SS Tommy Sacco Jr. is probably an underrated prospect, seeing as how he is not mentioned really anywhere. He’s a near-elite level defensive infielder with enough power and speed to keep opponents honest, and this season he’s gotten his k rate <20% while maintaining a double digit walk rate. His persistent wart is a middling slash line held down by a low babip. I’m not sure if this is due to launch angle (not hitting many line drives), weak exit velo, or lack of enough speed to run out infield hits (or some combo of all 3). But I don’t think it’s bad luck because it’s been low his entire pro career spanning 900 pa across 3 levels. It’ll be interesting to see if he has another gear next season in AAA, but even if he doesn’t, he’s probably got a future as a defense-first AAAA SS.
If you had a top 5 in the lineup type hitter at Lf full time then a Cf platoon of Meyers and melton could be a winning 8th or 9th in the order type option. But that doesn’t make him a solution in any real way. That still leaves you having to fix 1B/3B and LF in this offseason and that’s a bad outcome for the top prospect in the system (I’d take it btw).
The lack of a hit tool for the Astros best prospects really stands out among Astros prospects. That's why I am so disappointed Barber didn't work out. Guys with plus Speed, Power, and Defense but a bad hit tool look like Pedro Leon.
I think Matthews has a better hit tool than those guys, but maybe I'm dreaming on that and being overly optimistic. He and Baez are my favorite prospects (and the catcher) because I believe the most in their hit tools (or they are the youngest and I think it's less risky that they haven't developed their hit tools yet in the case of Baez compared to Whitcomb/Dezenzo/Melton).
Only 4 Astros prospects currently in full season ball have a k rate <20% this season (min 100 pa): Yamal Encarnacion Tommy Sacco Jr. Jeron Williams Luis Encarnacion
I still have faith in Kenni Gomez but he needs to add a bit of power. If this was 1985 maybe he could be a .280+ hitting CF w/ 5 HR but that won't fly in 2026 or 2027 when he should be ready.
Yikes. That's ominous. I don't think 20% is a hard line. 25% or less can still he playable depending on other tools and projected production, but that's not a good sign.
I also have hope for Matthews and Baez. This team NEEDS more guys with a 125+ type bat at the MLB level. And when Tucker and Bregman are gone, and Altuve is 2 yrs older they will need it even more. Who in the system has that kind of a projection? I'm thinking unless a guy has PLUS PLUS power, high K rates will make 125 the absolute best case scenario.
If you don’t have plus power or elite elite speed you likely aren’t going to be a productive major leaguer with a MiLB k rate >25%, and even that 20-25% range is risky. I am excited to see what Jeron Williams does next season. And I think several guys slated for Fayetteville next season could be quality contact hitters: Jancel Villarroel, Chase Jaworsky, Alberto Hermandez, Waner Luciano, Cesar Hernandez, Esmil Valencia, and Luis Rives should all carry k rates under 20% there. It also looks like Vogel, Austin, and Sullivan will be low-k rate guys. But yeah, all of their prospects with star potential appear to carry a ton of strikeout risk.
I think the hope/plan is that one or more of their Uber-athletic prospects (Matthews, Melton, Cole, Corona, Cerny, Whitaker, Fisher) has a Springer-esque transformation where they go from a high k guy to a low k guy. And I don’t think Janek projects as a high k guy (although he probably doesn’t project as a 125+ hitter either).
He's still very young. The power should come around in a couple of years. Word is that they've worked with him on fixing a hole in his swing.
Good news is if they let both Tucker and Bregs walk (I hope they dont let both of them walk) they should have the money to add the type of hitter you're talking about in FA. Plus they could always trade for another hitter (Say a Kerry Carpenter type hitter) to go along with the FA signing. But you're right they need for one or two of the young guys in the minors to come through if they want to be the dominant team in MLB for the next 3-5 years. Gotta keep the pitching staff together though.
In order to be a contender, without having to overcome a weakness at an important area, a team needs: All 4 up the middle players to be at least solid defensively, 3+ very good bats and 2 or fewer weak bats. That is a simplification but a good recipe for success. Having an up the middle guy who is also a very good hitter is a huge benefit. That's why it's so important for Diaz to stay at catcher and to play catcher. That's also why Correa and Springer were so valuable to this team.
I love Yainer. I'd draw up the papers and send them to his agent right now to do an 8/100M extension or something like that. I like it by far best if Yainer is a catcher going forward. If the kid from Sam profiles as an above average bat I'm fine with Yainer fixing first base for the rest of the decade starting in 26 (and him shifting to 50/50 duties in 2025 with Caratini in his last year). I think his bat can be special and it's more likely to be special if he's not catching b/c of the wear and tear and mental stress of working with the pitchers. I think your formula is almost exactly right. Postseason I've always said- 8 dudes on the mound and 6 dudes with the bat. That's your recipe. 6 dudes with the bat means you have a good chance 3 are going good at any one time and lottery tickets to get hot or do just enough to get by in a series. 8 arms means you have 4 credible starters and 4 guys in the bullpen (or 3 really good starters and 5 dudes in the bullpen to bridge one game a series) on your path to victory. The whole roster is more important, obviously over 162, but yeah solid defense, good pitching, 3 all star type sticks, 4 average type guys and 2 non horrendous guys is enough to get you through the 162 but you are probably short offense come playoff time.
Meyers/Pena/Altuve/Caratini isn't bad defensively. I agree though they need to find a new 1B next year.
There are so many pitchers to be excited about in this system. Hicks, Pecko, Nezuh, and True all have >3:1 k:bb ratio in their first pro season. Asheville and High A are so bad for pitchers’ numbers that so many of those guys stay complelty unnoticed until they get to AA. Alain Pena and Wilmy Sanchez are the next 2 guys I am anxious to see get up to AA. And we could see Anderson Brito take a HUGE jump if he’s able to make quick work of the lower levels and reach AA next season.
Put me in the keep Diaz at catcher group. We’ve never really had a catcher that can hit. It’s a rare blessing. Diaz is good defensively too. Wear and tear is something they shouldn’t look at till he’s 32 or so since he would only ever be moved to 1B. It’s not a Craig Biggio situation, where the Astros were looking to turn him into a base stealing middle infielder.
