The Astros paid more of a premium for less of a product than anyone else. He's very durable, but considering how poorly he's pitched over the last month, don't be surprised if he's nursing an injury as we speak. All of this for a dude with ONE season of above league average results in his 6 years in the states.
Who in the organization labeled Bloss “special”? His ascension, I would argue, likely speaks to their desperation. He was blowing people away while 4/5 of our rotation was on IL… they took a pretty wild swing his AA numbers could translate because they were literally running out of options. Which is not to say they didn’t deem him a top-end prospect. But I think he was with the big club because they were desperate for answers; not because he was a super-duper prospect they couldn’t wait to get their hands on.
Dana will explain it tonight during the game. So they have Blanco, Brown, Valdez, Arighetti and Kikuchi. I'm not including JV because he may never come back. Or Garcia this year. Assuming no more trades/giveaways, it's not enough to say this team is World Series bound.
I think there’s a decent chance we resign him regardless of what happens with JV leaving and Urquidy/Javier being out all next year. If he does what you’ve said here though, and we don’t resign him, but he gets us to the playoffs with a chance to win again, I’ll personally live with the cost.
That’s like the hardest thing in baseball to do for a 26 year old in the majors. It could happen, but it’s extremely unlikely.
I feel like most of the people in the thread would also have crucified Brown if no trade happened at the deadline and the rumors of this trade never came out. I get that the trade was an overpay. But deadline trades are typically overpays and most other teams FO can easily see what our fans see -- that the Astros desperately need MLB level starting pitching. For all "he is replacement level" talk, there have been too many games this year where guys, notably Brown early and Arighetti, just get hit so hard early that the Stros basically have no chance. Replacement level would be a step up compared to that. Especially because this team just cannot have any more games this year that are basically over after first 3 innings. On top of that, I think the expectations that this team was going to find a player who would be a "definite prospective playoff difference maker" with the few trade chips they have was very rose colored glasses.
I wasn’t happy about the trade initially, but I’ve moved on to being cautiously optimistic about how this helps our team THIS year. If our pitching development can turn Blanco into a Cy Young candidate and Scott into one of the best non-high leverage relievers in the league, I’m excited to see what they can do with a guy that has (arguably) elite “stuff”. Also, Bloss was a Dana Brown under slot 3rd rounder without any truly elite numbers to cry about. Fast tracking could have been part performance based, but this very well could be a trick that Dana will use in every draft if possible, to help “create” trade value. I’ll be watching how they treat Parker Smith this year and next, to see if my theory holds.
I need receipts. Which team landed a better starting pitcher for less? Unless I'm blanking on someone, two prominent SPs have been dealt: Fedde was involved in a weird three-team trade that doesn't really easily comp. Eflin was dealt for an OF, utility player and a P (sound familiar?). I won't pretend to know anything about the Orioles' system - expect that it's widely considered one of the best in baseball, and certainly better than Houston's. So where are these widespread fleecings?
Really? Loperfido Of course, it would have - but I don't think anyone on here was really privy to the cost. The reality is that 12-14 teams went into this trade deadline believing that they would get a starting pitcher. Those teams all are in the heat of the playoff chance, and about 80% have better prospects than the Astros. There are like 8 starting pitchers actually available for those 12-14 teams. The hope by the Astros and other contenders was that Toronto would move Gausman and Bassett, or the Mets and Rangers would decide to sell - and that would mean another 4-5 starters available. Instead, both are actually buyers. Then Garrett Crochet said he wanted an extension, and that really limited his likelihood of being dealt. So the only real starting pitchers available were/are: Jameson Tallion Jack Flaherty Zac Eflin Erick Fedde Yusui Kikuchi Michael Lorenzen Frankie Montas Trevor Rogers The Astros have spoken a LOT with the White Sox and Tigers about Flaherty and Fedde. The Cubs so far have not even told Tallion he will be traded - but regardless the Astros spoke to the Cubs quite a bit as well. Elfin went to the Orioles (a team with vastly more prospects than the Astros). Fedde went to the Cardinals in a deal with the Dodgers, and the cost was higher than what the Astros paid - and Fedde may not even pitch in the post season. Flaherty hasn't been dealt yet - but the Dodgers and Yankees and Orioles all are linked to him. The Rangers were not dealing Lorenzen to us. Rogers is 2-9 this year and Montas has been bad too with poor strikeout rates. These guys will not pitch in the post season. That basically leaves Kikuchi and teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Padres and Brewers all bidding for him. Of those 8 starting pitchers, only 4-5 of them are good enough to pitch at all in the post season. The Astros really did not have an option on not getting a starting pitcher, and they are in a dog fight just to make the playoffs. So the cost for a starter was sky high - it wasn't that Brown panicked or that he was slicked - that was the cost, and he (or the owner) decided that they had to add a starter to make the playoffs.
