Banchero: 13.2 attempts from 2 at .493% for .986 pps Banchero: 4.4 attempts from 3 at .339% for 1.017 pps Green: 8.9 attemps froom 2 at .498% for .996 pps Green: 7.4 attempts from 3 at .332% for .996 pps Poole: 8.0 attempts from 2 at .492% for .984 pps Poole: 7.2 attempts fomr 3 at .326% for .987 pps Banchero, in a hypothetical world, would actually improve his efficency if he took more 3s similar to Green and Poole. Probably not tho because his efficiency with volume likely drops. 3s are still valuable even at low %s because of variability. Its a bigger risk vs reward, whereas a 2pt shot, unless at the rim, isnt an ideal shot (in theory) unless your shooting 55% and up from inside the arc. This is all just data sheet basketball tho, in the real world there are a lot of different variables. Shot clock, time left on the clock, etc... all 3 are inefficient players. Ones an absolute idiot, ones adored and one is loathed by his fanbase. But from an "efficiency" standpoint they are near identical.
I really don't disagree with the idea that Jalen brings the necessary ability to break down defenses. He gets good shots more often than not out of the pick and roll - he just doesn't make enough of them. I've even mentioned the idea of him playing the point rather than the 2 spot, making him more of a distributor than a shooter emphasis on distributing the ball and getting easy shots for others. He creates separation and takes what appear to be good shots but they aren't good if you can't make them at a high rate, kinda like Sengun or Amen taking 3's - they don't do it often because they just aren't good at it and they are self aware of that fact - Jalen isn't. Good shots are those that the shooter makes at a high clip, not just "open looks" or separation from a defender. As critical as I have been, I'm not ready to give up on him yet, maybe not even at the deadline or after the season because the solution for him is so simple - make shots. A GM would look real stupid if he traded him or let him go in RFA and he starts shooting just league average for the position, suddenly he is that superstar we thought we drafted. But I wouldn't give him max extension or anywhere near that unless he has a stellar season shooting wise. I think that's why we are having this discussion so often - the clock is ticking on that contract and possible extension. Jalen's issue's start with coming into the league so damn young and under developed, particularly as a shooter and with these kids being so young, that 4 year rookie contract is often too short to know what you have. Stone needs to lock this kid in the gym with the best shooting coach money can buy. I really miss the days when kids had to play a couple years in college, it made evaluating them a little easier. Just think, he wouldn't have finished college until the end of the coming season .... I think with NIL we'll see more of them go that route, or at least I hope that's the case because it makes the league better when the young players are better / more developed.
He's above league average efficiency on pnr ball handling plays with high volume of those type of plays. What drains his efficiency is spot up shooting as you can see here. He has a high volume of them and is well below league average efficiency. So there is some merit to him being more of a point guard. He also works well off dhos with those hand off efficiency numbers so it seems like he can work well with Sengun in that regard.
Thats why i said only two of those players are similar banchero is actually someone to build around and why assume the only choice is to take a three or 2 ppoint shot? Howbout just picking the best highest efficiency / wide open / easiest shot whether by yourself or a teammate Jg is 8th of of 13th on 3pt% on tje rockets rotation players 10th of 13th in fg%
I really want a lot more 2 man game with him and Sengun. They do have good on court chemistry and both do well in a PnR and DHO offense. Id love for Sengun to learn to set great screens from Adams, as it would help tremendously in these options. Id also love for green to learn shoot from 3 efficiently as it wpuld also help tremendously in these options. Just those 2 doing those 2 things would be quite powerful and a top offensive hub imo.
All these horrible percentages and yet he has the second highest on/off impact on team scoring efficiency per possession only behind FVV https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Two things can be right at the same time. Jalen Green needs to improve his efficiency to help the team and make his leap into star status. And this offense suffers a lot when Jalen Green is resting because he's probably the best on the roster at breaking down defenses resulting in eventual open teammates from secondary and tertiary assists like when he drives and kicks and teammates swing the ball around to the open shooter.
