Jalen isn't even the best prospect on the Rockets from the 2021 draft.... overall the team probably has at least 3 better prospects than Jalen right now. That said, I can understand why a teenager who thinks that the best way to judge players is raw PPG might be foolish enough to think that.
Let's put it this way. Peak bubble Jamal Murray at that moment would someone say SGA or Murray was a better prospect? Today if someone was asked who was the better prospect, what would the answer be? Sengun is better now. If Jalen Green hypothetically has a better career, in hindsight he will be labeled the better prospect. That show these things work.
I told you already. There is no hindsight. Prospect is about what they promise now. If the lesser likely, the worse prospect succeeds, then that's an over achiever. It doesn't change who was the better prospect.
Do you think better prospects always have better careers(ignoring things like fluke injuries)? And yes that's how it works in the general media landscape. In hindsight whoever ends up between will be retroactively be called the better prospect.
Jalen and Sengun are not prospects currently. When they were drafted, jalen was easily the better prospect. It hasn't worked out, but that doesn't change the past.
Players are only "prospects" during the time before they are drafted until at most, the end of their rookie contract.... and that should be. SUPER rare situations where a guy is drafted despite being extremely raw and needing several seasons to physically develop like Giannis. Typically I wouldn't consider a player a "prospect" anymore after their second season in the league. If a player gets better after that, they aren't a prospect anymore, they just developed as a player. Amen and Sheppard are currently the Rockets top prospects... Sengun IMO doesn't count as a prospect anymore, he's just the best player on the team.
Yes that's another thing. If we were to judge purely on he concept of a "prospect" then how they were perceived before being drafted would be what is considered the "better prospect". I know a lot of the type of Yao came from his international game but it's hard for me to recall what level of prospect he was before being drafted. Was he considered a weak number 1 pick or more like "this is a good year to have the number one pick" type prospect purely based on level of talent?
You already use the word prospect in the way I use when you ask 'do you think ...'? you refer to their early careers when you form that sentence. And of course not, life is not deterministic. I've never seen that in media. Whoever ends up better will be called the better player, not the better prospect. As @astrorule says the result doesn't change the past. If we are to treat Jalen and Sengun as prospects, Sengun has the higher chance to have a better career, so he is the better prospect.
Sengun has the higher chance of a better career because he is the more productive player now. That's why. Not because he's a "better prospect". He's just a flat out better player at the moment. Which is contradicting your argument because you are making a distinction between "better prospect" and "better player". So you do believe the better prospect always becomes the better player?
Sengun is the better player now, and is the prospect because has the higher chance to be the better player in the future. It could have been the case that Sengun is the better player now, but not the better prospect, because we don't expect him to develop more. Better player now, is not better prospect. Sengun doesn't have the chance of better career because he is more productive now. I told you several times, higher chance of better career = better prospect. And I told you several times that better prospect doesn't always become the better player.
Those who are better at judging prospects had Sengun ranked higher at the draft. Unfortunately I can't claim to have been one of them, I didn't watch any Sengun film till he was drafted....I liked what I saw and would have ranked him higher if I had seen it sooner. The hype machine had Green 3rd, and they were hilariously wrong.
He has a higher chance of a better career because he is the better player now. That is the evidence we use to predict who will have the better career. We aren't predicting who has the better career because of one being the better prospect. Sengun can still improve and Jalen could improve a lot more. Keep in mind Sengun has more experience being taught team concepts and playing against pros. Also young guards usually struggle with efficiency more than young bigs.
Take that Eli Wittus, Billy Beane, and all you egghead dorks. Check out this MIT Grad breaking down the numbaz for us on CFs.
Let’s not forget the biggest idiot of them all, Jeff Luhnow. Nobody was more numbers > eye test in sports than he was
Watch bruh take one stat and reduce all analytics to garbage, for FREE, on Clutchfans! Genius! Why didn’t we ever think of that?!?!? Points per GAME! My god, the brilliance!
