There are so many things wrong with the PRC. I understand that it was terrible in many respects before the PRC..... but it just seems to be getting worse and worse in the PRC. I find it to be too bad - the PRC don't trust their own people.
I have heard the same. I am not entirely sure how much they REALLY believe this and how much of it is speculation. There is an infrastructure in China, and there are some skilled workers - so even if there is a version of a collapse, I see at worst a Russia situation - where there is a decline, but there isn't a return to pre-PRC conditions. The one exception would be if everyone in China with money and expertise left China for Korea, USA and Western Europe.
The people don't even trust their own people... "Construction material and wood filler for their food and tofu dregs for their buildings". When a midsized city is the population of Chicago metro, it skews the value of an individual and ups competition for resources to something as simple as getting a good subway car position. One feels drowned to the point where if you ain't cheatin, you really aint tryin to get above the rat race. Many of the Chinese people are definitely trying to be good, but if corruption expected at the top from national to local, then it sets conditions on how to operate in the marketplace... don't drink the tapwater - boiling is for suckers and those who want to lie to themselves, buy imported baby formula and critical pharma needs, you get what you pay for in the street food, and the list goes on and on. They also have a "Little Pink" problem that shouts down the opposition and endlessly gaslight with zero sources of truth or any modicum of decency/shame that's similar to what we see in this topic. People aren't stupid, they'll still say what they think even if they have to be oblique about it.
China’s Dead-End Economy Is Bad News for Everyone ............. The Chinese economy is in a state of weak domestic consumer demand and slowing growth. The only way that China’s leaders can see to pull themselves out of this hole is to fall back on pumping out exports. But the era when China was able to take over whole industries without foreign pushback is over. Many countries are now taking steps to protect their markets from Chinese-made goods. Under U.S. pressure, Mexico’s government last month reportedly decided it would not award subsidies to Chinese electric vehicle makers seeking to manufacture in Mexico for export to the U.S. market; the European Union is considering action to prevent Chinese electric vehicles from swamping its market; and the Biden administration has moved to encourage semiconductor manufacturing in the United States and limit Chinese access to chip technologies, and has promised more actions to thwart China. But Mr. Xi’s policy options are dwindling. China’s leaders will face rising economic pressure to lower the value of the renminbi, which will make Chinese-made goods even cheaper in U.S. dollar terms, further boosting export volume and upsetting trading partners even more. But a devaluation will also make imports of foreign products and raw materials more expensive, squeezing Chinese consumers and businesses while encouraging wealthier people to get their money out of China. The government can’t turn to economic stimulus measures to revive growth — pouring more renminbi into the economy would risk crushing the currency’s value. in view of these developments, to say that China's decision to join forces with Russian / India to de-dollarize global trade amounts to economic suicide would be an understatement
China launches $47bn chip fund to counter U.S. restrictions; don't it's enough to build a chip foundry try hundreds of billions!!! can't make chicken salad outta chicken bleep!
.. China’s economy slowed in Q2 2024 as weak consumer demand dragged on growth China’s economy expanded at a slower-than-forecast 4.7% annual rate in the last quarter, the government reported Monday In addition to the persistent suppressed property market, weak retail sales have been the main drag on economic growth, not enough demand. if only China has the ability to print $, a la the Fed's helicopter rescue with QE; It can always dream
I'm not sure QE does anything in this scenario. Japan was doing QE for over 20 years but it really couldn't alter the fundamental problems in Japan's economy. China seems to have the same issues around demographics and stagnant growth. China has terminal demographic decline and stagnant productivity gains. In theory, government investment in infrastructure can help with productivity but Chinese spending on infrastructure today doesn't have the same ROI that it had in the early 2000s. The US is able to offset demographic stagnation because American workers have seen continuous increases in productivity and the US is in a much healthier place in terms of demography (even though the US is also under replacement level). China's best case scenario might actually be Japan level stagnancy if they don't change things.
note that i emphasize on the Fed Reserve helicopter rescue, a full-scale QE to provided liquidity to resusitated demand. that's because it was not quite a "helicopter rescue". bluntly put, it was half-azzed Helicopter Ben's full-scale QE increase the US monetary base by 140%, as compared to BOJ's ~~70% US has the benefits of having the de facto global currency enabling it to implement the helicopter drop; neither China nor Japan has that monetary crutch to lean on.
Doesn't answer the point that I'm not sure a US scale liquidity infusion would fix this. China has big demographic issues playing out and its consumption spending was terrible even before the housing collapse. You can inject a lot of capital into the banking system but the economy still has to make productive use of that capital to create an economic recovery. And the bright spots of China's private (and non-subsidized) industry like its tech companies have been largely neutered and discouraged by the CCP. I'm not convinced that there are productive outlets for all of this capital. Not to mention the banking system itself is largely a series of state owned banks that have lost much of their autonomy in recent years.
