I don’t think they can afford both Framber and Tuck, unless Framber will take a 2 year contract which is extremely doubtful. I believe they will only sign 1 of the 3. I hope it is Tucker.
Well if they let Framber walk that’s a problem. Only SP I would feel comfortable about would be Hunter Brown if Framber walks. Assuming Yusei is a rental.
There is no way we keep Tucker. Tucker is going to command too long of a contract. Think Correa without the health issues. We may be able to keep Bregman if he accepts a shorter contract. I don't know Framber. It depends on the length of contract other teams offer. The fact we haven't been able to extend him isn't a good sign. Every other pitcher we have kept got extensions.
Agreed. It is a problem, but so is being in the luxury tax for 3 consecutive years. I don’t think Crane will sign up for it, but it’s not my money so sign ‘em all. I think the cheating penalties impact will be felt the next 2 years. By the 27 season, I think the FO will have us back on track as perennial favorites for another decade. This year and the next 2 we should still be very competitive, but not run away favorites like we are used to. If we do sign 2 it would have to be Framber and Bregman at a home town discount for Crane to stomach the bills. If that is the case, you better hope one of Matthews or Melton reach their highest potential, because replacing a top 5 bat is a large order indeed.
If you are talking health, there are question marks about the availability of every starting pitcher for 2026. That's one reason I think Framber is the one I would least want to extend, unless it's less than 5 years. Load up on 7+ SP that are all pre-FA or on short term deals. Don't commit more than 10% of payroll to any one pitcher. Anyway, without Framber that team still has 7 pitchers who have started at least 20 games in a MLB season w/ average or better results. Can't say the same for 3b or RF
Most likely To sign for under 6 yrs: Framber -> Bregman -> Tucker To sign for under $150M Framber -> Bregman -> Tucker To have an internal replacement w/ 2+ WAR Framber -> Tucker -> Bregman To have an external replacement w/ 2+ WAR Framber -> Tucker -> Bregman To replace for under $15M AAV Framber -> Tucker -> Bregman To be willing to take SLIGHTLY less to stay Framber -> Bregman -> Tucker I think Framber would be the easiest to resign, Tucker the hardest, and Bregman the hardest to replace. I also think that of Alex walks, then Framber and especially Tucker's price instantly goes up because they know Crane and Brown want to keep as much continuity and talent as possible so the pressure to keep at least one if them instantly goes up.
If we are going to sign one homegrown guy to a big deal it should be Tucker. If I had to bet I think they resign Bregman since he will be cheaper and shorter length. Really they should trade Tucker and Framber next year if they don’t plan to resign them. Should get a haul of prospects.
Can't keep losing our best players for nothing. Sign him if you can and trade him later if necessary...
There's no reason the Astros can't field a payroll/team such as the Padres if they want to keep core members together... but even with all of them, this is still barely a 90 win team as is. Some of that gets better with more pitchers coming back, but the lineup and runs created potential has more ?'s. Will need to add or develop more talent regardless. The "wins" of this year were all from the pitching side (Brown, Spaghetti, Diaz, Blanco) and are partially off-set from the losses or positions that clearly still need upgrades (Meyers-Chas at the plate, first base)
This team, for different reasons in different seasons, has had no problem getting into the past season. The post season is very heavily skewed toward luck, but health, freshness, and talent each tip those scales some. Having a deep roster allows you to keep players healthy and fresh. Having young cheap players allows you to keep/add established veteran stars within your budget. Everytime a star leaves, it is a bigger burden on the organization to replace him from within, or develop a cheap youngster at another position to offset the salary of bringing in a veteran to fill that spot. That is why losing 4 prime draft picks ( and only having 4 picks in 2020) was a huge issue for this team. It's also why I think there is a good chance the team goes an extra year and/or $30ish M to try and keep Bregman. There is huge value in giving Brown and the organization another year to obtain/develop talent to replace Tucker, as opposed to replacing Alex w/ what is available now. If Matthews was another year into his career I think it would be different, but he's not. I think they are not happy with Whitcomb or Dezenzo at 3b. I can see: Alex resigns Dezenzo, Whitcomb, and Singleton play 100+ games (1b, DH. LF) The Astros let all FA and even some expensive arb players go after 2025 Melton, Matthews, Baez, and Janik get extensive time in 2026.
None of Brown, Javier, McCullers, Arrighetti, L.Garcia, Blanco, or France are or have the potential to become Aces. Brown may be a #1 at some point and occasionally a little more. Some would call Valdez an ace, I have him as a #1. Pitchers at either of those levels of achievement are quite rare and the cost to replace them is very high. There are at least a couple of 3rd basemen and a couple of outfielders in the Astros systems with the potential to become reasonable replacements for Tucker and Bregman.
I would say that Brown or Arrighetti rising to Framber's level is much more likely than anyone in the Astros' system rising to Alex or Tucker's levels.
Framber should be the least expensive to re sign in years or dollars but he would be the most difficult to replace. He and Tucker are still under contract for next season. Therefore I see no reason to address either till at least the all star break of 2025 perhaps later. I would prefer to wait to see what happens next season before commiting. Bregman could surprise me but I think the Astros see him as the more expendable of the three, and they will offer him far less than he expects.
I will take am above average SP every day and twice on Sunday over a hitter...................it would kill me to lose Tuck but I dont see him signing what Crane will offer, hope I am wrong and the way they haggled a few years ago over arbitration is not going to help
If Crane signs Walker, puts Dezenzo at 3rd and trades for an Austin Hays level OF the team should be fine. I wonder if he could backload the contracts to where the money comes due after LMJ/Abreu/Montero come off of the books. This would give Matthews/Melton/Baez etc... a chance to develop properly. I wouldn't mind bringing back Gamel on the cheap.
