I’m in an airport waiting for a friend after a transatlantic flight. Not sure I want to see air disaster videos right now
This specific plane, ATR prop is known to having icing issues…and stalling Will never got on something like this
If I had to guess, then I would say the pilot probably got a warning light of some kind while cruising at FL170. In an effort to troubleshoot, he disabled the auto-pilot to take manual control. He could have reduced speed manually to cause a loss of lift and the initial dip in altitude with icing likely a factor (maybe he got an airspeed warning indicator; any reduction of speed with icing on the wings would have been a huge problem). This instantly caused the plane to drop in altitude a few hundred feet maybe due to ice (maybe up to 1,000 feet; based on the flight level data). Then, the plane actually ascended above FL170 (maybe up to 1,000 feet from the dip) because the pilot was pulling back on the stick vigorously. Then, the stick would have started shaking due to angle of attack and plane's auto safety system would have detected a stall coming and automatically pushed the shaking stick forward so the plane nose would go down. At that time, the pilot would probably have needed to add speed and reduce flaps to zero as flaps may have been partially set (like .5) for cruising previously. Then, due to the ice and in a stall, the plane was just uncontrollable. The auto-pilot, from what I've seen, is better equipped to fly a plane with ice on the wings. But, as soon as that auto-pilot is disabled in those conditions, all hell can break loose. And, we know pilots can and do panic when that stick starts shaking and they can actually do things contrary to what they should do (e.g. not steering the right direction, trying to pull back, didn't add speed, didn't adjust trim, didn't set flaps to zero, etc.). This is my guess from watching countless hours of air disaster shows on PlutoTV. lol
I happened to turn on the TV as it was being reported on live (one of the Samsung news channels) and their “aviation expert/pilot” had said that this plane went through extreme scrutiny in the 90s and was forced to make major changes to deal with icing issues at high altitudes. Apparently on prop planes (planes in general?) even a little bit of turbulence in the air flow as it goes under/over the wing can disrupt and completely eliminate the lift causing a stall. Something like 12000 were made. They’re not used much, if any in US, but still are in heavy use for regional transport outside US. I hope they were unconscious before the spiral. RIP.
I thought you were a pilot, pretty close to what the analysis has shown thing is it can stall due to so many other factors and loss of drag from ice on wings and tail apparently one of the first things pilots learn is back off throttle , rudder opposite , nose down. backing off speed and climbing is a no no. Though not super well versed I can’t think of why anybody would want to cut speed, which probably was done. before putting it on human error, this has happened numerous times and some pilots able to get out of it but the margin is thin and once in a flat spin it’s impossible to get out
We are also assuming the plane is working normally and there wasn’t a technical malfunction with the plane. Once that stall happens and that plane starts spiraling, spatial disorientation also becomes a factor. It may have been recoverable if things had gone correctly and the pilot did everything right. It’s usually a series of errors if it is pilot error. It’s never just one error.
If you had the option, ability and wherewithal to jump out of this plane as it was spiraling, would you?
You should be fine jumping last second from the plane. Your upward momentum from your jump would work.
The spiral would take you into either the wing or the tail...but it's better odds than zero So the answer is "yes"
