I think this comes down to how much one values 2027+ wins. I just have a hard time seeing the Astros try to win the World Series in 2024-2026 and be able to do the same in 2028-2030. For the Astros purposes, trading a prospect that wasn't likely to help in 2024 for a rental is like trading 2 years of the prospect in a competitive years for 1 of the veteran rental(other than opportunity cost of trading for someone else). I'm skeptical that other teams were willing to trade better pitchers than Kikuchi for what Astros gave up for Kikuchi.
Just want to give a shout out to Astros pitching coaches... if you looked at the early season Brown and Spaghetti looked dreadful, Kikuchi with Blue Jays about the same... now all three are pitching at near-ace levels
Very true and the Astros gave up the farm to get Randy Johnson as a mid season rental. But you hardly ever see anyone complain about the outstanding careers of the fellas the Astros shipped away. It was a win-win trade for both teams. Yikes I am seeing the numbers that Will Wagner is putting up, and it is impressive. Considering that Bregman is likely gone next season, Wagner would have been an option to step in to handle the hot corner. But I think the Astros are betting on Brice. Much like they saw internally what they had with Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz, and went all in on Diaz. Kukuchi has pitched every bit the #3 guy that Brown said when they acquired him at the press conference. And I am going to be anticipating that the Astros give him a competitive offer to resign him. A rotation of Valdez, Brown, Kukuchi, Arreghetti, and Blanco / García / Javier. Would be impressive. And if Verlander wants to sign for a reasonable contract to chase those historically amazing numbers, I figure he could always be in a 6 man rotation to keep him fresh. Hardly any teams in MLB can ponder a 6 man rotation, and have a realistic chance of winning.
I am all-in on a 2024 World Series run, but at the same time I can't help being excited about next years team, especially the rotation. Framber, Brown, Arrighetti, Blanco, and Garcia ( TJS recovery is all but a given these days) along with France for depth. Of course McCullers could come back but must be considered a long shot at this point. Still, he's good enough when healthy to be a big contributor. If Kikuchi, or maybe JV can be brought back this rotation is a weapon over 162 games, and also in the playoffs.
or maybe other teams are hesitant to trade their pitchers to the Astros only to watch them unlock some massive skill set from the pitcher. See Pressley, Cole, JV, etc. even the Rangers look silly after the Ragans trade (though they won a WS so prob worth it to them)
If history has shown us anything you need 7 or 8 starters at minimum. I'd definitely try to resign Kikuchi. I'd also try to get a guy like Nick Pivetta. Not going after Lugo or Wacha or one of those type guys hurt us this past year. I don't think we will make that mistake again.
Everyone conveniently forgets that it was Josh Miller leading the best staff in baseball history in 2022, not Strom. Love Strom but Miller has deserved his flowers for years.
I agree with your whole post except this part. I suspect the 6-man rotation would be a negative for JV given he is desperately chasing 300 wins and will need every start possible to get there. Keeping Bregman or otherwise convincing him the lineup will be strong would be the best argument for him, along with a great bullpen (which we have, though it and the lineup have let him down a few times).
Hopefully Brown has learned after watching 2 seasons of an unbelievable level of injuries to the rotation. I admit I thought 2023 was a fluke but learned my lesson. The Astros should make sure they go to Spring training with an expected rotation of 6 healthy bodies, 3+ additional options at the MLB level and at least 1 or 2 AAA prospects who are likely to be ready during the season. Rotation: Framber, Brown, Arrighetti, Blanco, Garcia and _________ Additional options: France, McCullers, and __________ AAA: Blubaugh, Gusto, Gordon Bringing back Kikuchi or JV and signing a veteran journeyman project would be a great off season.
Also if Wagner had stayed tucked away in our system no one would be clamoring to play him this year or next
Still not a big fan of the trade as I think too much went out for a 1 year rental, but the few media and fans that didn’t roast the trade said “the Astros clearly see something in him and they got the guy they wanted and didn’t care about the cost” and they sure have been right.
I would have thought this 2 years ago, but JV is smart and informed. He understands his body is breaking down a 6 man rotation on a proven 90 + win team like the Astros is better than a 5 man rotation on a potential 90 win team. The difference is 5 starts (27 vs 32) and that can be adjusted somewhat by skipping a guy during an off day. I think he understands he is more likely to get those last 40 wins but starting 28-30 games in Houston on 5+ days rest than starting 32-34 games on 4+ days rest on another team.
He won’t be back until late July earliest but given how it’s gone with McCullers and Garcia I wouldn’t count on Javier for anything next season. If he pitches it would be a bonus.
