Anderson is awful. He looks good on the surface but his underlying metrics say he is getting by on pure luck.
The thing about the Padres is that they will be a sell to buy team, like we have seen in the past. Cronenworth is expendable because they have Arraez, Bogaerts, Kim, and Machado in the infield and Tyler Wade and Donovan Solano as backups. They are very shallow in OF but it would take MLB, not minor league, talent for a deal. They also were trying to get out from under Cronenworth's contract this past offseason and ownership is in flux, because the primary owner passed away late last year. They currently have an "interim club control person" His contract is longer than Crane would like but with a reasonable AAV. AAV of $12.286 thru 2030.
If they want to get out from under the contract then a Melton, Mancini type deal should get done. Truth is. with ownership in flux we don't know what they're going to do. But teams that are up for sale and are having financial difficulties usually try to shed salary.
FYI he’s talking about Tyler Anderson not Tim. He’s not as good as his numbers suggest but he’s a capable #5 and an innings eater.
I would much rather include Melton in a package for a decent SP than for Cronenworth. Hard pass if that’s what it takes. His bat isn’t great for a 1B.
How about he'd be better than some of the guys they might have to trot out there. There's no guarantee when Garcia will be back and when he comes back how he'll look. On top of that there's not going to be many starting pitchers available and there are quite a few teams who will be looking for help. So the price to acquire the players who are available will go up. The Astros need someone who can eat innings and the sooner the better!! Thus the question "what would it take to get Anderson"?
My respect for Singleton has gone up more than I thought possible when this season began. I know we could do better at first base but it does not feel like an urgent need at this juncture. He has shown improvement every game. He will never be a defensive wizard but he is consistently making plays I would have never expected him to even attempt when this year began. Bringing up Bluebaugh and Gusto to add some innings to the rotation needs to happen over the break. Opening up a place in the pen by offloading Montero is probably my top priority at this point. Heading to the trade deadline with your hair on fire is a really bad idea. Feeling sanguine about the team's ability to compete as it stands will make for better deadline decisions.
The only issue with Anderson IMO is whether teams will overpay/overvalue for him based on the season he’s had thus far. Then, the underlying metrics come into play and his point is valid. He should be pretty reasonable cost wise if the value is a #4 or #5 type SP like he truly is instead of a #2 or #3 type like the season he’s had thus far. I would take him if it’s the former.
Ok following up again on your comment that "Anderson is awful". Does this sound "awful" to you? Here's some of his starts this yr. Baltimore 5 IP 2 runs Philly 6 IP 3 runs K.C. 6.2 IP 3 runs @ TEX 7 IP 1 run @ Houston 8 IP 1 run Yankees 5 IP 1 run S.D. 6.2 IP 1 run Brewers 7 IP 1 run @ CUBS 8 IP 0 runs For the yr. 19 starts. 118 innings 6.21 innings per start 2.97 era 1.169 ops Plays for a God awful team. And you look at these #s and come to the conclusion that he's "awful"??? Like I said, this team desperately needs someone who can eat innings, and not only has Anderson done this but he's had some incredible outings against some of the best teams in baseball. Good grief I don't mean to be a jerk here but if you really think these #s say he's "awful" and "lucky" you're clueless.
I don't have a stance one way or the other on Anderson... but he's probably looking at his FIP (4.61), which is around his career FIP, which suggests he will likely regress as the year goes on. He's not awful, and he would fill the role of innings eater (like I brought up he who should not be named in another thread... 2015 acquisition that was a key innings eater in the dog days of 2017, pre JV).
Double edge sword. Take whatever you can get as soon as you can get it. . . . Less roster space, prospects capital, and payroll to get someone better. I think if the choice is giving up prospects using a roster space, and paying Anderson vs seeing what Gusto or Blubaugh can do then I choose the young ones. I simply don't think there's much of a chance of him being better. Or enough better for it to be worth it.
How about: .228 BABIP vs MLB avg .295. He is getting very lucky on balls in play. 16.8% K vs MLB avg 22.4%. He allows more balls to he put in play. 9.8% BB vs MLB avg of 8.5%. He walks more so fewer outs on balls in play + more baserunners = more likely to give up runs. 36.8% ground ball rate vs MLB avg of 43.0%. Less likely to take advantage of Astros good infield defense. 30.8% flyball rate vs MLB avg of 24.0%. More flyballs, more potential HR. He has given up 14 HR. All games in his home park it would be 13. In Houston it would be 15. According to Baseball savant his expected ERA is 30th percentile and expected BA is 40th percentile. His K% is 14th percentile and BB% is 29th percentile. His barrel % is 35th percentile. He is getting by with smoke and mirrors and not worth the risk of becoming a bad starting pitcher.
Whatever he's doing it's working and against some really good teams. Plus he'd have a much better defense behind him. I never implied he was an ace or a TOR pitcher. Someone who could eat innings and keep us in the game which he does pretty damn well. However you want to try and spin it there's no way that he's "awful" and I'd run him out there over Bloss or Blubaugh or Arrighetti in a heartbeat. Now back to my original question to snake. What the cost would be to acquire him?
I bet it woukd be very cheap. He's a rental so has you are only paying for 2 months of him and none of the smart teams will want him, so there will be little competition. 2 lottery ticket prospects. Maybe Jordan Brewer and Aaron Brown? Edit: that may be extreme. Say Colin Barber and Andrew Taylor. Edit again. The biggest cost would be requiring to keep him on the roster while Blubaugh or Gusto are still in Sugar Land and likely better than him.
Just looked at his contract and he actually is signed for next yr at 13 mil. So he may be a little too expensive in terms of the financial aspect.
Thanks. I tried to go by memory and it's been pretty unreliable since I became a grandfather. All the more reason to stay away. I would not want them to have that $13M on the books for next year.
