Agreed. The only questions/concerns to me is what really happens/happened with Bloss? There’s no scenario that makes the Astros front office look decent regarding him. Also not concerned about Loperfido/Wagner as they would have eventually been culprit to a numbers game (although I do think Loperfido is a very great defensive OF). But Bloss was a recent draft pick, was seemingly fast-tracked due to our own development people saying he should be, and was seemingly promoted on merit due to what our development people saw in him. Then he gets to the big leagues and everybody is just “nah, he don’t really have it….”?
On 1), the Astros got them in this position by being really good for a long time, the cheating scandal helped weaken the farm further, and the Astros had a ton of injuries to starting pitchers. 2) I think the new playoff system has the trade market jacked up. The time to improve the team is the offseason. It is tough when you have 2 starting pitchers recovering from Tommy John in the offseason, lose 2 more during the season to Tommy John, and have other pitchers miss a lot of time. Having to make a deal when it is a bad time to make a deal is just bad juju.
Bloss has the potential to at the very least, almost certainly, be equal to what Kikuchi is though, which is an average to below average starter that can give you some innings while putting up a 4 (more likely closer to 5) ERA. I don’t argue Kikuchi can give you some innings, but I don’t necessarily think they’re gonna be great innings. I’d rather run Jake Bloss out there. At least there is a chance for a higher upside. Kikuchi does very little to help the team now and nothing to help them in the future.
Making a bad trade deserves scrutiny. So does doing nothing. What we wanted was a good trade. That would have been a win
Jake Bloss may be a very good MLB pitcher. But there's almost zero chance he'd be better *in 2024* than Kikuchi.
Reminds me of the Jennings for Taveras/Hirsch trade (2006?)… which I was actually “supporting” way back when (my bad…). Even though Taveras was flawed and didn’t do much more in the majors… and Hirsch was a total bust… it was the principle of how one executes a potential trade based on the strengths they do have, and the type of player(s) they go out and target, and that was just a minor snapshot of why that GM/front office were just way in over their heads in terms of navigating a MLB team during war times.
I think you're vastly overrating Jake Bloss' impact in 2024. Kikuchi has promising peripherals & the word on him as always been dynamic stuff but inconsistent. Well, let's turn him over to the guys who made Blanco an All-Star-level starter and see if they can figure him out. I think Kikuchi is going to be a better pitcher *this season.*
The question is was the trade worth if it means making the playoffs and not making the playoffs healthy.
We'll come back to this once Kikuchi goes 4 innings, giving up 4 runs and taxing the bullpen every start.
I’m fine with that assessment. Typing on my phone so it was probably word salad. What I meant is Bloss definitely has the potential to be at least what Kikuchi is, long term, within the next few years. Is Kikuchi an upgrade right now? Sure, but in my eyes really only bc you can rely on him to go deeper in games. The quality of the innings aren’t all that great.
Was super bummed last night going to sleep. This morning . . . feeling a little better. Not good, but Kikuchi has plus stuff. Within a better system, maybe he performs up to his stuff. I like having another lefty. Today will be interesting. Let's get a deal on a bat to make this look a little better. Bring up Pedro. and fight like hell!
This. How much do we covet making the postseason? Because I truly believe Kikuchi is going to have a greater impact on that (*in 2024*) than Bloss/Loperfido/Wagner. Also: are other trades being coming? If they're able to land Flaherty, for example, Kikuchi looks significantly different (better).
I think Bloss was the cost of getting Kicuchi in a year that the Astros needed talent when their long term forecast isn't great. The Astros had to give up something of value and I don't see options that the Blue Jays would accept that Astros fans would not consider an over pay. On narratives that I don't know whether they are true or not, but I don't see how the Astros handled Bloss as looking bad. Promote Bloss really fast to trick other teams' spreadsheets into thinking he's a better prospect than he is. Not much downside in promoting a pitcher fast generally that can get Ks and limit walks. Promoted Bloss thinking he was going to be better than he was, and then sold before other teams caught on when his strikeout numbers in AA, AAA, and MLB were underwhelming. Granted, I think Bloss will be fine. The Astros wanted a SP now, and he was the minimum cost they could pay whether or not it will be viewed as an overpay.
