities open up for black Americans. As for Gen Z, they are primarily not loyal to any particular political party. They do not like Trump, but they do not have the same sentiment towards Republicans. The same is true about Biden and Democrats.
One of my theories (and I wish I had time to research this) about the growing political divide between young men and women is that it's the "moral cost" of having Trump be such a prominent figure over this demographic's lifespan. Young women see a boorish, adjudicated sexual criminal who is proud of taking away rights they see as vital; Young men see an unrepentantly "macho" figure who doubles-down on every impulse with no negative consequences. The basic message is that a man can do and say whatever he wants and be rewarded for it time and again. We've been told forever that leadership matters. Republicans impeached a president over his character - and held his sins against his wife - almost 30 years ago. Now they've cynically propped up this comically-unfit man to the detriment of what it means to have character in the first place. How could young men look at Trump and see anything other than a template for how to behave and succeed? There are a handful of conservative posters here who always took issue with Barack Obama for being what they saw as didactic and condescending. The moral whiplash of going from Obama, a man whose very existence in office asked Americans to check their worst impulses and whose rhetoric invoked justice and the long arc of history, to Trump, whose existence in office did the exact opposite, is profound. I'm not shocked that young Americans who've only ever known Trump as the dominant political figure in America are splitting like this.
2022 Midterm Data on Young Voters (Gen Z) No major party alignment (30% Dem, 24% Rep, 28% Ind). Voted Dem +27 in the 2022 midterms. Prioritize protecting women's right to choose more than any other generation. They are up for grabs (in that they have no loyalty to any party), but they lean +27 Dem due to abortion, guns, and climate change. Today, Republicans and Trump are seen as terrible in their eyes. I see some Trump supporters throwing out weird numbers for Gen Z, like they did in 2020 with Black voters. You never know, but I don’t see any trend of Gen Z moving toward Trump, and Vance isn’t helping at all.
As for the gender gap: 2016: Women supported Clinton by 13 points, while men favored Trump by 11 points, creating a 24-point gap. 2020: Women supported Biden by 15 points, while men favored Trump by 8 points, creating a 23-point gap. 2024: Polls suggest a record gap. Harris leads by 21 points among women, while Trump leads by 8 points among men, resulting in a 29-point gap. If the gap among women and men holds, it will be hard for Trump to win.
Abortion is a Top 3 Issue for Voters. The most important issue deciding your vote (NYT - Aug 2024): Overall: 28% Economy 14% Abortion 13% Immigration Men: 34% Economy 15% Immigration 6% Abortion Women: 24% Economy 22% Abortion 12% Immigration Young Women (≤45): Nothing is more important than abortion.
To me it is really simple. For a very long time, there was a lack of actual opportunities for women, and everything in society was set with the belief that women would marry men and have children and stay home. The last 50-60 years we have seen a movement away from women staying home, and as a result less of a dependence on men for finances, for protection, for social support and for purpose. Women have realized that they can have their interests catered to on social media, they have the money to support their interests and their causes and they have purpose socially outside of being a mother or wife. With so many social media platforms and entertainment options, and with how ill equipped most men are for relationships - it isn't a shock that girls are seeking out their own interests and men are doing the same - and that divide only draws a bigger divide between the sexes. There are a lot of young women that do not really have any pressure to marry now - so they can be pickier, and not put up with as much BS as in the past. Also - when it comes to sex, women know they can always find an interested male. Women - especially young women also are hearing the actions and rhetoric from men like Trump and Vance and Anderson. It is a problem - men are lagging behind women when it comes to some basic emotional issues,
The numbers I have seen are even more extreme - and are in line with my own experience and dealing with my son and younger relatives, etc. and volunteering in schools. The latest numbers I saw was +29 for Harris for women that are under 55 and Trump was +13 for men and +17 for men under 40. We are becoming a very gender divided country - and both parties are digging in their heels on the issue.
The only thing that we've ever misread was how much resentment blue collar white people had after the Obama years. Trump won the election more because of that resentment and the 20 year campaign to villainize Hillary than anything about Trump. Trump won the nomination because the GOP has degraded to a point that reason and decency doesn't matter. Name the last time Trump or a Trump endorsed candidate has won anywhere that was up for grabs. He's been a loser for the 6 years including his midterm election. He's such a loser, that Biden who was never particularly popular kicked his butt.
He's here to address the U.N. General Assembly. There is nothing strange about using military aircraft to transport foreign leaders safely and securely, especially from a conflict zone. He's also meeting with Trump next week. You are too easily fooled.
