OK- so Astros prospect system ranked by year: 2018- 13 2019- 12 2020-28 2021- 25 2022- 29 2023- 30 2024- 27 OK- that looks pretty dreadful- lets see how they do at graduating Stars (1 every 3 years) and solid to above average regulars (need 2 every year). If you do what I suggest is necessary that means you have 12 league average or regulars on home grown deals and 2 stars on cost controlled deals. That means you should be paying something like 60M for those 14 players. That would leave roughly 150M to spend on the other 12 players to get to the first tax line. Call it that means signing 1 super star, 1 regular star, 1 regular total dude and the rest is depth. That's where I get my metrics from- and that makes sense. Now- lets see how they Astros have done by this metric and compare to their rankings: 2019- graduated- Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Tyler White, Myles Straw, Abraham Toro (how comically bad does this look for those to come from the 13th ranked system- seriously- point and laugh and mock. 2020- Kyle Tucker, Jack Mayfield, Christian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Enoli Paredes, Brandon Bielak, Josh James 2021- Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Jose Siri, Garrett Stubbs, Luis Garcia, Blake Taylor, Bryan Abreu, Andre Scrub 2022- Jeremy Pena, JJ Matijevic, David Hensley, Korey Lee, Seth Martinez, BLake Taylor 2023- Yainer Diaz, Corey Julks, Grae Kessinger, David Hensley, Hunter Brown, JP France 2024- Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenezo, Pedro Leon, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Jake Bloss, Bryan King Note- you could quibble a bit here and there about years where a guy graduated. I didn't necessarily base it upon losing rookie status nor first appearing in the big leagues- it's a little subjective and I based it upon when I noticed the guy was an Astro and felt like this was his big league opportunity and it was more than a cup of coffee. That's the last 6 years. With not extensions signed this is all guys under club control making minimum wage. The tally: Superstar/MVP God level: Yordan (if you can do this once a decade you are happy about that All Stars: Tucker, Framber (this is the guys you need to send up once every 3 years or so. SIGNIFICANT contributions to WS championship teams: Christian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Luis Garcia, Bryan Abreu, Jeremy Pena Potential all stars (and maybe super stars)- Pena, Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco (he was probably the last cut from all star team this year Solid league average regular types- Chas, Jake, Traded for interesting stuff- Myles Straw, Toro, SIri, Stubbs, Korey Lee, Loperfido, Bloss Had moments of winning play where they helped us while going to 7 ALCS in a row: Tyler White, Paredes, Bileak, James, Taylor, Hensley, Seth Martinez, Corey Julks, JP France Jury still out but I'm intrigued- Dezenzo Jury still out but I'm selling- Pedro Leon.
Meaningful farm graduations in the Crane era: 2011: Altuve, JD Martinez; Altuve wasn’t good until 2012 and wasn’t really good until 2014. Martinez was decent in 2011 but broke out as a star in 2014 with the Tigers. 2012: Marwin, Keuchel; both guys didn’t break out until years later 2013: Stassi*, Fields*, McHugh*, Peacock*; all these guys didn’t really produce until later, Stassi broke out with the Angels 2014: Springer 2015: Correa, McCullers 2016: Bregman, Gurriel, Devenski 2017: Fisher, Davis, Martes; this was a pretty down year, although Davis was a decent player later on 2018: Framber, Tucker, Cionel Perez; all 3 guys weren’t good until later 2019: Yordan, Straw, Urquidy, Abreu 2020: Garcia, Javier 2021: Meyers, McCormick 2022: Pena, Brown 2023: Diaz, Blanco, France 2024: Dezenzo, Arrighetti, Whitley 2025: Melton???, Blubaugh??? 2026: Matthews???, Pecko??? 2027: Janek???, Forcucci??? 2028: Baez???, Tredwell??? 2029: C Diaz???, Brito??? Graduating Springer/Correa/Bregman in 2 years and Framber/Tucker/Yordan in 2 years was hard core production. The farm has been very productive since then but for now it’s all been 2nd/3rd tier players without any real perennial stars.
That's the past- what about the future: Guys I think that can be stars: Mathews, Baez, Ullola, Sam Houston Catcher Above average potential: Melton, Cole, Blubaugh, Fleury, Gordon, Whitcomb, Ochoa, Gomez Guys that could be solid- literally too many to count- this is where the development guys earn their money. This entire Astros farm system ranking is so stupid.
Ha, I beat you by about 30 seconds to the post. I think you might be wrong on not perenial stars. Diaz and Brown look like it's just "not stars quite yet" and Arrighetti could be as well I think. javier has a shredded elbow but I'd say he performed at a star level in 22 and for much of 23, and it wouldn't shock me if he was an all star in 26 and 27 when he's still under contract. That's a TBD. Blanco almost was an all star in his first real season. Our years are a little different. I'm guessing you did first appeared on the team- but if you are going to call Hunter Brown 2022 don't you have to do that with Diaz as they were both September call ups. Blanco in 23 fine, but he got sent down and spent more down then up- but that's fair.
You must’ve missed the “for now” in my comment. It’s absolutely possible that some of those guys (especially Diaz and Brown) are bonafide stars going forward.
Ok. But all that's really saying with "for now" since you said perennial stars going forward (and I assume by perennial you mean for multiple years as a base line) is that the Astros didn't graduate any of those guys in 20-22. They did graduate Javier, Garcia, Pena, Meyers, Mccormick and Brown (I don't have him really up until 23). I think you could make the argument that Javier and Pena have been more than 2nd/3rd tier players thus far, Garcia, Meyers and McCormick have been second tier players (when healthy) and Brown is knocking on stardom from that group of 6. 23 and 24 are obviously too early but I'm at the point where I'd be shocked if Yainer isn't a full blown star on the post 18/19 Bregman level (or the current day Altuve level. And I'm not rational about Brown's upside.
Apparently Astros signed Glenn Otto to a minor league contract. Any chance they plan on calling up Whitley and he's his replacement in Sugarland?
We have heard a few stories about Bregman Mentoring some of the younger players this season. Has anyone got any idea if he might be amenable to a 1 or 2 year contract at third base together with an ongoing commitment to a future in coaching?
Lucas Spence hit his first pro home run for Fayetteville tonight. He also has an RBI triple. Spence is one of the undrafted guys; he signed out of Southern Illinois-Edwardsville shortly after this year's draft.
If he were interested in something like this, I'm sure it would be to get the contract down from 7 or 8 years to 5 or 6 years. Not 1 or 2. I will be stunned, and have to rethink all I have learned about MLB the past 45 years if Bregman signs for under 5 years, would be surprised if it's under 6, and am expecting 7+
If Wagner can stick at 2B I will feel a lot worse about giving him up. Clear he can hit at this level (although I'm not sure about his power potential) but I thought he wasn't thought of as a legit 2B at the MLB level.
