Jabari's shot creation and 3pt shooting ability last year was just not good enough to be an efficient 17ppg scorer. Perhaps he improves in both regards this upcoming season and reach that point. His stroke and age both suggest this is very possible. But he wasn't that capable last year.
Vecenie is probably higher on Jabari than he should be. I do think there is a big difference in Chet and Jalen Williams, guys producing a lot and efficiently then Paolo, a guy producing a lot, but at a Jalen Green,KPJ-like efficiency. Paolo is already treated by most like he's already carrying a great offense. Sure Paolo's got better potential than Green because he's bigger, but current offensive value between them is very similar, IMO (Paolo is a better defender). I think Jabari will be a fine starter. For guys his age or younger (based on dunks and threes age cut offs and estimated wins), JSJ was the 5th best NBA in estimated wins. Guys that can't drink alcohol legally, generally are not good players in the NBA. Caveat: I'm typically lower on guys that perform better than average on difficult shots, but have trouble finding ways to get easy shots.
The Thunder are a weird team that has benefited from an unusually high percentage from 3. Variance didn't seem to apply to them last year. Both Jalen (43%) and Chet (37%) shot above what people expected them to from 3. Jalen Williams percentage shot up a staggering 7 percentage points from his rookie year. Lu Dort shot up 6% from 33 to 39. Chet was a 40+ shooter most of the year until his legs wore down a bit. Jabari shooting from anywhere on the court is a better shot than almost anything else we have that isn't Sengun 1v1 in the deep post or Amen 1v1 on the way to the basket (or a Reed Sheppard 3). Once he gains some mass and can incorporate a Lamarcus Aldridge style post up game, he's going to be very difficult to stop. He will be bigger than Durant when he gets his man body. He won't play like Durant who is essentially a 6-11 shooting guard. I see him ultimately as a better Lamarcus Aldridge in the end.
I don't get how Paolo has better value than Jalen because he's bigger. Being bigger is a means to a end. Being bigger should give you them means to be more efficient. For their careers they are about the same efficiency wise. So that means Green has talent per inch of height than Palo in scoring. Green has some unicorn traits that Paolo doesn't with his agility and acceleration being historically elite.
This may be the case, but they have actually produced and done it efficently. Jaylen Brown and Donovan Mitchell made the jump from producing a lot inefficiently to producing a lot efficiently, but it doesn't happen that often.
Amen Thompson is in the 7th percentile in points per possession on isolation possessions in the league. As in he has one of the league's worst efficiencies when going one on one in the entire NBA. Maybe you are referring to in transition? How do you get your basketball takes?
Yes, I said that they have been about as efficient offensively. I think Paolo has better potential as being bigger is a means to be more efficient. Mostly, I think guys that will guard Paolo will have worst lateral movement (i.e., any improvement he makes will likely matter more than Green because guys guarding Green will be more agile and more used to guarding primary ball handlers). Green has great agility and acceleration. Just as Paolo hasn't used his size effectively to create easy looks, Green hasn't used agility and acceleration to get easy looks consistently. I think both Green and Paolo have potential to become consistent high producers that are efficient, but so far, both's lack of efficiency have limited their offensive value. They are still both better than average offensivelty, but being better than average is not good enough to be a primary ball handler when playing teams with great on ball players.
Now he is more like rebounding Chandsome Portions. LMA was one of the craftier post options with a Gasol-esque midrange game. Bari does a lot of things above average outside rebounding but he is Master of None right now.
The LA comparison is better than most in this thread, but remember that Aldridge was a scoring machine from 18-feet in. Jabari would need to not only become more consistent, he'd need to improve so much that he warrants double teams at times. Still a solid comparison, though.
Aldridge was bigger. He had a almost everything except a 3 pointer. He had a toughness and presence inside that Jabari currently lacks but the stiffness and post games are similar. Jabari should be the middle point of Klay Thompson and Lamarcus Aldridge. Not the best player on a team but definitely could be the second best on a title team. Not sure if he will be but that's the high end outcome. We'll know a lot more by the end of this season but anyone that thinks he's going anywhere should go get a stress pillow or something. Amen/Reed/Jabari are the staples. Permanent marker. Sharpie. They aren't going anywhere. Everyone else is still a question mark. Some more than others.
He does look like a better Channing Frye, and Frye was a pretty decent shooter at his highest. Only thing is Frye was not much of a rebounder. Partly because his minutes per games were low and he was a spark off the bench type. Very underrated as well. Became a championship level role player late in his career. Highly sought after.
I agree with all of that, but I consider the fact he was one of the worst players in the league his rookie year, so he showed significant improvement. If he doesn't improve at all next year or in the future, then you're right. If he can increase his 3% from 36% to 39%, maybe grab an extra offensive rebound, it shouldn't be too difficult for him to add 3 more points per game to his average. Also, if he improves, we will see his minutes go up as well. I am playing Devil's Advocate, I don't think he will average 17 next season. I also feel that unless he regresses, he should get close.
If Tari is healthy and fully recovered this coming season, I think Jabari will have a huge fight on his hands to maintain 30+ mins/game. Some guys will go next level, other guys will flatline and lose floor time. It's gonna be interesting with Tari returning and Amen and Cam starting the season as key rotation players looking for even more playing time. There will be some losers because minutes are a zero sum calculation that always equals 240.
His usage rate was 17.2-17.8. Projection is that he would not take much Usage from Alpe, FVV, Green and Amen. Sharing Usg with Tari.
Amen and Jabari, absolutely. Reed? He hasn’t shown squat. He is far from untouchable. I like him and hope he succeeds quickly. I think it is a long shot he has an impact this year.
I hope Jabari focuses on threes, defense, rebounding. If he gives us 40% on threes (at least 2/5 per game), better paint protection, 11 rebounds and 1.5 blocks, I would be delighted. We don't need him to score more than 14-15 on average.
If he does that he should at least be in the running for MIP or all-defense 2nd team. He needs to quit trying to become Durant and muscle up and get meaner on the court. 11 rebounds a game would be incredible.
