Jalen Green needing to be consistent from 3 is not something anyone disagrees with. I'm just curious if you think Jalen Green is the largest reason for our offensive efficiency rankings.
Your answer was basically "Green is the farthest from his expectations given his role". So basically "sHoOtInG GuArDs shOot". I just find it weird that our shooting guard who can't shoot with poor individual efficiency and the highest usage on the team has the second highest on/off impact on team offensive efficiency. That's just odd. It's the combo of high usage and poor individual efficiency that makes t really odd. Because the higher your usage rate is on poor individual efficiency you'd imagine that would be horrible for on/off impact on offensive efficiency. The high usage rating means these on/off numbers aren't fluky. Jalen Green really isn't a "shooting guard" in a traditional sense. Traditional shooting guards usually aren't above average pnr ball handlers at age 21. He's a combo guard and his primary purpose is breaking perimeter defenses. That doesn't mean he doesn't have to improve his shooting consistency to earn a max contract and be here long term.
It's contextual. People are right that Jalen Green improving his efficiency would up overall team offensive efficiency quite a bit because he takes so many of the share of threes of the team. But the other side of the coin is that due to Green's rim pressure and breaking perimeter defenses and being clearly the best on the team to do that from the backcourt(Alpi is the best overall at rim pressure currently) that means Green's absence also tanks offensive efficiency for the team as without him the team offense has significantly fewer ways to generate easy spot up looks for guys like Bari or Dillon.
It is not odd. It is just that the 'on/off impact' numbers do not represent impact of any meaningful kind. I told you in my first post and many times before that I am aware of the on/off numbers and you keep asking questions just to write down his on/off numbers. 'Oh, how do you explain his good on/off numbers?' You have an excuse for every single thing about jalen. And if you need to have an excuse for everything, like kpj stans did for kpj, it doesn't look good. he takes bail out shots, he got the best defenders, he is asked too much, he is fighting monsters when he drives, he had silas as a coach, ... If you have something other than on/off numbers to say, I will be happy to discuss. But that's a mute point for me. And unfortunately on/off numbers was number 1 arguing point for some kpj stans and they never mentioned it again when the next season he had suddenly much lower on/off without really changing anything in his game. I promise that this is my last post this summer about jalen green with you.
Convincing. And I see you defended this claim about analytics using meta concepts of KPJ stans. Interesting but really not actually convincing. On/off impact numbers like any other analytics can be used in context. With low usage players offensive on/off impact has a higher probability of being irrelevant. When a player has a high usage, then their on/off impact has a higher probability of being kor relevant or saying something meaningful
Amen isn't a starter and Sengun is a center bringing them up in response to a SHOOTING guard who can't shoot comes off as desperation to deflect blame any way possible. Do teams really fear or even respect the 3 point shot of Jalen, one of the worst shooters in the entire league for 3 years running? If anything, they should fear his athleticism... leading to them lagging of of him even further when he's behind the 3 point line. I get the desire to blame others, but aside from 8 or so games last season, Jalen was by far the weakest link among the starters.... and they had Dillon Brooks.
Rim pressure that starts 3 feet from the rim in my opinion is easier to account for via tendency and preparation. Rim pressure that starts on the perimeter is much more likely to cause defensive disarray. Both can be impactful. Inside out shooting needs to improve in order to maximize Alpy and Jalen needs to be more open minded about finding the open shooters when he collapses things going downhill. If you can control the rim on both sides of the court you will find yourself on W column more often than not. Need Alpy to make a higher percentage of his free throws as he generates the most attempts while we're on the subject of shooting as the free throw is also a significant weapon when properly utilized and the "easiest" shot on the court.
He's not a traditional shooting guard because he can't shoot, he's not a combo guard because he's got a weak handle, low BBIQ, poor court vision, and typically point guards are the best shooters on the team So he really fits no starting NBA role.... at least not in the current era. That said, he could end up carving out a Jordan Clarkson type 6th man role if he keeps improving at the same rate.
1/2 THIS is probably the most even keeled delivery of a "Jalen needs to be better" opinion by a "stats guy" ... its from the beginning of last season, but many of the things @foggy94 hits on are hard truths about not only Jalen, but about the perceived current strengths and weaknesses and the direction this team is heading and some of this analysis remains relevant today. I wasnt able to capture the video examples he references so check them out on his site. https://www.teaandrockets.com/post/how-can-the-rockets-help-jalen-green continued
Ah the optimism of early last season. Wonder if he still thinks the same after another failure of a season is finished.
One of the bigger reasons I did want to draft Green because his filled out version would still look like Lou Williams and not massive enough in this league which is not the Gleague. Too much to overcome. He has the talent but he lacks basic IQ, understanding and a full strong body with wider shoulders.
You are totally correct. But to win a title you need an MVP level guy and more likely a player who has a chance to be in the conversation for top 40 NBA player of all time or better. There are teams that are exceptions, but those occur like once ever 15-20 years, and never win more than 1. Basically to find that kind of guy you have to put all your eggs in one basket and hope for some level of development that is not typical or probable. That is what happened with Giannis and Jokic who both one of one freaks in the respective ways. Even Curry had to develop and is a one of one in regards to size limitations and shooting prowess. Otherwise you have to be lucky enough to draft a guy like Lebron. Basically you have to take those kinds of gambles if the goal is to win a title, and you are definitely more like to strike out. That is why most franchise only win 1 or 2 titles every 20-50 years, if ever.
Okay I get that you are saying now. It's still conceptually wrong. Lou will peak playing weight was 175lbs. And was 6'2". Green was that weight maybe was he was 18. He's pushing around 200 now. Also he's multiple tiers ahead as an athlete compared to Liu Williams.