The standard is "make the playoffs" - being "World Series bound" is chasing a unicorn. Once the postseason starts, anything can happen. See last year's World Series before you angrily type some silly response. Nobody knows what makes a World Series team, other than you're far more likely to reach it if you're in the playoffs than not. That's it. From there, it's a total crapshoot. Kikuchi, if he's good, improves our chances of making the playoffs.
Maybe it was just org speak... but that was the smoke when discussing his promotion from AA. They weren't necessarily more desperate then.... Still had Brown, Framber, Arighetti, Blanco in the rotation (which is the same as it is now). They could have made a similar trade for about the same type of package, but they decided to promote internally based on what they possibly saw. I'm biased - I already feel the most prospects don't pan out, I already over-value all pitching (especially proven starting pitching), and I totally succumb to that this team has to win now and next year and then there's a whole lot of ???? beyond that.... and even with all those pre-conceived bias' that would have this trade making sense on paper, I was still somewhat perturbed by the eventual result and who they gave up.
It makes perfect sense... and yet it still seems shitty... I guess thats how it is in 2024 in this watered down wild-card, "everybody's a winner" format, and all players expendable. How the F did the Jazz trade come about? That's still going to be the biggest shift/difference making move going forward in all of baseball... and for years to come. The kid was just 1-2 years removed from being the "next special star" to languishing in baseball Siberia. The Yankees front office deserves full credit for that sort of smart move.
That was a great post - but I jumped on this because it's a point I've made, too: there seems to be this perception that the Jays agreed to some lesser deal but the Astros just started dumping additional prospects into the mix for no reason. The Blue Jays fully understood the market @Nook described and held all the leverage: Kikuchi was one of the better SPs actually available. And so this was the cost. You can certainly be upset at that cost and question whether it's worth it - but what's not up for debate is that the Astros DESPERATELY needed a starting pitcher. They likely STILL need a starting pitcher. But they could not go into August hoping XYZ would get healthy and all would be well with their rotation. They have Blanco wearing down; they have Brown 5-7 starts away from his career high in IP; their 4th starter has a 5+ ERA, and I don't think I could even name who their 5th starter is right now. That is NOT sustainable. Hopefully, Verlander does return, as does Garcia - and you know what? Adding those 2 + Kikuchi is a terrific add for the stretch run. But, man... they had to do SOMETHING.
Ehh... I don't know. The Orioles gave up Etzel, who has a lot of talent - he is a good centerfielder, that is exceptional on the bases, has developing power and can draw walks. He has a lot of upside. Baumeister and Horvarth both were second rounders in 2023. Horvarth is another speedster with plus bat speed that steals a lot of bases and is viewed as having loud tools. Baumeister is 21 and has a lot of strikeouts in the lower minors with good projectibles. I personally think that is a lot better than what the Astros offered in Bloss, Loperfido and Wagner.... and it should be, Elfin is under control next year. As for Fedde, has worse stuff than Kikuchi - and the White Sox ended up getting very good prospects from the Dodgers, and Tommy Edman is like a 4-5 WAR guy over 500 at bats and can play all over the diamond - so the cost was high.
