I agree with this, but the difference is not nothing. According to Baseball Savant, McCormick and Dubon make about 3% more plays than an average LF and Yordan makes about 7% fewer. So far this year ( LF only) Yordan 78% successful plays Dubon 91% successful plays Chas 88% successful plays. You can expect Yordan to not make a successful play when Dubon or Chas would, 1 out of every 10 balls hit to him. But the offensive benefit is much more than 10%
I'm not a numbers guy, but thanks for breaking this down. So say Yordan plays 30 of the 40 remaining games in LF, and say he gets on avg 3- 4 balls a game hit to him. that's 120-160 flyballs hit to him. That's 12 -16 balls Chas can get to that Yordan cant. (I think the number probably would be more like 10) The difference in arm strength should make up for some of the negative difference between Yordan and Chas, say 2%, so the difference is really only about 8% so the difference is really only about 10 flyballs per 30 games or one flyball every 3 games. His bat certainly makes up this deficit in spades.
The only reason why Jake is in an MLB OF is because of routes and glove. Chas is...dunno? Can't hit or throw. Dubon is an IF playing at OF due to need.
It's 30 games, plus the playoffs. If he gets hurt then it's not meant to be the Stros year. Espada isn't a risk taker. He lives in fear of what could happen. Living life looking at the negatives and not taking into account the positives appears to be Espada's way of managing. It's probably a big reason why the Stros suck so bad in one run games. Color me unimpressed, I'm a risk taker at heart.
I'll take you back to May 21st, the last game Christian Javier would pitch for us this season: Javier - out for season Brown - 1-4, 7.71 ERA Arrighetti - 2-4, 7.16 ERA Verlander - 2-2, 3.97 ERA (would go on IL on June 9) Valdez - 3-2, 4.32 ERA Blanco - 4-0, 2.09 ERA This pitching staff was in a world of hurt with no answers in sight.
and now the Astros have 3 of the top pitchers in the AL for the last few months, and that doesn’t include the early season one stud, who is now the worst in the rotation.
I just wish they would be honest about injuries Javier neck was tommy john Hopefully Yordan's isn't an ACL
The Astros have to take care of business, so let's say they win 2 of the 3 remaing games with the Mariners. Then the Mariners have 30 more games. 5 games vs playoff teams. Let's say they go 3-2. 17 vs Oak, Tex, and LAA. Division games. Those teams will play hard. Let's say they go 11-6. 8 vs StL, TB, and SF. Let's say they go 5-3. That equals an 85-77 season record. Mariners would own the tie breaker so the Astros need 86 wins and have 71 after taking those 2 of 3 from Seattle. That means they would need to finish 15-16 to win the division.
