https://www.semafor.com/article/07/...ld-open-up-democratic-race-if-biden-drops-out As the Democratic Party convulses over questions about President Joe Biden’s mental fitness, a pair of well-connected Democrats is offering an optimistic plan that would involve the president stepping down as the nominee and the party announcing a “blitz primary” process ahead of the August convention. The proposal is the work of Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown University law professor who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations and as a volunteer policy adviser to the Biden campaign in 2020, and Ted Dintersmith, a venture capitalist and education philanthropist who has donated to various Democratic campaigns. They want Biden to flip the script on the current Washington narrative of a Democratic Party in chaos and for the party to see the current period as an opportunity for a reset. “In the midst of malaise and crisis, we can forge an uplifting path,” Dintersmith told Semafor. Their idea goes something like this, according to a memo shared with Semafor that has been circulated to Democratic donors and bundlers as well as officials within the Biden campaign and administration: *Biden would step down as the Democratic nominee in mid-July, and announce the new system, with backing from Vice President Kamala Harris. *Potential candidates would have a few days to throw their respective hats in the ring. The Democratic Party then would begin a primary sprint in which the six candidates who receive the most votes from delegates pledge to run positive-only campaigns in the month leading up to the convention. *The “blitz primary” would involve weekly forums with each candidate moderated by cultural icons (Michelle Obama, Oprah, and Taylor Swift are among the names floated in the memo) in order to engage voters. *The nominee would ultimately be chosen by the delegates using ranked choice voting before the start of the Chicago convention on Aug. 19. *It would be announced with plenty of fanfare on the third day of the gathering. The memo imagines the nominee unveiled on stage with Biden, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. According to its authors, the country would be captivated. Donations would pour in. And Biden would be celebrated as a “modern-day George Washington,” the proponents argue. “We can limp to shameful, avoidable democracy-ending defeat. Or Democrats can make this Our Finest Hour. While we hope for help from Lord Almighty, the Lord helps those who help themselves,” the memo states, alluding to Biden’s recent interview with ABC anchor George Stephanopolous in which he said only the “Lord Almighty” could force him from the race. “We need to act. Now.” The Biden campaign did not immediately return a request for comment.
Democrats are so evil they would probably poison poor little Joe if he doesn't step down in the next two weeks.
This article addresses key questions about whether Joe Biden can drop out of the 2024 presidential race: Can Biden legally drop out? Yes, he can retire from the race at any time. What about campaign finances? Contrary to some claims, Biden's campaign funds (about $240 million) could be transferred to the DNC or state party committees for use by another candidate. Is it too late for another Democrat to get on the ballot? No, it's not too late. State laws typically allow whoever is nominated at the party convention to be on the ballot. (there might be one exception in WI -- still not sure about this) What's stopping Biden from dropping out? According to the article, nothing but the will of Biden and his close advisors. The article argues that claims about legal or financial obstacles are being used to discourage considering alternatives. G Updated at 4:30 p.m. ET on July 6, 2024 Why is Joe Biden still in the presidential race? In the days since his disastrous debate performance last week, pressure on the 81-year-old incumbent to step aside has continued to mount, forcing the candidate and his defenders to put forth elaborate rationales for why the only option is the status quo. One that has gained traction among Biden’s supporters is that the campaign war chest, about $240 million, is his alone—or, at best, could go only to Vice President Kamala Harris. ... People in power rely on a deference to the status quo. They rely on the difficulty of imagining change, of plotting a path to a better outcome. They rely on making you feel like you have to accept the hand you’re given. And right now they’re pretending there’s no way for anything other than the Biden-Trump matchup the country dreads.
