Yeah there are a few obvious reasons why it would likely be Harris. Mostly because a fast, and messy primary could be too difficult to pull off. That being said, if there is a way to pull it off, it would be preferable of course than Harris simply taking over Biden's delegates and pushing forward. There are strong candidates from a polling perspective, but I do at the same time think Kamala could end up being a much better candidate than people think. Democrats needs to shield themselves from the MAGA bully tactics. The most ruthless MAGA strategists years ago pointed at her as a threat they needed to neutralize, and while Kamala hasn't helped herself much, their campaign to define Kamala through propaganda, bullying, and basically mind control has worked, and Democrats are now scared of her because they believe the Republican lies to some extent. So yes I'd rather see Whitmer at the top of the ticket too, but that doesn't mean that I believe Kamala is nearly as bad as Republicans tell us she is.
Great post, but there is something fundamental about Kamala and her voice and bearing that rubs people the wrong way, just a basic mammalian level. In many of her appearances, she seems like she's trying to be something she is not. I thought she was most authentic as a senator. Just kind of whip smart, unsmiling, and brutal. Not sure if that version is electable, but I do wonder if she's more electable being herself instead of playing the "whacky aunt" nasal voice routine. (shrug)
Great take and i agree with you.... The only other choice they have is that a miracle happens and they convince Michelle Obama to run for President.... They have very few options. T_Man
Here is the thing. The Democrats need a Handsome Charismatic White Man Why? White Women ain't voting Democrat I don't think they have in decades . . . . White Women are the main ones ensuring Trump/Republican Victories No one expects white men to vote majority Democrat Heck . . .their is only some mild hope of white women voting under 55% for Republicans That said. Kamala = Black and Woman - Not appealing to White Women (they didn't support Hillary a fellow white woman . .. ) --- This would more than Rally them to make opposition votes Pete Buttigieg - He is openly gay - If he was closetted maybe he could win. White Women ain't voting for a gay man --- This would more than Rally them to make opposition votes Those Two are the ones I thought did the best against Biden in 2020 Warren and Bernie are just too f***ing old No one takes Corey Booker seriously - (feeling that he maybe closetted gay does not help) I may not be talking the right talk but the time for soft convo and half measures is over Honestly. The candidates views at this point won't matter They have to just be attractive someone articulate able to sling some zingers back at Trump and not get flustered Rocket River
The pro life folks didn't gradually stop making Roe a big issue ever. It didn't die down. The pro choice people won't either. This is especially true as Republicans in red states pass more and more restrictive bans. The Democrats can and should keep reminding people. If Trump wins there is a likelyhood that two justices will retire and two younger Trump appointed judges will replace them. Nobody knows for sure how strong the issue will be, but I have seen zero reason to believe it is lessening.
Trump's VP pick will depend on what Biden does. If Biden stays, Trump may be emboldened enough to go with Vance. If Biden drops, then we'll probably get a Rubio type.
Classic post stating things I never said. I never said it would be "forgotten over time" I said it wouldn't electrify voters in future elections as much as it did in the immediate aftermath of the decision.
Yes Republicans have run a smear campaign against Harris but they will against any prominent Democrat. That's one reason why I found it so amusing all of the attacks made towards Fetterman but then all of a sudden when those on the Right realize he is strong on Israel suddenly turning a 180. I'm not a Harris fan because I find her style overly calculating and fake. While every person running for high office is ambitious she comes off as off putting how nakedly ambitious she is. That said I think she's capable and agree with her on several positions. Replacing a nominee this late in the process is difficult and there are a lot of good reasons to just hand it to Harris but if Biden steps down I would hope there is at least some contest and my expectation is there will be. I don't think all Democrats will just simply accept Harris and there are other very ambitious Democrats who will see their opportunity.
Several Republicans including Lindsey Graham have put forward proposals for national abortion restrictions. Trump himself has been all over the place. Both claiming it should be left to the states while also claiming credit for ending abortion.
Potential to be. We don't know how things will play out in that regard and It's a major, major lift. All the time, effort and expense that's went into the pro-life movement post Roe vs. Wade was staggering. Will we see that with the pro-choice movement? I have my doubts. The first hurdle would be the lack of institutional basis or frame work to operate from. The pro-life movement was largely church driven. This gave the pro-life movement already assembled communities of like minded people, places to meet and organize, institutions with vast resources (the Catholic church and other churches), a very strong conviction associated with their actions and much more. I don't see anything like that for the pro-choice movement.
Will the pro-choice people develop the apparatus the pro-life movement did? Do you realize how much time, effort and expense went into what the pro-life movement became? Maybe the pro-choice movement does but there's a number of very good reasons to doubt that. Abortion is still widely accessible to 1/2 of the country, most pro-lifers were driven by firm religious conviction, the pro-life movement had massive wealthy institutions [like churches] with like minded people which helped fund, organize and bring pro-life people together. There is no robust pro-life movement without those institutions and I don't see an obvious pro-choice substitute.
Well yes we don't know the future for certain but I think you're downplaying how serious and compelling of an issue this is. Long before Roe happened abortions were happening. It was a decades long movement the other way that got abortion legalized in the first place. While there are churches that formed an institutional basis for the Pro-Life side there is still and always has been a large demand for abortion. That is why even in countries like Ireland where the Catholic Church is much stronger than the US even there abortion was legalized. The only way I see this not being an issue is if most states end up with legal abortions with restrictions that weren't much different than pre-Dobbs. Given that several states are going the other way with legislation I don't see that happening.
If Biden is replaced, the candidate will likely be decades younger. They should definitely make Trump's age and cognitive decline an issue.
I was reading up on the finances and on Harris could use the money that has been donated to the Biden Harris ticket, they would have to refund it and hope they used to back the new nominee
Trump pretty recently took credit for ending abortion even as he says he wants to leave it to the states. Consistency isn't his strength and the Republican party is far from agreement on just leaving it to the states.
