Even though there has been a lot of polls showing that Harris’ chances of winning are greatly improving this election is far from over. I like that the Harris Walz continues to call themselves and campaign like they are the underdog. As we saw with 2016 complacency can be very dangerous.
You’re right that Democrats outperformed the polling in 2022, especially with all the "red wave" talk, but oversampling Democrats remains a legitimate concern in some polls. Also, remember Republicans did better in 2020, especially down-ballot, because it was a general election and Trump being at the top of the ticket brought out more voters. Midterms usually don’t see the same voter intensity, so the 2022 results weren’t entirely surprising without Trump’s influence by actually being on the ballot
Except even if Democrats have been over sampled in polls it hasn’t been showing up in actual elections where democrats are outperforming polling. One theory I’ve heard is that after 2016 polls are adjusting to make Up for a hidden Republican vote and are over correcting. Yes Trump does being out more voters and in 2020 that benefited the Republican ticket. He still lost the election and not only that Democrats held onto the House and took the Senate. Republicans also lost races like AZ senate where Trump backed candidates fared poorly.
Sure Dems outperformed expectations in 2022, and some polling has tried to adjust since 2016. But still most polls oversample Dems even now, and Trump supporters/conservatives typically have an election day bump. It’s important to remember that while Trump lost in 2020, Republicans gained 14 seats in the House and performed well down-ballot. Democrats only gained control of the Senate after winning two Georgia runoff elections in 2021 resulting in a 50-50 split.
Agree, everyone needs to get out and vote. As for comparing 2016 to now it's much different. Trump is now a convicted felon. Trump has been charged with sexual assault. Trump has multiple charges and trials still coming with serious indictments. Trump still refuses to admit when he is wrong and is incapable of admitting defeat. Trump still believes he is above the law. Trump is 8 years older, and showing signs of cognitive decline. Trump is more of a pathological liar than before, which is scary. Trump has ramped up his racial rhetoric and embraced white supremacists, QAnon kooks, White Nationalists, and conspiracy theorists. In 8 years Trump has refused to denounce right wing hate groups inflicting violence upon others. More high ranking officials and Republicans than ever before are warning people of the dangers of Trump, the incompetence of Trump, the National Security threat he poses, and are calling him unfit to serve. It's no comparison to 2016 as far as making a choice. What is more important though is that every American opens their eyes and ears to the threat Trump poses to our country. Republicans need to put aside die-hard party beliefs and vote for Harris! MAGA folks won't change I'm afraid, but they aren't the majority of Americans.
They really aren't lying though. Assuming the Republicans change the rules in Nebraska at the last minute (you do have to assume they'll do everything they legally can) Kamala Harris has to win ALL of the blue wall states AND flip a likely Trump state like Arizona, NC, NV, or Georgia. Those states have almost all been Trump plus 1 to 5 throughout the entire polling cycle. Sometimes they show Harris up, but those it's obvious that the Biden years really damaged the standing of Democrats in the Sun Belt for whatever reason, and for whatever reason there has been a shift towards the right with a segment of that population. All Trump has to do in theory is just win one state... Pennsylvania. If the polling holds for everything he's led most of the way, and just flips one state he's won the electoral college. And in the event of a tie he still wins because the Republicans control the majority of state delegations. Harris Walz is DEFINITELY the underdog here. Shift towards right wing autocratic governance. An unpopular presidency (for whatever reason... I think just the negative media environment we live in makes everyone in power unpopular), and a huge electoral college advantage. Trump has only himself to blame if he loses.
It will about youth and minority turnout like it is every election this millennium. Young people and minorities don't tend to pick the phone to answer political surveys. This is why Texas has done everything in their power to make difficult for college students and minorities to vote. If they voted at the same rate rural and boomer voters, it wouldn't really be close in any purple or near purple state. The attack on abortion rights was the worst political move the right has done in forever. They've lost in every corner from an election standpoint.
... while oversampling Rs is a fact in other polls ... IIRC pollsters oversample Rs when Trump is on the ballot ... this is to compensate for the 2016 poll versus actual results which favored the Rs.
