One more/ from Keith law who I think sucks but whatever- I’m just saying this isn’t an astros only bubble: The Blue Jays appear to be bowing to the inevitable and trading off their impending free agents, this time sending off disappointing starter Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros for a three-player return that might be the best value any seller has received so far at the deadline
He very likely not going to become amazing- he’s slightly more likely to be unplayable. He’s by far most likely to be an average/good regular which in and of itself is too much to give up for the return we got.
With a measly 56 games to go I doubt that potential is reached in Houston. A 2 month rental. https://sports.yahoo.com/astros-app...west-race-preserve-alcs-streak-041716427.html
His glove appears to be a plus, his power is a plus, if he fixes the strikeout issue, I think there's a solid path to amazing.
It's funny because Law hates the Astros and always rates the prospects too low. - now they go to the Blue Jays and are great. Can somebody find Law's scouting reports on the 3 players? (I don't have a subscription). I am willing to bet they are much more critical than others and suddenly get better since they are now Blue Jay prospects
Even the NY Times chimes in as an overpay. Watch Dana be on the broadcast tonight trying to explain his crappy trade... https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5667921/2024/07/30/yusei-kikuchi-astros/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yusei-kikuchi-returns-an-astronomical-haul-for-the-blue-jays/ … His first 10 starts of this season were phenomenal: 2.64 ERA, 2.61 FIP, a 26% strikeout rate, and a minuscule 5.5% walk rate. Since then, things have gone quite poorly. I’m talking about a 6.87 ERA and 4.67 FIP poorly, 13 homers in only 12 starts poorly. Kikuchi has gotten shelled repeatedly, and the Jays have plummeted out of the playoff race at the same time. His timing for his woes could’ve hardly been worse, creating a strange dilemma for the Jays. Kikuchi was on fire through most of June, and the Jays’ playoff odds bounced around between 20 and 40 percent during that time. When Kikuchi’s perceived trade value was at its highest, the team wasn’t ready to sell. Then he started getting worse, and the Jays’ playoff odds started dipping at the same time, with the bottom falling out around the end of June, when a seven-game losing streak, followed by a 4-6 stretch against playoff competition, put them hopelessly far behind in the standings. It was finally time to trade Kikuchi – except, across seven starts from May 26-June 28, he had a 7.12 ERA and peripherals that weren’t much better. The smart move seemed to be holding Kikuchi a bit longer, waiting for both a rebound and the trade deadline to produce some motivated buyers. So the Jays held, but Kikuchi didn’t improve much. He’s been slightly better in July, but only slightly: 6.59 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a home run per start over five starts. He managed six or more innings in only one of those starts, to boot. But now time has run out, and so Kikuchi’s on the move. Or maybe I should rephrase: Luckily, just before time ran out, it turns out that the entire hypothetical decline in Kikuchi’s trade value was just made up. The Astros sent the Blue Jays a phenomenal trade offer, and now Kikuchi is headed down to the Gulf Coast to chase the playoffs. I still think Kikuchi is a good option as a mid-rotation starter. He’s almost certainly not as good as his early-season form, but he’s much better than he’s performed over the last two months. His game sinks or floats based on how many home runs he allows. That’s been the story with his model-beloved arsenal, too; they’re great pitches on average, but he leaves both his fastball and slider in dangerous locations too much for someone without huge movement. His pitches are more timing-disruptive than pure bat-missers, and that just doesn’t work as well when you leave it middle-middle. … [Bloss] shredded minor league hitters so comprehensively that I completely understand why Houston brought him up to the majors to see if the magic could continue, but his first three big league starts have been rough. More specifically, his third major league start was rough: The A’s launched four homers off of him in only four innings. I’m a big fan of the potential here, but I’d ideally give him a little bit more time in the minors to develop, and I think the Astros reached that conclusion as well, hence the trade. This would’ve made for a logical one-for-one swap: a fast-rising pitching prospect for a mid-rotation rental. But then, unfathomably, the Astros kicked in significantly more. We had Bloss as their no. 2 prospect; Joey Loperfido was no. 3 until he graduated from prospect status earlier this season. He’s a big versatile outfielder with true-outcome fever; he has 30-homer power, takes walks, and strikes out a bunch. Our prospect team put a 45 FV grade on him as a versatile bench player with the ability to field five positions (the outfield plus first and second), with an outside chance of hitting enough to become