I'll take Bregman's experience in the post season as Tucker hasn't shown he can do well there yet. We'll see what happens.
This phenomenon of fans being worried about the revenue streams and salaries billionaires have to operate with is crazy. I want Crane to sign Framber, Bregman and Tucker.
It’s also just his ability to square up quality pitching. Doesn’t mean he always does it, doesn’t mean he’s even going to be worth it, doesn’t mean that being “clutch in the playoffs” is actually a thing…. But it is a skill-set.
I’m not worried about Crane’s financial wellbeing, but I also understand the reality that no one can be expected to run a business at a loss in perpetuity. I “want” Houston to extend Bregman, Tucker, Kikuchi, and Framber and sign Soto, Walker, Minter, and Burnes. But I know that’s not reasonable to expect or entertain as possible.
Some here would still argue against a Shohei extension… To be fair, the Astros should be able to afford more than one market rate star player. Altuve is the only one scheduled for that sort of pay over the next year. (Not counting Yordan’s very team friendly contract… and LMJ’s contract where his expected time out already likely factored in).
It may be time to revisit that skewed toward luck story. Eight straight NLCS games says luck has very little to do with the Astros play off success. Luck is identified as random events. The Astros have been highly consistent with no indication of random luck in sight.
I think the best chance to keep Bregman on reasonable contract is not to give crazy offer (like just b4 ALCS starts) and when he is crushing it at plate because either he takes that (Astros overpaying hugely) or just takes it to free market as starting point. Nobody matches that and if Astros take it off the table there's bad blood. Trust that owners together continue the embargo of crazy a*s contracts and get him back either on pillow deal or reasonable package. He has waited for this moment for years and going to test the waters. I really really don't want to see him go but is there still any seasons in him when he is worth over that 30m....even with leadership included. I think the most likely landing spot is either suprise "oh he went there!?" (like Nationals suddenly waking up, Corbin finally out), Baltimore continue the meltdown and out in post season quickly and new owner getting leader for boys or Mets (Vientos 3b -> 1b). Mets getting the leadership and culture of winning when the rumors keep piling up that goofy Alonso is't quite the leader of men. Somehow I have weird feeling Framber is most likely to stay. Corky guy, friends in team and maybe hometown discount? About Tucker. What he got in arb after last season....hopefully he is't pissed what was said. He brought in about 5,5 war and FO's count (in FA) one as about 7-9m if I remember correctly. He might actually get the Turner crazy contract.
I’m not worried about it and I hope they sign all three as well, but being realistic makes a better discussion than being dismissive of what history has shown us. It is far more likely that we sign none of them, than signing all 3.
Some of us just choose to live in reality. The luxury tax and penalties make it bad long-term strategy to not stay within certain constraints.
Would be good to re-sign them all? Doubt it, and most likely Tucker for sure will leave in the likes of Springer and Correa. Bregman... I can see us re-signing if no team comes with an offer he can't refuse. Or they can go crazy and sign Soto.
I am well aware of Crane’s rationale and history. I am saying that the constraints that Crane is operating under are overstated.
My guess at a formula for calculating Houston’s payroll capacity: A baseline of ~$160M regardless of how good the team is. Add ~$3M for each win the team is expected to get over 80. So a 90 win projected team could easily afford a $190M payroll. Add ~$10M for each playoff series from the previous season. So a team coming off an ALCS appearance and projecting for ~90 wins should be able to afford ~$220M payroll. Then, an individual star player may justify part of his own salary beyond how he affects the overall calculation. I think this applies to Altuve but beyond that would only apply to huge stars like Ohtani or Soto; they don’t cover their entire salary but there’s a revenue bump to the team beyond how the player impacts winning games/pennants/rings. I don’t think this concept applies to guys like Bregman, Tucker, or Framber. Beyond that, of course Crane has the ability to deficit spend. He surely banked some money from the early days when they were rebuilding and spent almost zero on player salaries, and even moreso from the first few years of contention when they were winning a ton of games on low payrolls. It’s hard to guess how much Crane has held back from those days or how much he’s willing to dip into his own pockets. But if Houston keeps winning 90+ games/year and having deep playoff runs, I think it’s reasonable to expect them to be able to field a top 5 payroll and be into the 2nd competitive balance tax threshold. They can almost certainly afford to add 1 star player. Adding 2 stars is possibly reasonable but would probably restrict them from doing much else to improve the roster. I don’t think Houston can add 3 star-level free agent salaries on top of their existing commitments unless Crane is just going balls out spending his own money to win before he gets too old and has to sell the franchise.
