We sure could. I'd love to know where he is? He was here last year (and those previous years) despite not being in the lineup everyday.
With the way we've been playing I might just be a little concerned White Sox are going to come into the series next week with a chance to break that historic losing streak...
Some people also just go through bad years. Jimmy Wynn had one, oddly at age 29. I do think it is likely a lost season, but I think Chaz bounces back next season as a great 4th OF.
He was throwing, was ready to do a rehab assignment (where JV is at now), then had soreness, had imaging confirming no structural damage. Par for the course after surgery. Have to wait for the soreness to resolve, then he throws again. Trying to throw when sore (even if stuff structurally sound) will just lead to injuring something else. JV had similar issues in 2021, when there were rumors that he may be back for the playoffs or even WS… but his arm just wasn’t ready by then (but he was on fire for 2022).
Arrighetti deserves more love among Astros fans. This guy was rated lower than Tamarez in the SP pecking order not that long ago and now he looks like a bona fide MORP. Here are his numbers since 7-1: 6 GS, 33 IP, 28.9% K, 9.9% BB, 3.96 xFIP, .303 xwOBA (lower than Brown's). Pretty ****ing good for a guy who was never supposed to make it this level much less find success. Indeed, Astros' pitching has been hot over the past five weeks. Since 7-1, the Astros have put 17 pitchers on the mound with only Blanco, Dubin, Martinez, and Bloss having an xwOBA over .340.
I think all the pitchers deserve more love.... especially the one who pitched last night and has they've won nearly all his starts for the last 2 months or so. Spencer should be just fine. Just look at Brown's trajectory/course and how far ahead he is. Doesn't guarantee the same success, but the league has plenty of data on him now so its not like he's catching everybody by surprise either (and has already faced some teams multiple times, and held his own).
Arrighetti is smart, he’s a worker and he’s a maximizer. I don’t have any doubt he’s going to reach his ceiling- whatever that is. Hopefully it’s one of the top 50 starters in the game.
Will still boil down to health. Pitcher durability will be the most important metric going forward. Framber is truly underrated in this regard. As is Blanco (who has shown some signs of likely fatigue-related regression... but within games, still gets stronger as the game goes on... plus he's built like a freaking tank). Garcia also built like a tank... but everybody "small in the elbow". But still, once that eventually heals, those three alone (Framber, Garcia, Blanco) can carry a staff... and that's before factoring in Hunter Brown and whatever they want to do with JV (who's gotta be on a 1 year recurring deal going forward... which will be totally between him and Crane).
2025 starting pitching will be interesting. Brown and Arrighetti have shown they belong. Blubaugh and Gusto will likely be ready for their trial if needed. France should be ready and either a #6 starter or in AAA until needed. Framber is in his free agent year and showed us all again yesterday why he is anchoring the rotation. He will be $20Mish in his final season of arbitration. Based on the market a good (not even great) Season will likely get him a 4-5yr deal at $25M+ AAV. Blanco has worn down, much like Brown last year, in his first season in the rotation. He has proven he belongs, but is most likely not as good as his first half. I expect him to be closer to a #3-4 than a #2. Theoretically McCullers and Garcia will be back. McCullers has #1 stuff but zero durability. He may end up in the bullpen, or part of a full 6 man rotation over 162 games may help him stay (mostly) healthy. Garcia still has #3 upside and recovery from TJS is pretty automatic these days. Javier and Urquidy (if not nontendered) won't factor into 2025 but can fill holes in 2026. Theoretically there are enough bodies but 2 years in a row we have seen that is never the case in practice. Opening day 2025 W/ 100% health: 1) Framber 2) Brown 3) McCullers 4) Blanco 5) Arrighetti 6) Garcia 7) Blubaugh 8) Gusto 9) France. I would really love to see them bring in a guy who can slide into the top 6. JV is at 260 wins and we all know he wants 300. That's going to be very tough now. It's really hard to expect more than 20 starts and 12 wins from him which means he will likely need to pitch into 2028 at age 45. Still if he wants to go for it and wants a 1yr/$18M or 2yr/$34M deal it may be worth it for what he does bring to the team. He may also buy into the 6 man rotation for health and effectiveness. That's 27 starts and maybe 14-15 which could get him there in 2027. The Astros may really want to keep Kikuchi after "fixing him" (we will see the progress today) and he likely won't be overly expensive but this team has very little room within the CBT and he will likely still want 4/$80M+ if he has a great August/September. Alcantara and Luzardo are probably available from Miami and would fit very nicely if a deal can be worked out. We will see.
Astros have to add a playoff-caliber SP this offseason. Brown and Framber are good, the rest of the guys have value but come with major questions. They should not give Verlander more than $15M/yr and no more than 2 years (preferably 1).
Blanco may be wearing down, but he's still giving the team basically 6 innings of 3 run ball. I expect his career to take on Hunter's trajectory next year. I expect Kikuchi to be brought back if he pitches well. Dana probably will some of the excess pitching to fill in needs at 1st, 3rd, CF, LF. I don't expect Dana to be able to fill all of these needs, but I think at least 2 of these needs to be filled
I agree on Verlander "should" but Crane is likely to go a bit higher on him than any of us want. As for the playoff starter, I think it's a luxury that would help but not necessarily needed. I think Framber and Brown are already there. Only health keeps McCullers from it. I think it's 50/50 that Arrighetti and/or Garcia get there before October next year. What I don't want is the team to wait for the trade deadline again. It's tough because there is not much, if any, payroll within CBT and the penalties go up in yr 2. With 9 possibilities on the roster and no money, what will Brown do? It's probably another - "somebody Crane wants or nobody"
Crane has been fairly consistent that Verlander, and his money, is somewhat separated from the overall budget concerns. Same likely applies to Altuve. He's attached to him (both personally and financially). Wouldn't surprise me if JV stuck around this organization post playing career in some capacity... although really intrigued at his desire or willingness to be a future manager (he's mentioned this before). He's a great resource for guys like Spencer/Brown who have mentioned their work with him this year. JV himself didn't think he'd take to mentoring/teaching as much till 2022.
This depends on how Kikuchi pitches the rest of the year and Garcia coming back. If I'm Crane I'm spending JV's money on Kikuchi if he performs well. Bregs money on a 1st baseman and trading Pressly for a good young CF or LF.
Good post They should have plenty of money left to spend if they let Bregs/JV walk and trade Pressly. Then after 2025 Abreu/Montero/LMJ come off of the books.
