All this makes the coming season important psychologically. If the team culture is strong and there is a clear avenue to deep playoff success, it might create an incentive for maybe a little hometown discount. Given players and agents, I know that is a slim possibility, but if it is ever going to happen, it will be with a bunch of good young players who want to stay together.
Personally.. I would hedge Dillon's contract & a 2027 HOU FRP (top 3 protected) to ORL for Isaac. Isaac seems redundant with Smith & Eason and is injury prone. OTOH I think he would be reasonable about his next contract and is looking to start to earn that $$$ (bench player for ORL RN). Plus I think the chance he becomes a "star" is better than relying on Dillon IMHO. Why would Orlando who just made the playoffs and has plenty of cap entertain this? Isaac wants to start so as to earn that cheddar and Magic could use some more assets while they hunt for a "star" starting PG or SG (looking at you Klay Thompson & Zach Levine). Plus Dillon might accept a bench role on thie Magic. I think if we can lock a player like Jalen Smith into a 4 year deal with almost all of the NT-MLE this year that would be a great get for the next few years. (Gotta give him about 18 - 20 mins per game b/c Pacers didn't play him - esp. in playoffs,) I also believe starters should be around 30ish minutes per game with the backups getting about 18 minutes. (Obvi not set in Stone & depends on matchups, production, etc.) This should help keep players fresh and let the young backups develop their skills. Adding Isaac to our current roster coupled with health (knock on wood) and I think we have the groundwork for a second round WCP team this year with a championship caliber roster next year with a few tweaks. I see a core of Amen - Thrilla - Isaac - Bari - Sengawd - Shep - Cam - Tari - Jalen Smith + 2025 pick for a couple of years. In 2026 - 2027 we began to churn by losing 1 of that group replaced by a younger and cheaper player who can be developed.
Yes, it's only doable because all the players are young, no one will get the 30%, and the Cap is predicted to grow at 10%. Hence, probably why Stone seems confident he can do it, if they all perform well. I'm pretty confident in the elite role-player contracts I gave out considering they are playing with 3 max players, so their ppg numbers are held down, and their motivation to stay and compete is high. I would love it if you'd take a look over my numbers in DM. I don't really want to do it in this thread, bc it will be fuel for the internets arguing rather than a exercise in seeing if what Stone said is true/possible. but a 1x1 conversation would be cool.
Absolutely right that forward-looking cap management will be the focus of our FO this summer and for the next few years. However, I think there's a little too much pessimism here about keeping core players together, and our ability to control costs. This FO has already been doing the work to create meaningful structural negotiating leverage with our young players. What do you think has been the primary purpose of the following: - Having a cap space "plan" for summer 2025 - Refusing to anoint any young player as a definite building block - Maintaining rumors of trading for a star, making every young player potentially expendable It's not to get an external star. That's Plan B. The FO has told us that Plan A is the young core. All this stuff works to maximize leverage in extension negotiations with Sengun and Jalen, then Jabari and Tari next summer. Us having cap space in 2025 and potential plans to use it, along with the FO's stated belief that every player is potentially expendable means no young player can feel entitled to a max or an early extension (as guys like Scottie Barnes, Cade, Quickley etc. are because their teams have no believable alternatives), and our players will have to compromise on their expectations if they want early financial security. The Sengun and Jalen extensions are absolutely crucial - they set the internal bar for future extension classes. If Sengun extends for ~22% of the cap... that's a high measuring stick for future negotiations. An absolutely believable scenario this summer is Sengun and Jalen coming to the table seeking financial security, and signing extensions like: - Sengun - 5 yrs, $200M w/ incentives ($175M in base salary), first year peak salary then flat salary structure - Jalen - 5 yrs, $175M w/ incentives ($150M in base salary), first year peak salary then flat salary structure Combined those two contracts would be only 27% of the cap in year 5. This type of outcome is what I think the FO has been low key working towards for a while now. If Sengun and Jalen don't come to the table than we roll through to restricted free agency and cap space next summer. If they do, it would be a slam dunk for us -- giving us a clear path to keeping a full team together of drafted players through 2030.
Except with the new Apron in the picture, it will be harder to move overvalued contracts than it's been in the past.
I don't feel you can compare players because each had different levels of invoming experience, they are put in different situations and they progress to different levels and at different rates. Aa I said, superstars tend to make a jump to greatness at somepoint in their career. You can't neccessarily say that just because two players had comparable output early that they will end up in the same place. 99% of all players never make it to the superstar level.the popular comparision for Sengun is Jokic, but there's only been one player in the history of the sport to develop into what the Joker has become. Assuming that Sengun is going to do the same and is a longshot. He's going to be very good, but there's no guarentee that he will be a superstar. Currently Segun isn't elite at any single thing. He's pretty good at some things, but not elite at any. Most superstars tend to be elite in multiple areas. If there was an easy predictor on who would definitely develop into superstars, then teams wouldn't miss on players. Unfortunately, it's not that easy. As for JJ Redick, I don't pay attention to much that he says. He's said plenty of outragous and stupid thigs on his podcast to get attention. Look no further than his "plumbers and fitefighters" comment. It's also not fair to say that he hasn't improved in 3 years. He's learned how to change speeds when driving and his rebounding, passing and defense have all improved. Udoka has said so on multiple occasions.
But will they want to stay together? Is a guy like Cam Whitmore going to want to keep coming off the bench or would he rather go somewhere and possibly be the man?
This is the most surprising thing, especially to have it kick in at the first level. This seems like it basically bans the practice of vets taking a buyout to sign on with a championship contender at the vet minimum or some other low salary.