Now Beijing says. it will stop publishing daily flows data The decision follows a move in May to end data on intraday flows through trading links with Hong Kong. This latest retreat into opacity follows attempts by Chinese policymakers to prop up faltering confidence among local investors, an effort that’s been battered by fleeing global funds. Overseas money managers offloaded about $4.1 billion of mainland shares this month
China can't do QE like Japan or US anyways because the Yuan isn't freely traded with their tight currency controls. They can monetize their debt but hasn't because financializing their debt to pay for infra stimulus with diminishing returns blew up their housing market post-GFC from distorted incentives. It's dumb to repeat the same thing twice and they don't have foreign investors cleaning up their wasteful mistakes anymore. They're putting money into their supply chain for higher quality adds while trying to cool their real estate sector, which has worked to some extent with semis, solar, and batteries being competitive for their fields. Real estate will stagnate because it needs to unravel its losses, but elsewhere, Huawei is becoming more competitive in the global south even without ASML/Nvidia chips, while BYD released a 15K car that freaked out the Detroit lobby and would be a car Gen Z'ers and jobless hippies could by if there wasn't a 100% tariff on it. Green and inflation busting...Biden likes the sound of that! So yeah, probably a better allocation of spending borrowed money, than say enriching real estate investors and imploded stock owners like we've done. Remember when CNBC types were promising China recovery from it's reopening late last year? They totally assumed the CCP would roll out easy money. Like you said, their demo is graying fast, and their population's wealth isn't as distributed as Japan's. I don't think Japan expected QE to turn out the way it has for the past 2-3 decades anyways and it's probably something the CCP can't stomach. They're more apt to blame FDI pullout than chasing good money for bad.
need to focus less time on butchering and torturing animals in inhuman and grotesque ways via their disgusting meat markets and probably act morally China is a disgusting morally bankrupt piece of ****
ur confused, neither Japan/China is capable of going full QE in a manner like the Fed Reserve, because unlike the US Dollar, their respective currency is not the de facto global currency the best China / Japan can do is a half-azzed QE. btw, Japan's QE has NOT been ineffective; it has been QEing for several generations; its economy is still not where it was in the 1990s, where it was the 2nd largest in the world. it has declined to be either 4th or 5th largest
recommended reading for invisible when the country involved does not have a global reserve currency, the QE implemented has a diminishing effect
China still can't do QE like Japan. Your crackpot scheme of helicoptering even more money is a fools errand considering the amount of public/private debt they have while forcing their demographics to pay it off with even more bailouts spending. At least they're investing in their mid-level and top-level supply chains in hopes countering Western "Friendshoring". Not all countries can double down degen their way into bloated GDPs while regular people are can't pay for daily necessities and urban rent. You've claimed the US did QE during the Great Depression (it did not...not even possible with a Delorean), so I doubt you know what you're talking about when it comes to QE.
China already blew most of their modernization wad, they have poor demographics, and currently don't have sufficient domestic demand so they are exporting as much as possible to keep economy growing. However, the world isn't as receptive this time and protectionism is back en vogue or more accurately regionalism.
convenient baseless claim on your part. once again, your confused. Helicopter drop is QE, a monetary tool. for which the Fed is responsible bail out/ spending are fiscal policies, outside the scope of responsibility of the Fed your ignorance is such that you lump them together as one the same. only the one whose currency is the defacto global currency ignorance on your part there was a QE type of program back in the great depression , but it wasn’t called quantitative easing A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing
You keep saying helicopter drop QE without addressing the question of what Chinese banks can do with all of that excess liquidity and capital. There are simply no productive outlets for all of that capital. Private industry in China has taken a huge step back, local governments are broke and lived off of land sales and that land was being used to create unproductive assets like unnecessary housing stock. QE in the US was helpful because the US economy could do productive things with all of that capital at extremely low interest rates. Until you can explain how the Chinese economy would make productive use of that capital, I'm not convinced QE (even at the US scale) would do anything. Chinese investment in infrastructure has become so inefficient at this point that it has heavily negative ROI now. Building high speed rail lines and highways to the middle of nowhere will show up as GDP but it offers no productive use. And private companies that could use the capital to create new technologies and R&D have basically fallen out of favor with the CCP. And the state owned banks are fully captured by the CCP leadership and bank lending is now politicized. Its far more likely that a QE program would just result in new low cost loans to bail out LGFVs and unproductive developers than loans to promote new corporate R&D and technology to boost worker productivity.
