What are your thoughts on Paolo Banchero? The national media is a lot higher on him than Green and think he's one of the better first overall picks of the past half decade. I'm assuming you HEAVILY disagree with the national media narrative of Palo given what statistical data you really care about when evaluating players.
Banchero is a much better overall player than Green... but that says next to nothing. Banchero desperately needs to improve his shot selection because his scoring efficiency is trash, but he brings more to the table in areas other than individual scoring so that keeps him comfortably ahead of where Jalen is. I would argue that Banchero is a bit overrated though.
gotta give him a 3rd year, i think 3 is a fair time to start evaluating guys. If his efficiency stays lousy it closes the door on him becoming a superstar, regardless of his physical gifts. All of his shooting % increased from year 1 to year 2 though so i'm optimistic. He did post a 2.3 VORP and a positive BPM though, which is encouraging.
What are those other areas? His assist to turnover ratio is nearly identical to Jalen's. He's a worse defense than Jalen. Better rebounder but he's a pf. In fact him being a big and having a lower career scoring ng efficiency than a young scoring guard is pretty bad considering the narrative around him. Paolo https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5090/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Jalen https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency And then his offensive on/off impact is significantly worse than Jalen.
Well, when it comes to passing, he averaged 5.4 assists per game compared to 3.5 from Jalen... and he had 10.2 potential assists, so arguably it should have been higher. Banchero had a higher offensive rating and a lower defensive rating than Jalen. I mean... it's not massive, but Banchero is better than Jalen on both sides of the ball and he's a more efficient scorer and better passer in his 2nd season than Jalen's 3rd. Banchero has a long way to go to be legitimately good, but he's already better than Jalen has ever been.... but again, that means VERY little.
Bless your heart for trying to have a genuine discussion with chaos agents. No surprise that they still cant recognize game changing talent because of a deathgrip on the stats.
The bball ref ratings and on/off impacts are very rudimentary with no attempt at removing noise like garbage time. Hence why you see those NBA media analysts like Lowe use Synergy and Cleaning the Glass when referencing things like offensive and defensive impact And Banchero has significantly worse impact on his team than Jalen.
So what you're saying is that we should focus only on certain cherry picked metrics from very specific cherry picked sites and ignore literally everything else because it kills the narrative. Sorry, but I'm not going to do that. If an argument is valid, it doesn't require such mental gymnastics. Neither were very good in the regular season, so it's not really worth going into that much depth about. What matters is that by most metrics, Banchero is currently the better player overall and I game a lot more faith in him continuing to improve year over year than I do in Jalen miraculously turning his career around before the trade deadline.
This is true for individual player scoring efficiency, but there isn't more to basketball than efficiency, it's the point of the game. The more efficient team wins every single time. You can either be more efficient (better offense), or you can make your opponent less efficient (better defense). But there isn't more to the game than that. Sure there's nuance within building an efficient offense, but at the end of the day, efficiency is all that matters. People are appropriately obsessed with it.
Banchero's 3pt% improved quite a bit on fair amount of volume (although it's still far below league average). That's surprising to me. Next season we'll see if that's a fluke or for real.
well, what happens when a team has an oreb% of 50% and a fg% of 50% vs a team with an oreb% of 0 and shoots 55%? what your describing is team efficiency on a per possession basis, and possessions are poorly defined imo, because a 2nd oppurtunity to score off an Oreb doesnt start a new possession but rather continues it. Jalen takes 1 shot and makes it for 2 pts. vs Jalen takking 2 shots, with an offensive reb for 2 pts is the same "efficiency" even if the difference is Jalen shooting 50% vs 100%. Efficiency is wonderful. ITs very very important as i said to begin with. There are different types of efficency and they arent all equal but all have importance.
Team efficiency is the all-encompassing measurement of a team's offense. Individual efficiency contributes to team efficiency but as you say not the only thing. The ability to create is important for team success. BUT, shot creation is valuable only if (1) he can make the self-created shots efficiently; or (2) he can create efficient shots for his teammates. Elite offensive players can do at least one of those two things (usually both) extremely well. If a player keeps missing shots he creates for himself at high volume, then he is nothing more than a ball hog or black hole, wasting the team's possessions. For Jalen, he can't do (1) for 3 seasons. His creation for teammates wasn't very good either but he showed signs of improvement under better coaching last season. That's encouraging. But court vision is mostly an inborn talent. So I'm actually slightly optimistic that he will have significant improvement on (1) than on (2).
Where do you rank these areas in terms of order of importance towards efficiency and ultimately winning games: Field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounds, free throw frequency? Do you agree with Dean Oliver when he says that offense contributes to winning more championships than defense and that good offensive players are more important than good offensive systems?
Per Game Averages from the 3 pt line last season Banchero: 33.9% 4.4 attempts 25% of total 17.6 shot attempts Green: 33.2% 7.4 attempts 45% of total 16.2 shot attempts Poole: 32.6% 7.2 attempts 45% of total 15.2 shot attempts 3 below avg 3 pt shooters 2 are the worst 3p chuckers in the league they shoot as many 3's as if they're some elite 40% 3pt shooter like almost half of their shots are from behind the arc if you wana compare 2 similar players from the 3 pt line, theres your pair
I think Jalen was doing a good job of improving #2 all year. As the season went on the less i seen "head down" possessions and he was making the right pass more frequently. I think hes really coachable and has taken in a lot from Ime. He will never be elite, in that regard i think you just have to "have it" as you say. But he can be good enough imo with continued improvement. Its always gonna come down to #1 with Jalen for better or worse. You either believe in a players ability to improve or you dont once they enter yr 4. I like to believe rather than doubt.