an everyday player. But wait, there’s still more. The last player in the deal is Will Wagner, Billy Wagner’s son and an upper-minors infielder with a contact-over-power approach. You can probably picture this general archetype; when it works out as well as possible, it’s Brendan Donovan. When it doesn’t, it’s any number of utility infielders that your team uses to patch holes in the roster. Wagner is hitting .307/.424/.429 with more strikeouts than walks in Triple-A this year, but I think that line overstates his likely major league impact. Pitchers are going to assail him with strikes until he starts to make them pay for it, and as you might have realized from how similar his OBP and slug are, that’s been a struggle for him. Still, it’s highly likely that Wagner becomes a part-time contributor in the majors, if only at the bottom of the roster. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this year, and I think that the Jays’ roster situation makes it likely that he’ll end up on the 40-man as a result. The Astros were unlikely to have space for him, so that addition feels like a get-the-deal-over-the-finish-line sweetener. Only… why did the Astros need to add a sweetener? This is a huge win for the Blue Jays, in my opinion. The Astros are wizards when it comes to getting the most out of mid-round draft picks. Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner are all big success stories, unheralded picks who have far exceeded their expectations. But after doing all that hard work, the team turned around and flipped them for a mid-rotation rental. I understand why the Astros need Kikuchi. But based on returns at the past few trade deadlines, Bloss alone was right around what I’d expect the Jays to get for dealing him. Maybe a Wagner-type player or two if the Astros were particularly keen to get the deal done. Loperfido, too? That’s a lot of good young players for 2-3 months of a solid-but-not-overwhelming pitcher. The more I mull this over in my head, the more I think the Astros wanted Kikuchi specifically. If they were calling every team in baseball and saying “We need starting, and we’ll offer Jake Bloss plus…” someone would have dealt them an arm in fairly short order. I’d trade some of the starters who haven’t yet been moved (Jack Flaherty and Zack Littell spring to mind) for less than this return, and I suspect that their teams might too. This only makes sense to me if the Astros wanted Kikuchi specifically and weren’t willing to miss their guy. That’s how you end up making an offer that makes analysts across the board go “Whoa, really?” I think it’s worth bumping expectations of Kikuchi up slightly given this context. When a team wants someone this badly, it surely has a reason. But I also think the Astros front office is a strange mishmash of old and new, and that they’re working at cross purposes. The part of the org that sagely selects college pitchers with interesting peripherals and then helps them unlock new heights in their game probably isn’t the same part that ships out a mountain of top prospects for two-plus months of a mid-rotation starter. I understand the Astros’ motivation in the deal, and yet I still think they gave up too much.
From February: 6. Joey Loperfido, OF Height: 6-3 | Weight: 220 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 25 After signing in 2021, Loperfido went to work, gaining close to 30 pounds of good weight, while the Astros helped him improve his swing decisions from 2022 to 2023 so he could get to more of that power in games. He’s played all over the field but his best chance for defensive and positional value is in center, as he’s a 55 runner with excellent instincts. If he has to move to a corner outfield spot, where he’s played some in the minors, the bat might not make him more than a fringy regular, although he’d be superb as a fourth outfielder who can also back up at second and first. He turns 25 in May, so we shouldn’t expect any further physical maturation, but he’s also pretty much ready for the majors and at the worst he should be on Houston’s bench by midyear. 7. Will Wagner, IF Height: 5-11 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 25 Billy Wagner’s son got off to a strong start in 2023, hurt his wrist, missed two months, and kept right on raking when he returned, finishing the year with a 15-for-26 week in Triple A. He can hit in both senses — he makes a ton of contact, rarely whiffing or chasing, and he hits the ball hard enough to be a high-average/high-doubles guy. It’s probably 12-15 homers at best, and that presents a challenge as he doesn’t have a clear position — maybe third, maybe second, but maybe first as his lateral mobility (and thus range) isn’t great. Wagner may not produce big homer totals or otherwise eye-popping numbers but I buy the hit tool and he might end up getting everyday playing time for someone, even if it’s not Houston. 