Yeah, Democrats can be lazy unless properly motivated. Hillary was a poison pill, though. Dems are lazy and need to be compelled to vote. Trump, women's rights and other fascist-freedom-limiting moves the past four years are a very compelling argument. Hillary was a poison pill in 2016. She had serious baggage with GOP voters (and some Dems), and GOP voters were also sick of having a 'liberal' president, not to mention he was black, which was a very tough pill to swallow for many people. The momentum was there for a GOP win. Still, Hillary won the popular vote with no huge drive against the GOP like we're seeing now and in 2020. Polls skew towards older people. Older people vote more conservative. I won't say that it's in the bag, but it's fair to say that the real numbers won't match the polls. It behooves the D team to go full steam ahead and not let up until election day. Trump and his sycophants aren't going to stop. Keep the pressure on, keep the W in campaigning, speeches, sound bytes and ads. Trump will continue to bury himself but this country elected him once. Fooled once, shame on you, fooled twice, shame on me.
I didn't realize they actually do that. So they literally grade Trump on a curve. Wow. haha. Can't say I blame them though. Hillary was up in the polls around 6 points most of the time, won the popular vote by 3 point's and still lost the electoral college by 1 point. Biden was up 10 to 5 points most of the election cycle, won the popular vote by 5-6 points, and only won the electoral college by 1 to 2 points. So the pollsters know there is an electoral curve that system rewards Trump and most Republicans with. If you know there is a curve, you might as well account for it.
She's going to win the popular vote, but there is plenty of reason to worry. Even if she holds MI, WI, & PA, she still needs 1 more. GA and AZ polling is definitely looking like Trump. So now we are looking at NC, NV, & the Omaha district (maybe the Maine would could come back into play, but Trump has won it the last 2 times by a decent margin, so I'm not counting on it).
I think we are having two different conversations. First, I can't see your images - but I assume they are polling. Second, I have said for a long time that I expect Trump to win a close race. Third, most the polls in states like Pennsylvania have the contest very close - with as many recent ones showing Harris ahead as behind or tied. The polling in Michigan, Wisconsin and a few others have her 4-5 points ahead. As for Georgia, that state is very hard to read - but I did not, and do not expect Harris to win Georgia - and if she wins Georgia, then she wins Pennsylvania as well. There are other states in play like Carolina as well. Also - most of the recent national polling has Harris at +4-5, and at some point - it becomes a tipping point in the close states. My entire point on labor unions supporting or not supporting a candidate was that I don't think it matters so much in 2024 - Union members now are not like they were in the past, they vote for who they want. The idea that a majority of middle aged white men in higher level blue collar jobs were going to vote for a black woman from Calfornia was pie in the sky - I never expected it. It is all about balancing +/- this election. This election is largely going to fall down gender lines.
The higher skilled white middle aged blue collar tradesman that are disproportionately part of what is traditionally a leftist institution in labor unions is precisely why the GOP and right wing politics proliferates and spams culture wars. They want these people to be more offended over migrants, trans people, Muslims, yuppie college kids than their corporate bosses. This is the EXACT demographic that the culture wars is meant for. All the bs about "DEI", Haitian immigrants eating pets, illegal immigrants getting trans surgery etc is meant for these white middle aged union men. Without the culture wars there is zero reason for them to even consider a GOP candidate given the economic class they are part of... Organized labor.
No they don't. For all the major mainstream polls, Dems are oversampled and some by quite a bit NBC is one of the polls that oversamples Dems. Abortion is low on the list for most voters. The main issues are the economy, immigration, and inflation. And young people post 2022 are turning more conservative, particularly young men. That use to not be the case. Plus the biggest divide ever between men and women for young voters. I wonder why
If Harris is winning MI/WI/PA, she's winning the Omaha district. That district voted to the left of the nation as a whole in 2020 (at the presidential level) and has trended left since then. I suspect that Democrats pick up the Congressional seat there as well this go around. The Maine district on the other hand is out of reach. Its trending rightwards so Trump will likely hold that one comfortably. The interesting thing about the those two districts is that at the Congressional level, Democrats hold the Maine district and Republicans have the Omaha district. I suspect in 2024, there's a decent chance that control of both districts at the Congressional level flips in 2024.
Which tells me trump's base is set and the rest of the country was just not on board with another 4-years of President Biden. Short of some kind of massive October surprise against Harris, trump will still be at roughly 44-45% nationally.
