IIRC, inflation in late 2022 was just below 9%, the highest in 40 years what a difference Fed's fine-tuning makes---leveraging the effect of Quantitative Tightening---in just 18 months as reported by Bloomberg, Mortgage rates in the US dropped for the fifth time in six weeks.
intellectual dishonesty on your part. from Trump, Biden inherited a 6.3%; Biden admin's prolific job creation has lower it to below 4% By the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, the unemployment rate came to 3.6 percent, the lowest rate ever to fight inflationary pressure, Fed's QT measures [derided by some ill-informed, and often parroted by you, as wrecking the balance sheet] were implemented to cool the labor market; it has been effective, as evidenced by the latest CPI data. while the labor market has cooled, unemployment in the low 4% range is still nearing the historic low
It's partially the Fed, but IMO a lot of was just supply chain/services consumption rebalancing that would have occurred anyway and reduced inflation anyway. People are acting like it's mystical thing that we achieved immaculate disinflation, but in retrospect is it really THAT surprising given how much a black swan event the COVID pandemic was and what a huge impact that had on consumption patterns? Most of the "inflation is impossible to get down, will take years, decades!" crew were basically using a single historical example, the 1970's/80s as their entire sample size for making predictions. But, different things are different.
unemployment either rose from 4.0 percent to 4.1 percent last month, or it did not. Empirically verifiable claim.
just for the sake of discussion, what eg would you use instead? what led to the "services consumption rebalancing" ? it started w the Fed's monetary policy to raise rate, as well as its open market operation to sell Gov bonds to the public. these monetary measures reduced $ supply in circulation, which has the effect of reducing demand (consumption) but it is. correct me if i am wrong, in the annals of mankind, we've never experienced a nascent global trade war immediately followed by a global pandemic sprinkled w business shutdowns; add to it Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which drastically affect the cost of energy and cereal/wheat products
Like, I would use *nothing* as a historical comparison because episodes of inflation in the US are very rare - like I said there's basically 1 period prior to 2020 in living memory. Likewise, episodes in other countries aren't really good parallels because their economic structure isn't very similar. If periods of inflation were very common in the US in the postwar era, and remedies were very common - I'd be more confident saying, oh yeah that was caused by X and then resolved by Y, as it was in these other instances. But they just aren't. By supply imbalance - I mean the pandemic totally reframed demand for certain goods vs certain services (toilet paper, remember those shortages? Or the Great lumber price spike of 2021) and then whipsawed into services as things reopened (revenge travel), or as services had to account for higher costs (also labor market disruption too) - it's just a lot of change for an economy to handle in a short period, particularly where supply is attuned to tightly match demand. So, you get what some economists were calling "transitory" inflation as things rebalanced. Now I know lots of people scoffed at so called team transitory in 2022, and Krugman famously admitted he underestimated it, but ultimately things did settle back down - it just took maybe 6 months-1 year longer than Team Transitiry expected, but certainly didn't take the years and years of grinding stagflation that some others (Summers, Furman) predicted it would
Are you talking about the household survey? Yes indeed this is empirically verifiable data via BLS - of course, it's pretty noisy and is constantly subject to later revision (obviously, with the new regime of extremist right wing judges taking the place of agencies, post Chevron, and of course after Project 2025, it may be subject to insane levels of revision or abolished entirely).... But I see you are actually getting it from a lady on channel 17 News in Raleigh - real chud stuff bro.
nothing would get you nowhere insofar as containing inflation. The 10 Highest Annual Inflation Rates in U.S. History 1917: 17.84% 1918: 17.28% 1920: 15.63% 1919: 15.24% 1947: 14.39% 1980: 13.55% 1979: 11.25% 1974: 11.06% 1942: 10.92% 1981: 10.34% thus, that makes the soft landing piloted by Powell---inflation declining from 8.9% to 2.97% in just 18 months, while the GDP continue to grow, w unemployment rate still nearing historic lows---a BIG deal, worthing of nobel prize consideration. that captured the essences of the US economic landscape months just before the Russia invasion of Ukraine, in Feb 2022, which drastically increased energy and food pricess globally
Lol… it’s almost like there was a major oil shock in the 70s that had nothing to do with gold or USD.
a graphical depiction of the effectiveness of the Fed QT measures ---PCE declining from >7% to the 2.6% in 18 months---to contain inflationary pressure. as a result, Bloomberg is forecasting for 2 cuts in 2024
Home prices in swing states have nearly doubled since 2020 https://thehill.com/business/housing/4776085-home-prices-swing-states-nearly-doubled-since-2020/ excerpt: Housing costs in the states most likely to determine this year’s presidential election have risen by 92 percent since 2020, according to data from Redfin. The median monthly housing payment for homebuyers in this year’s swing states — Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina — is now at an all-time high of $2,161 as home prices and mortgage rates have increased. A family in a swing state needs to earn at least $86,421 a year if they want to follow the commonly accepted rule that households should spend 30 percent of their income on housing, according to Redfin. That’s nearly double the income a family in a swing state needed in 2020 — $45,140. more at the link
I’m no realtor, but I am always watching comps around me and I’ve noticed prices going down significantly in the last 6-10 months. Smart money isn’t buying a $400k house for $650k at 9% interest (that’s if you have good credit). There’s A LOT of idiots on this earth. New builds are still outrageous, and it’s comical given the half ass effort being put into these huge MPCs. I’d be shocked if most of these new homes last 30-40 years.
Quality of houses has been a big concern of mine. Im not sure I could ever buy a house from one of these national builders.
They're offering more incentives to sell though. I'd spend extra on the inspector to go above and beyond.