Good post. I agree with everything you say. 3-4 years is supposed to be enough to evaluate a player's abilities. But we are still not sure about Jalen. The worst thing that can happen in the coming season is that he continues to show flashes but still can't put together a good season, putting us right back in the same confusion of doubt and hope. I worry that he may one day turn into a star on another team, kind of like how Dallas gave up on another Jalen after the 4th season.
I'm kinda neutral on Banchero thus far and no, shooting isn't the only metric that matters but it is much more important for a shooting / scoring guard than to any other position. That's what he was expected to do - put the ball in the hole. I don't think it's a very fair comparison either, not only do they play completely different positions, but Banchero did significantly improve on his shooting year over year both from 3 and from the floor overall. With Jalen, we saw regression from both year one to two and year three was his worst percentage from distance in his career. Then there's the difference in volume, Jalen takes nearly twice as many 3's (7.4 to 4.4) while making them at a similar rate, kinda like I mentioned before about Amen & Sengun being self aware of their weakness and limiting those attempts.
Actually, I think the worst thing that can happen is that Jalen plays well in his contract year, then gets his max contract from the Rockets, and then proceeds not to care at all after getting his money.. like an Andrew Wiggins type situation. I just wish Jalen would play consistently angry - like that game against Phx where he was about to fight Devin Booker. He was great that game. All that talk of that mamba mentality during pre-draft, and it shows up only a handful of times per season. He needs that mentality and be in attack mode throughout the entire course of the season. I also wouldn't be surprised if Jalen's efficiency goes up if he gets more of that killer instinct.
You'd be probably surprised by how much Ime encourages Green to take those threes. Green launches threes usually when a defender goes under a screen and Ime wants Jalen to take those attempts. He also has bail out attempts when a offensive possession stagnates. I don't think it's a matter of IQ why Jalen has so many more three attempts than Amen or Sengun. For example Sengun doing pump fakes with no defender within a 5 ft radius around him harms spacing severely. He actually should be taking those shots without hesitation and it seems like he refuses to protect his scoring efficiency numbers but this does negatively impact tean spacing. Amen just flat out can't shoot. Ime wouldn't ask Jalen to take threes if he had Amen's shooting touch. Green could lower his volume of threes a bit but again you might be surprised at how much Ime encourages him to take those threes. What Ime cares more about is not second guessing your shots. That's what causes misses more than anything.
For such a good offensive rebounding team like ourselves you would think that shooting more 3's would be an understood premise.
Most teams' defensive strategy is to get the opponent's bad shooters shoot the ball. If our offensive strategy is to let one of our worst 3pt shooters shoot a lot of 3s, then we are playing right into the defense's hand.
Houston was 12th in 3pt attempts yet 23rd in 3pt % -- I'd make the case that Udoka and Co. understand the importance of being a competent outside shooting team and using it with intent. They need to ramp up the attempts and figure out how as a team to make more of those shots. Certainly you're not insinuating that one player is driving down the team percentage?
The thing is Jalen really isn't struggling the the type of threes where a defender goes under a screen. Last season, one type of shot tanked his efficiency and has little to do with your complaint.... His spot up attempts.
I totally agree that Udoka's offensive coaching has a lot of room for improvement. It's frustrating. Green shooting a lot of 3s is a big part of the problem but not totally on him. I blame the coaching for not trying better to get the ball to better shooters or to make the shots easier for guys like Jalen.
My complaint is not about the types of shot Jalen shoots. My complaint is that Jalen is shooting too many shots he doesn't hit very well. He should either make better shot selection or simply shoot less.
So he shouldn't take the spot up attempts? Do the ol Alpi pump fakes without a defender in sight? He simply has to get better at his spot up attempts. Hopefully this was a case of him exerting more energy on other parts of the game like defense and not being used to it and having tired legs because he had a rather weird anomaly of a dip in the efficiency of that type of **** compared to his first two seasons. Let's hope it's an anomaly.
But isnt a shooting guard suppose to shoot a lot? Isnt the real problem that we have a shooting guard who is bad at shooting?
Given that our offense is significantly worse when Jalen rests I don't think our stetting shooting guard is the reason why our offense sucks. But that doesn't mean Jalen Green doesn't need to improve his shooting.