12. Jake Bloss, RHP Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 23 Bloss was Houston’s third-rounder last year, a senior from Georgetown who saw his velocity jump 2.5 mph after he transferred from Lafayette. He sits 94-95 now with a high spin rate that gives it the illusion of “rise” through the zone, aided further by good extension over his front side. He can spin a high-80s slider and turn over a changeup, enough to send him out as a starter. He walked too many guys in his brief pro debut in Low A, almost all to left-handed batters, which is just something worth noting for now as it wasn’t an issue for him in college. It’s a starter look and arsenal, at least. Today: Toronto picks up the guy Kikuchi is replacing in Houston’s rotation, right-hander Jake Bloss, drafted in 2023 out of Georgetown. He’s had mixed results in three big-league starts, giving up some hard contact of his own on his high-spin four-seamer, missing more bats with the curveball and sweeper while also using a true slider and changeup. Lefties gave him some trouble last year and they have destroyed him in the majors so far, going 11-for-29 with two homers and just four strikeouts so far (small sample caveats apply). He has to use that changeup more, clearly, and I imagine the Jays will tweak his pitch mix to at least give him a better chance against lefties and to keep the ball from ending up in the bleachers. He has fourth/fifth starter upside. Joey Loperfido was the Astros’ No. 6 prospect coming into the year and earned a promotion with a .272/.365/.568 line in Triple A, but, hey, big-league pitchers are better than Triple-A guys, and he’s going to have to work through some stuff after striking out 36.4 percent of the time so far in the majors. He’s a 55 runner who might be able to stick in center, with fringe-average power that probably makes him an extra outfielder if he has to move to a corner. He’s better than the small major-league sample implies, though. Will Wagner turned 26 on Monday, the day of the trade, and Toronto should give him the present of a major-league debut. He’s hitting .307/.424/.429 in Triple A and he can definitely hit, although he needs to loft the ball more to turn some more of those hard-hit groundballs into line drives. He’s at least a quality bench bat who can back up third, second, and first, but I’d like to see if a new organization can get him to drive the ball more and maybe turn him into a regular. That’s three players with some sort of upside for a two-month rental of a pitcher who was replacement-level by bWAR. I’ll take that deal every day of the week.
Pretty accurate. If it had just been Bloss, the initial reaction would have still been that it was an overpay, but overnight it could be rationalized. Even adding Wagner could have been justified; adding a 40 grade prospect to an already lopsided deal is ok if the player truly is a difference maker. But adding Loperfido was a bridge too far; there’s no way to make sense of this deal with both Bloss and Loperfido included. It was a bad trade.
It is certainly grading as an overpay. (even if its a stretch to still have Loperfido as a 'prospect').. but Astros fans also overvalue their own compared to the ceilings of other players' being dealt. Both aspects can and are true in this case.
Go read the article J.R. posted about his stuff. Look, this might blow up in their face and he might continue to struggle, but there aren’t many guys averaging 96 mph on their fastball. Especially as a lefty. In that article I’m talking about, only Dylan Cease, Glasnow and Ragans have more velocity and “ride” on their fastball than Kikuchi. Clearly the analytics department and our pitching staff thinks there is an easy fix. Let’s see how it plays out.
Yeah man I just can’t understand why they had to include loperfido and Wagner both. This is the kind of package you trade for a rental difference maker. Not a mid tier 33 year old.
Even if we assume everything goes right and Yusei becomes the Japanese Charlie Morton, he'll put up 2-ish WAR with an ERA of 2.50 for two months than immediately leave in free agency for $20+ million per year.
There seems to be this idea that the Astros gratuitously added players when they didn’t need to, and clearly, that’s not the case. The Astros likely offered Bloss 1-for-1 - or maybe Bloss + Wagner? - and were told no. At that point, Toronto, who, remember, has all the leverage, asked for more and the Astros clearly felt Kikuchi was worth the extra cost. + I find it very hard to believe the Astros were the lone team in on Kikuchi so they almost certainly weren’t bidding against themselves. That doesn’t make the trade *good* - they gave up a lot. But I think it speaks to the market. SPs are going to fetch a premium.
Pretty easy to see what Bloss' velocity and spin rate are doing since February... or I hope those are the types of insight the current front office was tracking to deem him expendable just a few short months after him being fast-tracked as one of the potential "special ones". Or his shoulder is still partially semi-****ed after his first start, and both teams fully acknowledging this, thus why they had to add to the deal.
…. Because Toronto wouldn’t make the deal otherwise? This seems pretty obvious. Even a MOR SP has + value in a pennant race. No team is giving them away and no team is paying appreciably less. A starting pitcher is going to COST.
