"good health tended to elude Flaherty between 2020 and 2023. The struggle is indeed ongoing, as he's recently needed several injections to alleviate pain in his lower back. In three of the last four seasons, Flaherty has played in less than 20 games." Not good
I don't see that working for SF. The reason he is even on the market is they ate trying to cut payroll. And I disagree. If he has a Cy Caliber last 2 months and is healthy, I think he will look for a longer deal with more total dollars, than risk another season with the way pitchers get hurt. I think he would much rather have 4 years $88M than 1 year $30M. I'm thinking Montero, Zach Cole, Shay Whitcomb and $4M in 2025. Maybe a PTBNL if Snell does out.
One interesting note is that Snell’s 2024 salary was only $15M; the other $17M in 2024 came as a signing bonus that will not be transferred to any other team if he is traded. That means the hit to Houston’s 2024 CBT calculation would be <$8M. So there may not need to be any money changing hands. If SF wants all the 2025 money off their books, it will reduce the return. Houston will have an entire offseason to figure out how to adjust. But with Verlander not coming back, it’s <$20M difference in committed money. Moving Montero (with prospects attached to clear the entire salary) probably gets them in range of where they need to be.
My understanding of how it works if a player is traded with a contract for future years. Originally, the total dollars including signing bonus are added and then divided by the years to get AAV. If traded, the AAV is recalculated to only include money still owed. In Snell's case it only makes a $1M difference from $31M to $30M. 2024 salary is $15M and 2025 is $30M w/ a $17M signing bonus. If the salary had been divided equally $22.5M per season then the Astros would only owe that. I'm sure the Giants structured it this way to determine opting out. It makes veterans w/ back loaded deals less valuable to trade, while those front loaded are easier. Examples. 1) Bregman's 5yr $100M contract counts $20M to the CBT but if he had been traded in the off season, his CBT number for the new team would have been $30M as that is his 2024 salary. 2) If (crazy thought) the Astros decide to trade Jose Altuve before the 2029 season with 1 year left, the new team would only owe him $10M and he would only count $10M for them but if Astros keep him he counts $25M eventhough they only pay him $10M that year.
If I'm reading Snell's contract correctly he's signed for 30 mil next season, but 15 mil is deferred and will be paid on July 1st 2027. Does he think he can get more guaranteed money opting out after this year? Possibly. However his 1st half sucked and yes he's looked good over the past few weeks. Let's see how he does the rest of this season. He also needs to remember he wasn't able to get a long contract after last season (and he had just won the CY). So does he opt out after this yr looking for more $$ or does he take the 30 for next season and become a FA again after '25 (but he'll be a year older)?
We're staying pat or getting something that doesnt tip the scale. That injured list hurts. Hate it. We'd be clear cut favorites if they were all healthy.
The acquiring team would only be hit with the AAV of the pro-rated remaining amount for 2024 and 2025. The signing bonus is for 2024. From the MLBTR article: Snell signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants coming into 2024. That comes in the form of a $15MM salary and $17MM signing bonus, the latter of which is reportedly not transferable to a trade partner. He then has a $30MM player option for next year
I believe agents are trying to be more creative with backup plans so they can push for the max amount of dollars they can get in a long term deal. Deferring money is actually a cheap way of going about signing a contract and may be looked at in the next bargaining agreement. Until then, agents will push to get their client 8-10 years, leaving good 4-6 years on the table, knowing they could get 2-3 years with deferred money and opt outs. If Snell would've said he would take a 4 year deal last year I believe clubs would've jumped on it. I actually don't mind the shorter contracts personally.
I disagree - I think there is a high likelihood that Snell does opt out. The only way I see him not opting out is if he is injured or falls apart. The Astros, Orioles and Yankees all have interest. The Giants so far are holding the position that they want actual prospects for him and expiring contracts. To be clear - I am not criticizing your opinion, I just disagree with it.
I believe the Astros would love for Snell to pitch well down the stretch and not opt out. They would love adding a potential hammer in the rotation with a limited commitment long term - indeed it is their dream situation. If they have to, they can literally pay a team with prospects to take Montero this winter. As for 1st base, there are going to be some possible options this Winter that will not be terribly expensive - assuming they do not deal for someone like Yandy to play there.
Yandy Diaz and Kevin Gausman have seemed like the best fits for awhile now. I would love for Houston to add those 2 guys plus a reliever project like Michael Kopech or an optionable buy-low SP like Trevor Rogers.
I agree that would be best case for the Astros, if he was healthy and that hammer you refer to. The problem is that pitchers get hurt and everyone knows it. If Snell finishes the season healthy, I think teams would line up to give him a 3-4 yr / $75-$100M deal. And I don't see how he turns down the security of another $45M+ in guaranteed money. I can't see him risking his future with that 1 year deal when a guarantee like that should be out there and pitchers are so likely to get hurt.
They’re not going to stand pat. At a minimum they will overpay for a middling SP. But 90% of the trades haven’t happened yet. I still expect them to make a meaningful move.
I would give Snell 4 years and 100 mil and use Bregs, JV's money to pay for Snell. That's if he's Cy Snell this year in the playoffs.
Snell seems like would be the trick of all tricks at this point. Snell, with Tucker and Garcia coming back. Penn Murphee (spelling). Add Mountcastle and lets fight.
