I didn't mention the leagues best defenders. I just mentioned better defenders than he faced in SL. Better defenders than Daishen Nix.
Firstly, I think Veccenie and the other guy are very good on their podcast. They are very knowledgeable about things across the league and anytime I listen to them. They know what they are talking about. and I thought that they were spot on here. I would much rather have seen what we did instead of hitting 50% of his three-point shots but not being so impactful with passing, stonks and mid range.
Vecenie doesn't like to talk about physical limitations. Reed compliments all the athletes very well though. I just think Vecenie talks about individuals more than team outcome, outlook and results.
Reed is one of those athletes. He’s just not long. But he’s good to elite by NBA standards in every traditional athletic trait.
Beal's career average is 21/4/4 on .566 TS%. I have no idea what his defense is but assuming Jalen gets those numbers and improve slightly on his defense, he's going to get the max from the Rockets and I don't see anything wrong with it. This is a Sheppard thread so I'll keep the Jalen Green talk to a minimum, but I did note in the Green thread some of the "max" guys on championship teams are. I think the hypothetical Green I mentioned above is good enough to be in that range. But back to the Reed Sheppard ceiling question. To me Green's ceiling is 3rd guy on a contender. Sheppard right now has Curry-lite potential. So something like 25ppg on .600 TS% and huge amount of off-ball gravity. Which I think can be a borderline top-10 player. Sengun if his shooting keeps developing has about the same ceiling. Amen with an average shot is essentially a superstar but of course him reaching average shot is pretty far, so lots of boom and bust there. And Cam has Jaylen Brown ceiling which is 2nd guy on a contender. All these guys I'd put above Jalen Green's potential.
If Cam has Jalen Brown ceiling than Jalen has SGA, Ant ceiling. There is nothing to suggest that Can has a higher ceiling than Green. The literal only thing he is guaranteed to be better at is strength. Green is more agile, significantly better ball handler, significantly better at running a pnr offense. Understand that rookie Green and Cam had the exact same adjusted scoring efficiency the only difference was that Green did it at almost twice the rate of self created buckets. Cam had the same efficiency as rookie Jalen but with a significantly larger ratio of his buckets on car h and shoot, attacking closeouts from more talented players like Jalen breaking down the actual defense, and in transition when defenders are back peddling and not set. Oh and then there is the fact he averages more turnovers than assists.
Jalen Wilson won the Summer League MVP but only made Summer League Second Team? How does that make any sense?
If he said Shepp has more upside than anybody including Alpe Sengun then I can only say hahaha. He is an expert however he has not bought himself the accuracy of prediction.
Nah - Vecenie will talk about physical limitations and issues - however he also realizes that the league right now is the most skill driven it has been in 45 years. While athleticism and size is always valuable, a lot of the trends in the game are pointed towards skills and the ability to read the floor. Doesn’t guarantee anything for Reed - he still has to go out and do it, but playing in this era and with his skill set, he has high upside. Anyway - that is why Vecenie basically ejaculated talking about Reed in the Summer League… and he is parroting what a lot of other executives and scouts are saying… he watches games with them, he talks to them. He hears what they say.
I think he projects young players and playing styles of teams but I have never seen him getting into the who wins it this year talk...... And I have rarely seen him promoting a player like Reed over Alperen Sengün and the entire Rockets prospects...that is a first to me. And he never struck me as a person to wants to be right so this kind of early prediction is not Vecenie like at all. I would be all over drafts of the next 2 years than on Sheppard's jock to be honest. I love advanced stats like the next dude but I am not sweating it every year because one guy has nice advanced stats......
My point was, giving max money to players that dont deserve it is a bad recipe. The person I quoted was the one who said Beal didnt deserve it, not me.
Next year’s draft really has nothing to do with it - he doesn’t like Sheppard more than the top players in the 2025 draft. He likes Sheppard more than the other players in the 2024 draft. Vecenie also said that he believed that the Rockets lack a franchise player - so saying Sheppard has the highest upside on the roster isn’t quite going out on a limb. Vecenie is really good at what he does - and admits when he is wrong or isn’t sure. He discusses team fits, etc - but not when the focus is on the draft… but he has done it when discussing teams in general. Also - it isn’t just analytics, it is the nuance of the league and the particular skill set a player has - and even that is just an educated guess…. Some guys surprise (Sabonis) and some guys are so disappointing that they almost seem to not try (Marvin Bagley). As far as Vecenie sticking his neck out for Reed - he is, he really likes him - but admits he doesn’t know how good he will be, only that he will be good.
Well, he will be against a few people here. A table setter is rarely an allround guy like Lebron or a great scorer in the mold of Antman, Jordan... This would be the first time a JJ Redick guy that has Hornacek traits and Stockton traits to be called a potential superstar. We would be lucky if he is one third of Kyrie Irving. What I have seen from him is that he is a pretty slow driver for his age and not quick. He leaps yet he is not tons explosive. Pretty much what made Fred VV limited, more athletic dwarf. And I do think the next two drafts are still in the peer class of Reed, therefore important to him and evaluating him. Rivals.
And lastly if he turned out better than everyone else, then it would be more that the Rox failed to develop Amen and Cam in the end. Nobody wants to see that.
