Draftkings initially posted a 41.5 win total O/U yesterday, which seemed obviously too low to me. Looks like the sharps agreed, it’s moved to 42.5 already. I anticipate it creeping up further. Previous year net rating is the best predictor we have, and HOU was a 46 win expectancy team from net rating last year. There are a whole bunch of reasons for improvement - just based on age curves and injury recovery we should expect improved play from 8/10 rotation spots, and regression at none. The only argument for regression is opponent 3pt shooting success, where we were “lucky” last year. Still we weren’t a huge outlier there , and sometimes poor opponent 3pt shooting is not “luck” - teams with long athletic wings tend to consistently do well there, like BOS and NOP. Meanwhile with all the talk of a Western Conference bloodbath, there are 4-5 teams above us that have clear regression reasons - LAL, GSW, PHX, LAC, DEN - and by my count 6 or 7 teams in the league that will likely hard tank at some point this season, more than last year.
I'll go 45 wins just because I always try to be lower-c conservative about these things. But given our net rating last season, additions, the likelihood of internal improvement from seven (7!!!) young promising players, I think there is some upside to get as high as 50+ and be this season's version of last season's Thunder team. That could happen either from a bunch of guys getting a little bit better and good injury luck, and/or 1-2 guys having major breakout seasons.
Im hoping for a OKC type leap. If there was a team to make that type of leap this season it's either us or the Magic.
I've gone for 48-49 but what the **** is this poll? Do real ranges instead of ranges of 2 which make no ****in sense, the way you've set this up is too granular so you won't get much of a good trend/impression from it at all. I'm actually in the 45-50 range, I think as long as we don't get injuries out the wazoo we should be a playoff team this year.
Interesting that Vegas has Houston at 41.5 wins. I think folks are underestimating how hard it’s gonna be to win in the west. I have us at 44-45 wins.
Ya mid 40s would be a great season. Fvv and alpi are good but we don’t have anyone who’s close to a top 10 player and you need that to get close to 50
There is a basic baseline and positives and negatives that will impact it on the Win scale. 42 Wins is a decent starting number, if they go on a big run, 51 wins is not out of the question, if they suffer fatal injury blows then 38 Wins is not out of the question like last year when Stone refused to trade for a major piece at the deadline and it seemed the team was capsizing. Nobody knew draft luck and the pick ending at 3rd. The West is tough, at the same time opponents have injuries and tough slumps as well, it evens out.
I think 45-37 is a good, not overly ambitious prediction for wins. I'm not expecting a championship or a deep playoff run, just continued progress and hopefully some great play from our core players. Development isn't a marathon NOR is it a sprint--it's a ME, MARIO!
With our depth and new players taken we should get effective play from all positions, all season and coach trying to win; some will just get buried on the bench just because of math (playing time). This season is do or die for some, so I expect the season to be filled with media all the while the wins just keep coming in. Overall our players as a whole has been very passive till now that it’s payday. We seen team first but the team has not been forth coming with extensions. This maybe become a bigger show then what’s on the court. We are three deep across the depth chart with at least one potential star at each position. Not everyone is going to stay happy the math (cap space) isn’t there.
I’m going 44-45 wins, a lot of it depends on which Jalen shows up if he does make a leap or not, Segun has had to improve his 3 point shot this offseason, and then of course factor in the strength of our schedule, and if we make a big trade or not. But I do think we improve from last year
I predicted around 36 wins before last season began. Then after a good start, I quickly changed my expectation to 40 wins. 40 ended up pretty close. I'm going to be conservative again this season and say 46 Ws. Hope the same will happen again.
I don't think 46 is conservative. It's more of a reasonable prediction if there are no major set backs like a Alpi injury. The Rockets were really unfortunate last season to miss the playoffs especially given that the Rockets broke a NBA record for most wins for a 11th seed. That just is unfortunate timing to make a leap as a franchise. This should have been a playoff team last seaaon for any other normal year.
I am assuming a relatively healthy core. Adding 5 wins to last season's squad is kind of conservative to me. We added Adams and Sheppard. Tari is coming back. Landale looks like he is fully healthy now. All the young guys have one more year of experience under their belt. The only thing that will hold us back is injuries. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Honestly, I feel like, if you take out any player other than fvv from the roster, this team can still beat 40 wins.
Yeah, we are pretty deep in terms of talents. We are actually worried about enough PT for everybody. Even if FVV goes down for a not-too-long stretch, there's a good chance that someone will step up. The Rockets' concern going forward is not depth but identifying or acquiring the real cornerstones.