The stark reality, and I think engaged Democrats know this even if they won't admit it, is that the 2024 Presidential race is already over, or "Joever" if you prefer. Democrats have two options: 1. Run Biden. By every metric Biden is getting absolutely murdered. He barely won in 2020 and things presently look much, much worse and the debate was sought by his people because they were behind, the debate definitively put a nail in his coffin. The main talking point from here to November will be about his age and cognitive abilities and he doesn't have the ability to assuage those concerns. If anything, those cognitive abilities likely get worse. Every word he utters will be particularly scrutinized, every step he takes people will be read into etc etc. Biden has little-to-no chance of winning the election. 2. Replace Biden. This will be a logistical and practical nightmare. Biden doesn't want to step down. He is resisting. The party is being divided amongst people who want to push him out, those who want him to stay and those who want to let him decide. It's an absolute mess. It's a house divided. Plus, The clock is ticking here. The second thing is, who replaces him? Biden is the nominee and the voters voted for him to be the nominee, people will be upset they were disenfranchised if he is replaced and someone new is anointed the Democratic nominee. Will the new person be progressive? Will the new person be more centrist? This will cause division and fighting. None of this is good for Democrats. Plus, who can realistically beat Trump? No potential nominees are polling well. These issues ^ are going to suck all the energy out of the room. Trump will be getting far less attention then normal, all his baggage is already baked in, he's already covered in as much mud as it's basically possible to cover a candidate in and campaign wise, things are going famously for him. He's up 6, while at the same time last election he was down 10 and barely lost. Most prognostications have him winning in a landslide and possibly flipping a number of states that haven't gone red in decades. It's Joever barring some unforseen miracle or black swan event.
40/60 is not far from a coin flip. We aren't at 40/60. 538 still has it at 50/50 (not poll, but who is favored to win the election). Popular takes were that the 2016 election was over before it wasn't (538 was yelling that it wasn't over). The DEMs need to strategize for the best path forward, which may still be Biden.
Polls dramatically underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020. Clinton and Biden were heavy favorites according to the polls and Clinton lost in 2016 and Biden barely won in 2020. Now if the polls are saying its even... what is a reasonable take away based on that history?
See link for their methodology. Polls aren’t saying they are even. National polls may not even matter. IIRC, Clinton vs Trump was around 70 to 30 according to 538. And again, as of now, 538 has it at 50 to 50. Polls did underestimate Trump in 2016 and 2020. Polls also underestimate DEM in 2022 and most special elections. “538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.”
The idea that being owned by Disney makes a news department not independent in matters unrelated to Disney is silly. You've clearly bought into the hype.
Its bad no doubt for the Democrats but I don't think the race is anywhere over. While the last two weeks have been awful Biden actually hasn't dropped that much in the polls and is still within margin of error or striking distance in many polls. This largely due to that Trump himself is so unpopular so it's likely replacing him that anti Trump vote will still be there. Biden didn't barely win in 2020. He won by over 8 million popular votes and 100 electoral. While it was close in the battleground states Biden still won in PA and MI by larger margins than Trump did in 2016. For that matter he added GA and AZ two states which Democrats hadn't won in awhile. Given again that the polls aren't showing a complete free fall in Biden's supports it is still possible that if Biden stays he could still win. Again the last two weeks have crystalized that most of Biden's support is anti-Trump. Without Biden on the ticket that support will largely remain. Other polls are showing Harris within striking distance of Trump. At the moment no other Democrats have the name recognition but if the issue is age certainly a younger Democrat will not only inherent the anti-Trump vote but also put to rest the issue of age. For the 2020 election I'm sure there were some polls who had Trump down 10 but I recall many polls putting him much closer. In general though from what I recall is that Biden in terms of popular vote did what was expected and outperformed polling in some of the swing states. Especially GA and AZ where trump was leading in the polls and also in NC which Biden lost narrowly. Definitely the 2024 election looks bad and it makes sense that the money is on Trump but it's not the slam dunk that is being portrayed.
I think Biden needs to start talking about his Presidency as a TEAM around him, and how much they have accomplished, and how their TEAM has ZERO indictments.... Let people know that yes, clearly he is old, but if he goes, the TEAM will carry on.....and the other guys team is full of Racists, crooks and conmen. DD
