I think he would almost certainly throw the election for the Democrats. He's not going to deliver you a swing state. He will mobilize the evangelicals and bigots. He will run up the score in already blue strongholds. I feel the same way you do about him as a human. He's the best communicator and marketer in the Democratic bullpen right now, by a wide margin. He is one of the few blue chip candidates the Democrats have in their pocket for 2028 and beyond. But right now, he's a liability on that ticket. No matter how much he would absolutely wipe his ass with JD Vance. The margins are too thin and the stakes are too high for the Democrats to jump the gun with him.
My main question is "what do Democrats do with him in the meantime?" If Kamala wins, do they push him into SoS? If Kamala loses, how can they keep him in front of the public consciousness as a Democrat?
He polled lower among Millennials and black voters for different reasons in the last cycle. My opinion of him has improved, but he still has McKinsey vibes. I don't know where he stands among the finer details (corporate worshipping lib vs Bernie lib vs moderate flyover lib etc...). His charisma isn't universal, but he does have it. More high profile stints fighting for the public interest will earn more trust over time.
They've gotta keep him in the cabinet even though I don't think that's a launch pad to the presidency. He's a prisoner of geography unfortunately. If they lose he can run again in 2028 (assuming we still have to vote). Whitmer would also be there without any elected office since I believe her term expired before then.
Right, the cabinet is obvious but I'm curious if they're willing to let him take over Secretary of State. If they lose, he's gonna be basically twiddling his thumbs for 4 years which is not great.
I thought that as well but someone said . .. anyone that would change their vote based on this . . .. wasn't voting for Kamala any way so I can see his impact being not as big as I originally thought Rocket River
I’ve never been a fan. He comes from Navy intelligence and McKinsey and Company. He seems like as a plant from the military industrial complex.
It'd be interesting to see him as SoS especially interacting with Gulf countries. Or maybe he could be nominated to the Supreme Court
Not really. He lives in Michigan now, his husband's home state. He could run for Senate there, or governor, depending on the career choices of his democratic allies in those offices now.
VPs rarely deliver any state. There is hope that Josh Shapiro (and his 60+% approval rate as PA governor) can help deliver PA ... but if Harris stumbles, Shapiro may not be able to deliver. If Harris does not stumble, she may not need Shapiro's help. :shrug: Shapiro may be Harris's VP choice. I suspect that the Ask for Shapiro will be to campaign well across the swing states, presenting a likable, competent choice who is good at messaging. The VP also rans (including those who have strong POTUS aspirations) like Newsome, Gretch and Mayor Pete can do their part on the campaign trail and Fox News.
Senate is off the table unless Peters retires soon. Unlikely. Governor is possible in 2026 but that's a tough sell IMO.
I don't have the willpower to research that, but I want you to consider just how narrow the margins are before you dismiss the concept. We're talking normal, consistent margins in the 5 digits. That can be changed by a fart in the wind, let alone an entire VP pick.
The Dems may need to win Omaha. If it ends up a tie at 269, the Repubs will win the tiebreaker. It would be nice if the Dems could pick up Arizona or Nevada.
Progressives sound alarm on Shapiro VP talk https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4804417-shapiro-vice-president-progressives-harris/
@No Worries If ChatGPT is accurate—and it typically is with historical data—most VP selections (since 1900) were not strategically made to help secure their home state, as those states were already leaning towards or safely in their party's favor. The few exceptions were these below. Harris is fortunate to have at least two choices to help secure a swing state. Delivered Home State: Lyndon B. Johnson (1960): Texas, a crucial swing state. Al Gore (1992): Tennessee, traditionally Republican at the time. Did Not Deliver: Paul Ryan (2012): Wisconsin stayed Democratic.
