On the fence, this could go either way. It doesn't help that one big constraint is that he's kinda entering a make or break year, and the Rockets aren't quite structured in a way that they can just go full Cade Cunningham / Kemba Walker and believe him even if he hasn't quite proved it yet and hope for the best. Also, given his draft slot and how strong of flashes he's shown, it's also unlikely that Jalen and his camp would be willing to take a discount to the degree that would make the team feel good about taking him on for 3-4 more years without fully proving it. (his full max would be roughly 40m a year next contract, if he still is in this range after next season I would think the only way the Rockets could be ok with keeping him is if he takes a contract more in the 20-25m per range or less.) But obviously, his flashes have been so extreme that it's hard to just give up on. Also, I thought his overall process last year was actually pretty good, it was mostly about ball not going in, and a lot of it were pretty easy bunnies where he did get good separation or wide open 3s. For the positive side of the ledger, synergy actually has his defense as well above average for his position (70-75% tile in both iso and pick and roll defense.) and seems to correlate fine with the eye test and result test, (i.e if he's one of your worse defender your team is probably pretty good on defense.) But ultimately, his mold is a bucket-getter, and the ball obviously needs to go into the hoop, if that part doesn't get to at least reasonable it's hard to justify playing him as a higher usage starter. He needs to get his True shooting to at least close to league average (especially from 3.) he was the worst starter and heck worse guy that played real consistent minutes player on the team last year on that, and he took the most shots. if he gets it more to like 98 TS+ or something then we're good
Appeal, marketability, or aura can be second order factors when you have two players who are equally good, and the thing is no one cares really. A team will only be a laughing stock for any serious fan if they push a worse player just because they are more marketable. I'd call it a separate dimension rather that takes care of itself through market forces and opportunities in terms of sponsorships, collabs, etc. Kind of weird to conflate the two. Now I feel there's some truth to this - I would not call it maturity necessarily personally, but unless you have extreme natural latent I think it takes an obsessive mindset to be like top 10 - 20 in the sport. I see that in Amen for example, or maybe Cam just flat out looks mad ambitious and driven no matter what it is. SGA is another example. Of course I don't know them at all, so feel free to call bullshit on this, but I sense that JG and Sengun are more outgoing folks on the other hand. I don't like to call this maturity because I feel it denies people agency - it's possible that what a player wants out of this isn't necessarily being a top 10 - 15 guy, but to have a more balanced on/off-work life where they don't spend their every waking hour thinking about basketball or on the court practicing, and that's fine. I know that's the game itself, but we project our own fantasies way too much on players - let's be real here, no one makes decisions based on what we write in this forum, so maybe it's best to just let the guys hoop and see where things land.
He has very high highs and very low lows, overall very inconsistent and 1 more year with Udoka should be sufficient to determine his place on this team or in the league. It all hinges on whether he can maintain even 70% of his best stretch last season. What you are looking for is that 15 game or 1 month stretch that he had where he pretty much was playing like the top 10 player in the league, with little to no bad games. If we pull this out to the last quarter of this season, where he had more bad games integrated, we are looking at the below, with a respectable TS 57.6% and 2.7 TOV per game and 45/37/81 overall and +/- 4.7. It remains to be seen how much of last season will carry over this season, but if he can average his last 25 games across the whole season with similar or better efficiency percentages, then you would probably be much more comfortable extending him, or using him as a core trade piece for a superstar.
I’m probably one of the most vocal Jalen Green fans on the site, but I voted for “somewhat optimistic” just because objectively I haven’t seen overwhelming evidence that he’s going to be a true star in this league yet. That said, I am confident that he WILL become a star and there are games where he literally seems like the next big thing in the league…something that I hope he plays like that with a lot more regularity this season!
I don't think they're giving him the whole season to prove himself. He does it before the deadline or he's gone imo. The only way he makes it to a big extension is if he has a stellar season. We're talking 25+ ppg on significantly higher TS%/3PT%, 5-6 assists and consistent effort on defense. I'm sure the staff have made him very aware of what's expected of him. Not to mention it's his final opportunity for a big contract. Playing for his first big contract should be added motivation. Would be great for our future. Two stars in the bag with 5 more attempts coming lol that's amazing.
I'm on the fence. Less optimistic than I was a year ago. It kind of does make sense that he struggled considering that it was his first year in a professional setting. Silas-KPJ ball, G-league bubble ain't it. All those babies did not help. Still his play was utterly pathetic for the majority of the season. This year no more excuses. If there are still doubts around trade deadline, I hope he will raise false hopes of some other fanbase witch his magical March.