If those are the results, that will be bad and this trade will look worse (I'm not defending the trade; just that two things can be simultaneously true: it's an overpay but for a need/pitcher with potential to be very impactful). Hopefully, that isn't the case.
SP moved so far HOU: Yusei Kikuchi(TOR) for Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido & Will Wagner KC: Michael Lorenzen(TX) for Walter Pennington BOS: Quinn Priester(PIT) for Nick Yorke STL: Erick Fedde(CWS) (& Tommy Pham(CWS)); LAD: Michael Kopech(CWS), (Tommy Edman(STL), Oliver Gonzalez(STL)); CWS: Miguel Vargas(LAD), Jeral Perez & Alexander Albertus MIL: Frankie Montas(CIN) for Joey Wiemer & Jakob Junis BOS: James Paxton(LAD) for Moises Bolivar BAL: Zach Eflin(TB) for Matthew Etzel, Jackson Baumeister & Mac Horvath ________________________________________________________________________________ https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5667723/2024/07/29/astros-blue-jays-yusei-kiuchi-trade-analysis/ Kikuchi is a little more than a replacement-level starter at this point, even with strong strikeout (26.2 percent) and walk (6.0 percent) rates, because the contact he allows is … well, it’s not great, Bob. He’s allowed an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph this year, and a 90th percentile EV allowed of 105.5 mph. Fully a quarter of the balls batters have hit off of him, fair or foul, have left the bat at 100 mph or more. He’s had particular trouble keeping right-handed batters in the park, as they’ve hit 14 of the 17 homers he’s allowed and are slugging .441 against him, which could be a problem with the Crawfish Boxes in left field in Houston. The Astros have been surging in the standings but they are desperate for starting pitching, so I understand the impetus to get Kikuchi, but I’m not sure he moves the needle much for them. … [Bloss] had mixed results in three big-league starts, giving up some hard contact of his own on his high-spin four-seamer, missing more bats with the curveball and sweeper while also using a true slider and changeup. Lefties gave him some trouble last year and they have destroyed him in the majors so far, going 11-for-29 with two homers and just four strikeouts so far (small sample caveats apply). He has to use that changeup more, clearly, and I imagine the Jays will tweak his pitch mix to at least give him a better chance against lefties and to keep the ball from ending up in the bleachers. He has fourth/fifth starter upside. Joey Loperfido was the Astros’ No. 6 prospect coming into the year and earned a promotion with a .272/.365/.568 line in Triple A, but, hey, big-league pitchers are better than Triple-A guys, and he’s going to have to work through some stuff after striking out 36.4 percent of the time so far in the majors. He’s a 55 runner who might be able to stick in center, with fringe-average power that probably makes him an extra outfielder if he has to move to a corner. He’s better than the small major-league sample implies, though. Will Wagner turned 26 on Monday, the day of the trade, and Toronto should give him the present of a major-league debut. He’s hitting .307/.424/.429 in Triple A and he can definitely hit, although he needs to loft the ball more to turn some more of those hard-hit groundballs into line drives. He’s at least a quality bench bat who can back up third, second, and first, but I’d like to see if a new organization can get him to drive the ball more and maybe turn him into a regular. That’s three players with some sort of upside for a two-month rental of a pitcher who was replacement-level by bWAR. I’ll take that deal every day of the week. ________________________________________________________________________________ https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5667488/2024/07/29/yusei-kikuchi-trade-astros-blue-jays-stuff/ … But the Astros’ new lefty has a lot going for him. He has gas. At 95.7 mph on the four-seam, only Cole Ragans, Tarik Skubal, and Garrett Crochet average a higher number among qualified lefty starters. He also has great “ride” on the fastball — it doesn’t drop as much as hitters expect due to its spin — and only Ragans combines more velocity with that kind of ride among lefties, and even if you open it up to righties you only add Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow and their tremendous fastballs to the list. That’s an elite fastball. Velocity is also incredibly important for breaking pitches. At 89.2 mph on his slider, Kikuchi has the second-fastest slider among qualified starters. There’s Glasnow ahead of him, and that’s it. If you open it up to all pitchers, that kind of a slider with that type of gas and that much drop profiles similarly to the ones thrown by Jared Jones, Ryan Helsley, Cease and Tanner Scott. An 82.9 mph curveball puts him fifth on the list, behind Glasnow yet again along with Logan Gilbert. Velo is not always great for changeups, but his 87.2 mph