Honestly, from a contract perspective, the Rockets have more to worry about with FVV and Brooks than the young guys. FVV is one of our best players, are we really ready to dump him or will he agree to a longer term deal on a smaller contract? Do we just keep Brooks or find a way to move him for a future asset? He's been fine but there are young players ready take his minutes. It will be hard to move him if all the young guys legitimately earn his minutes. For the young guys: I'd expect us to wait for RFA for Sengun/Jalen for free agency flexibility. But, I'd expect Sengun to get a 4 yr max offer sheet on the first day. But, he may not sign it right away if the Rockets say they'll give him 5 years. Jalen won't get that but maybe a 3 yr offer with a cost higher than the Rockets are willing to accept. I think it's entirely possible Jalen is gone in RFA. Then it could be a shrewd move to extend Tari/Jabari on good role player contracts. Big forwards that can hit open 3s and defend multiple positions are rare. We'll need to see more from Amen/Cam/Reed to know where they fit for extensions. But, if one or more start looking like legit max players Stone will be the happiest GM. You're not going to hear an executive say "we have too many young stars".
The way I look at it, there are 30 NBA teams. Each of them will have players with max contracts, at least one. So there will be at least 30 players with max contracts. As far as I can tell, there were 48 players with max contracts last season (I asked ChatGPT, so forgive me if that list isn't 100 % accurate). Two questions - how many of these 48 do you think are overpaid? And whom would you give a max contract to instead of Sengun today, when building a team at the stage we are at? Here are the 48 NBA players with max contracts for the 2023-2024 season (I know several of them have changed teams during the season): Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors) Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets) LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers) Bradley Beal (Phoenix Suns) Kevin Durant (Phoenix Suns) Paul George (Los Angeles Clippers) Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers) Kawhi Leonard (Los Angeles Clippers) Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat) Klay Thompson (Golden State Warriors) Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves) Fred VanVleet (Houston Rockets) Anthony Davis (Los Angeles Lakers) Luka Dončić (Dallas Mavericks) Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks) Zach LaVine (Chicago Bulls) Tobias Harris (Philadelphia 76ers) Pascal Siakam (Toronto Raptors) Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves) Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans) Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers) Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics) Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics) Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat) De'Aaron Fox (Sacramento Kings) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) Brandon Ingram (New Orleans Pelicans) Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) Kristaps Porziņģis (Boston Celtics) Ben Simmons (Brooklyn Nets) CJ McCollum (New Orleans Pelicans) DeMar DeRozan (Chicago Bulls) Julius Randle (New York Knicks) Khris Middleton (Milwaukee Bucks) Jrue Holiday (Boston Celtics) Michael Porter Jr. (Denver Nuggets) Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves) Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies) Domantas Sabonis (Sacramento Kings) Jerami Grant (Portland Trail Blazers) Lauri Markkanen (Utah Jazz) Mikal Bridges (Brooklyn Nets) RJ Barrett (New York Knicks) The youngest player among them is Zion Williamson, born on July 6, 2000, making him 23 years old during the 2023-2024 NBA season If I am building a team today, I want to build around young players who still have that superstar potential. I don't want to commit much of my cap to old has-beens like Lebron, Jimmy Butler, Lillard, Durant, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, etc., no matter how great they once were. I bolded the only players in that list I would give a max to ahead of Sengun, as of today, when building a team. Booker already quite questionable. I think I would prefer building around Sengun to building around Booker. Outside of this list, I see Edwards and Wembanyama. Not really anyone else. I am excluding Ja Morant because of his off-court issues, Zion because of his motivation issues, and several players because of age (Curry, Lebron, etc.). Several of them should simply never have been max players, in my opinion (Randle, Middleton, Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, Mikal Bridges, RJ Barrett, Zach LaVine, etc. etc.). I simply don't buy the argument that teams would want to build around Sengun less than around Jerami Grant, Mikal Bridges, RJ Barrett, etc. This arbitrary "superstar" threshold as an argument to not max out Sengun does not convince me. Yes, Lebron is a superstar, but I would rather give 25 % of the cap to Sengun if I am the Rockets than whatever supermax percentage of the cap Lebron commands. I do understand that we retain more flexibility by doing it at the end of this season, but let me tell you now: If Sengun continues on the trajectory of improvement he has been on, then he will be eligible for the supermax after the end of this season, because he will make it to an All-NBA team.
Found a good article on projected salary cap & apron growth https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryant...e-poised-to-send-the-salary-cap-skyrocketing/ Could not imbed the chart
Yes. i would extend Sengun right now to the rookie max. If he makes an all-nba team you are screwed. At the lower price he is tradeable (although that’s not what I would want) if he doesn’t do great. Starting NBA centers make lots of money after their rookie contracts.
This isn’t directed at you, but I swear a lot of the extension discussion on here and on twitter involves people not internalizing that we are negotiating against Sengun and Jalen. Like some people are rooting for Sengun to get money more than they are rooting the Rockets to save money / have financial flexibility. It’s not a win-win situation. It’s zero sum. The Rockets expect Sengun and Jalen to be somewhat disgruntled by how this goes. Sengun or Jalen’s alternative is risk it all and wait a year to try to get a maximum $167M/4 offer sheet next summer. Making All NBA doesn’t change that max, no other team can give them a designated rookie extension. They can either take that risk or sign reasonable extensions well below the max (but for more money than they’d get in RFA) now. This is the brute cost control that restricted free agency provides. A lot of teams don’t really use it because they are not in the same situation of abundance that we are, with players who have not quite established themselves as stars. There is 0.00% chance anybody gets a max extension from us this summer.