Here is the thing that annoys me about this take. If Mobley was the pick, it changes everything else afterwards for future picks. Because Mobley and Alperen would not have projected to work together on offense then, and still wouldn't now given their development. Do the Rockets even do that trade now? Would they still have protected Detroit and Washington picks that have not conveyed and may not convey until 2027 for Det and possibly never for Wash. Then the next year, you still need an guard/wing offensive creator on the team, which means they would have probably passed on Jabari. Because while Jabari and Mobley could work on the same offense, neither can be an offensive creator. That also means one of them is probably playing SF full time, and that may not be ideal against teams with quicker guys at the position. Does that mean they take a chance at Jayden Ivey? Do they try to package picks to move up for Chet? Trade down for J Dub? Is the Tari pick gone due to those decisions? Also does that mean KPJ has even more full reins on the team under Silas? Does that cause an even worse situation for Mobley to grow and learn from? These decisions are not performed in a vacuum. You cannot just change the Mobley/Jalen pick and have the rest of the team be the same. Plus Mobley is a good player, but he doesn't appear to be challenging for all nba 1st or 2nd teams anytime soon. He will get on some more all defensive teams sure, but there are a lot of those guys in the league. He is not a player who can lead a team to the play in. Neither is Scottie Barnes, so let's stop harping on the gamble they opted for in Jalen Green.
LMAO, people still banging on about Mobley's mediocre ass. I'm sure people would've been super excited about his struggling to break 15 points in a game and thoroughly average numbers with the #2 pick. ****, KPJ showed more star power than Mobley.
Why would I? I'm a Rockets fan.... if Jalen Green miraculously turned into a good player that would be a good thing. My only issue with him is that he's a terrible basketball player. Jalen fans would hopefully leave with their guy because they are fans of the player more so than fans of the team.
Most of Jalen’s production at the end of last season came against the worst teams in the league, and he actually finished the season shooting poorly. I’ve never seen a player get so much credit for so little performance. I’m disappointed we haven’t done what OKC did with Giddy and moved on. 3pt% game log to finish the yr: 0% 18% 37% 22% 28% 22% 20% 50% 30% (final game) He didn’t even finish the season strong. I wish people would stop saying that. It’s not true.
As a optimist in general, I chose "somewhat optimistic". Jalen has tremendous athletic ability, but with Amen and Cam it might be the 3rd best on our team (although there is an argument to be made that only Amen stands above JG). Jalen's wow plays make me pause and think this guy could really be special, but then he'll do something that confirms he really hasn't gotten it yet. While Jalen was given the keys to the franchise (w/ Porter) when Silas was here, I think that hurt his development more in some ways than the suppression of Alpi. I saw Jalen make strides last year under Ime/staff and that's the reason for my choice. Can he continue to bring more control and consistency to his game in Year 4? Did he focus on his craft this offseason? Is his shot more consistent? Are his handles tighter? Did he get stronger? Did he work on defense-related techniques/training? It's encouraging to hear he's been working with Amen and Cam. I'm hopeful that the tough love Ime offers will further benefit him and he'll become the kind of SG some of us believe possible. If he doesn't or shows diva tendencies then I think we move him at the deadline for future draft capital.
I don’t blame Stone for picking Jalen over Mobley. I do blame him for the disastrous first two years of Jalen’s development. And it’s unfortunate that after 3-yrs Stone apparently still doesn't know what he has in Jalen.
Possibly because the team would have been better than with the draft bust acting as a tank commander. It would mean we wouldn't get all of those top 4 picks year after year leading to a worse team in the long run.
I am OPTIMISTIC. And shall remain same until PROVEN otherwise. I don’t ‘want’ to pay the man the max; I hope he proves worth the max. It ain’t up to me It be up to he
Well if JG4 sucks next year, will the Rockets need to package FRPs to get another team to eat his salary and send back roster filler on short term contracts? A way for the Rockets to get value for JG4 is if JG4 only partially sucks and Cam outplays him. The Rockets could say that there are trading JG4 as a favor so that he can get starters minutes. The Rockets then could wait for a quality trade offer.
No, if he's still awful at basketball next season, they'll just let him walk in RFA and get nothing for him but lose nothing dumping him. I'm not sure he has much trade value even right now, so I think there's very little chance the Rockets get anything of value trading him at the deadline if he's still the same player he's been for 3 years. Essentially the moment the season starts, it's either he miraculously turns into a better player and the Rockets keep him, or the Rockets let him walk for nothing.