change is of the power variety and also in the top 20 for qualified starters — and hitters are hitting under .200 on the pitch this season. Add up all of those pitch characteristics and Kikuchi is 11th in Stuff+ among qualified starters, just behind Luis Gil and a bit back from Glasnow, Gilbert and Corbin Burnes. By strikeouts minus walks, a powerfully predictive pitcher metric, he’s 15th, right behind Freddy Peralta and ahead of Gilbert. None of the pitchers ahead of him on those lists, save perhaps Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal, will likely be traded this deadline. So why does Kikuchi have an ERA that’s so bloated? Some part of it has to be luck. Thirty-four percent of his balls in play have gone for hits. That’s the worst ratio of his career, and a number that trends around 29-30 percent among all pitchers as a group. This is despite the defense behind him being rated as positive or at the top of the league by various defensive metrics. That’s weird. There’s also the fact that he probably doesn’t have great natural command. Earlier in his career, it was maybe even bad. Now it’s just around average, but it might manifest in an inflated home run rate. Or maybe the Astros have a different approach for Kikuchi to get the most out of his mix. Either way, Kikuchi will have either the best or second-best stuff among the starting pitchers traded at the deadline. The White Sox and Tigers might have some say in the matter. But the Astros should be very happy with their new hard-throwing left-hander. ________________________________________________________________________________ https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/st...trade-deadline-grades-report-cards-every-deal Astros grade: C+ If there was ever a prototypical trade-deadline deal, this is it. The Jays ship a walk-year midrotation starter to the contending Astros for a pitching prospect unranked before the season whose stock might be on the rise. Kikuchi was one of the better rental starters available at this deadline, and Houston needed the rotation help. After struggling in his first season with Toronto in 2022, Kikuchi put together enough success with the Jays that when he made his last outing at the Rogers Centre, he received a nice ovation from a crowd that knew he almost certainly was a goner. This season has seen Kikuchi match a solid K-rate (10.1 per nine innings) with a career-low walk rate (2.3), which translates to some solid defense-independent indicators. His ERA (4.90) looks inflated next to his FIP (3.64) and is not at all helped by a .344 BABIP. That's an outrageously unlucky figure that will regress, hence the evaluation as a midrotation guy. Now assuming Justin Verlander gets healthy, the Astros can point toward an October rotation led by Framber Valdez, Verlander and Hunter Brown, while selecting from Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco, among others, for a No. 4. That of course assumes Houston returns to October -- but this deal makes that a bit more likely. While it's an nice addition, the price feels pretty steep for a midrotation rental. Blue Jays grade: C+ Toronto needed to receive something from Kikuchi, considering they only had two months left with him. Bloss was a third-round pick last year by the Astros out of Georgetown, a school known more for shot-blocking centers and point guards with wicked crossovers than starting pitchers. But he rose quickly through the Houston system based on strong minor league numbers that included a hits-allowed rate of less than a half-hit per inning. That hasn't yet translated to the majors, but he is just getting started. Bloss throws six pitches, according to Statcast, and features a working velocity of about 93 mph on his four-seamer. After that, his arsenal rotates depending on the hitter: a slider to everybody, a curve/change combo to lefties and a sweeper he uses against righties. A lot of moving parts, sure, but that also is fodder for optimization, and those hit rates in the minors suggest someone hard to barrel up. Loperfido is a 40 FV ranked prospect who has a nice combo of contact, patience and pop. (He also is a budding chef whom I can confirm makes a mean paella. That's worth something, right?) Wagner, a Triple-A infielder with solid on-base numbers, is the son of Astros relief great Billy Wagner. All in all, this is an excellent return for a walk-year pitcher at Kikuchi's level, as the Blue Jays apparently were able to leverage Houston's win-right-now mindset against them. -- Doolittle
I agree… just miffed that they couldn’t sell them on somebody either younger/less proven or somebody older, and it was one of “their” guys vs. a holdover from a Click draft. Given that he was drafted earlier than Hunter Brown, and promoted faster than Hunter Brown, does he ultimately have a higher ceiling? Because him looking like a pitcher of the month/ace in his 2nd full season (like Brown is doing) won’t be palatable.
