Lol, again, this from a weirdo who cried himself to sleep at night for years because I said Corey Brewer was Jalen Green's floor.....
Are you really telling me because multiple people are upset that I don't think them literal floor of Sheppard is a championship level stetting pg is a indication I should revaluate? No dude. Reed Sheppard's.floornis not FVV. You can say that is a reasonable expectation with hopefully more possiblity due to his athleticism advantage over FVV. But saying his floor his FVV is unhinged. Straight up moon man talk. Can you tell me what I'm back peddling? My initial disagreement is that Reed Sheppard's floor isn't FVV and I still adamantly believe that and believe anyone who does believe that is his floor are either trolling or lost the plot. It's an insane statement. Moon man level.
Let's put it this way... if FVV is his floor than what is his mid? Mid would be an expectation where if he falls below you'd be disappointed. Right now if you say his floor is FVV you are saying you'd be disappointed if he reaches that. So what level of player does he need to match to not be disappointing? Haliburton?
You could have just disagree about Reed's floor being FVV, and that could be a valid discussion. People didn't get "unhinged" until you claimed that EVERY drafted player had the SAME floor which was out of the league after rookie contract. Go back and read about the several consecutive reply posts. They did not argue with you about Sheppard's floor. They pointed out how ludicrous it was to claim that every player has the same floor. Instead of admitting, "OK, I exaggerated a bit," or "let me clarify," you backpaddled by saying the probability of being out of the league was larger than being the GOAT, which had nothing to do with the logic of your claim. The only thing that was unhinged was your exaggerated claim. People used a more exaggerated claim to show the glaring flaw of your logic and you turned around and said they were unhinged.
When wrong, narcissists can only: backpedal, change subject, or blame others … and sometimes all three at the same time
Instead of psychoanalysis, how about not put words in my mouth? Every player in this draft has a floor of not being in the league after their first contract. Some drafts have guys like Zion, Wemby etc where if you assume no catastrophic injury they will be in the league after their first contact before they play a NBA game. The floors differentiate once they have some NBA games under their belt unless like I said it's some generational level prosect. We are talking about dudes who haven't played a NBA game yet. So Sheppard's floor is a player of his size and/or archetype that didn't survive more than one contract like Jimmer. But that doesn't mean their ceilings are all the same. Sheppard's ceiling is much higher than what Jimmer was supposed to be in the eyes of his fans. I know Jimmy has more than one NBA contract but they were fringe contracts That's his floor. I seriously doubt he'll hit his floor so I'm not dismissing what Sheppard can be.
Let's be real, the Jalen Green cultist is just trying to run down yet another Rockets player because he's afraid his guy is about to be dumped. It's incredibly transparent.
A floor should be a 5th-10th percentile outcome: aka, his comp as a bust. A ceiling should be a 90th-95th percentile outcome, if everything breaks right within reason. After 3 years, Jalen's hovering around a 30th-40th percentile outcome. Clearly possessing real talent and skills but simply isn't efficient enough as a shooter or a playmaker to justify his usage. A 10th percentile outcome for him would be a Tyler Ulis or Josh Christopher type where it's obvious he's only getting playing time because the team is losing 60 games a year. A 90th percentile outcome would have been Anthony Edwards or Ja Morant, a small guard who can really run his team's offense. Sengun's produced something like an 85th-90th percentile outcome for him, everything's gone right for him except 3 point shooting. Sabonis was always the high end outcome and it looks like he'll surpass him. A 10th percentile outcome would be a Jahlil Okafor where he's such a liability on defense combined with not being athletic enough on offense where he's simply unplayable. Reed's 5th percentile outcome from what I've seen is something like a worse Grayson Allen, where the shooting doesn't fully translate and he can't do much else on the court. That player plays 8 years in the league, but comes off the bench. A 95th percentile outcome is Steve Nash with a 40 inch vertical. Reed is definitely a safer pick than the two above, I decided not to even try to evaluate anyone from 2022 or 2023 for obvious reasons.
There were absolutely players in this draft whose floor is higher than out of the league in a few years. Sheppard is closer to FVV than TyTy and Nix. There might 1 or 2 lottery picks in this draft who don't get a 2nd NBA contract and my bet is Sheppard is not one of them.
That a bet that he isn't one of them rather than being a floor. You don't take a bet on a 5-10% outcome. You take a bet on the mid outcome which would be a FVV level player.
You're no more likely to hit the 50th percentile than the 5th or 95th percentile. Of 100 similar-ish players coming in, there'd be one at every percentile.
Predicting ceilings and floors are just projections into the future. Of course he could flame out just as any player could. That should go without saying and not needing to get into back and forth arguments with multiple people on the subject. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and my prediction of FVV being his floor is just MY opinion. It is perfectly fine to agree to disagree but you just like to argue. Serious question, are you married? If so, do you pick arguments with your wife all the time.
Why are you telling me it's your opinion? I already know. I'm explaining why I disagree and believe it's a crazy take. That's my opinion.
Is that hesitation a double dribble at 24 seconds? I think Sheppard reeds and manipulates the defense very well. Combined with being very comfortable pulling up going in any direction of the dribble, coming off a screen, or after a move or fake. It allows him to get his shot off cleanly in rhythm without having to worry about getting blocked. The instant he catches his man relaxing, backpedaling, or going under a screen he begins his shot motion. Very good decision maker, it helps that he can hit shots from anywhere
Hope to see a lot of line ups with Reed running point alongside the other main 6. Think they're going to be a lot of fun to watch. It's crazy, given how young he is, what kind of influence I think he'll have on the rest.
Good video and it matches what i saw from him. Also, i said before we drafted him he'll need to cut back on his turnovers. Im not too worried about it though because i think most come from a lack of experience rather than a lack of skill. He needs to tighten up on his on ball defense. Because of his lack of size there will always be certain things he cant do, so the things he can do he needs to do them consistently well. He has the quickness to stay with opposing guards when hes locked in. Again, i feel like this is coachable and an experience thing. Overall i was extremely pleased and he looked the part. Like the video said. Its a really good sign that he didnt shoot well from three and was still really efficient scoring as a primary ball handler. I see him as a guy who will contribute and be a winning player from day one and as he tightens up on his overall game/weaknesses he will tap into his star upside.
