The 2nd Tax Apron is looming for the NBA

Great post as usual @aelliott.

But we do have that future superstar on the roster.

His name is Sengun. Alperen Sengun.

 

From what I’m reading. Phoenix has to make a move to get rid of Durant, Booker, or Beal before the 2nd Apron rules kick in this year. Is that opening day? If they don’t then they have to go with their current core for the next two years until durants contract runs out. The rockets aren’t really a good trade partner for Durant, because FVV would almost certainly have to be part of the deal and the suns already have Booker and Beal, also the rockets would be forced to start amen or Sheppard at pg. I don’t see how they don’t just play it back for the next 2 years.

 

@aelliott is ClutchFans' franchise player.

 

Whom do you currently consider a superstar - or future superstar?

I would say Jokic, Giannis, Embiid, Doncic.

Except Doncic, they are around 30.

Then there are some young guys who could get there.

I see Edwards, SGA, maybe Booker, maybe Wembanyama. I see Sengun in that category.

 

I just don’t want to pay him. Not ready to give Jalen a quarter of our cap space, but someone else might so I’d rather recoup some value and move on.

 

-If a team exceeds the 2nd apron in 3 out of 5 years, then their first round pick is moved to the end of the 1st round regardless of record.

Is this only for picks that they keep? Asking for a friend...

 

What I find most fascinating about this is how it will affect trade values. Most certainly teams will be motivated to move star players to get under, at least, the second apron at some point. However, teams will be more apprehensive about adding max salary. So if, for example, the Pelicans decide they need to move on from Zion Williamson, what is his trade value? In past years, despite his health concerns, he would get a huge haul. See a much older and equally injury prone Bradley Beal. But what about now? Do teams even want to risk taking on that kind of salary for a player who is dominant when healthy but who is often injured? If they do decide to commit to that risk, are they willing to give up the same kind of assets? Draft picks become even more valuable because they enable you to bring in rotation players on cheap rookie scale deals. So are you still willing to give up a Mikal Bridges type haul for a Mikal Bridges caliber player in that case? I kind of doubt it.

I'm wondering if the Rockets can add a star to this team in the near future for much less than we anticipated giving up. Because if the demand around the league shrinks due to salary constraints, so does the price tag. It definitely also means the Rockets have to be far more cautious about the player they trade for. If we stick to the Zion example above, you can see the risk of a team ending up with a player who plays less and less games and becomes less and less effective in the games he does play (of course, he could also go the Steph Curry route and figure out how to stay healthy and then proceed to rattle off a half a dozen dominant seasons). It's going to be fun to see how this all plays out.

Great post @aeelliott. You've always been one of my favorite posters.

 

Quality post @aelliot

Sure seems like they've taken aim at star players forcing trades, setting up superteams, burning down assets, etc. A homegrown star, smart moves in free agency and using assets wisely seem like more impactful ways to operate than just hoping stars choose you. You can still get to a level like the Celtics but it started with homegrown picks, smart moves around the margins and timely pickups for role players. And it's still going to cost a boatload. It just isn't as easy as having a couple guys say "how's Miami this time of year?"

 

I understand that but even then it'll just be 25% of the cap. Less anually than FVVs current deal. It'll be bad but not completely debilitating and can easily be traded. Once we start giving extentions, it doesn't really matter that much if it's 2 or 5 because we'll already be operating over the cap. If the player isn't really worth the money it's possible to trade that contract for multiple smaller contracts. But once you're operating over the cap, you have to keep going deeper and deeper until you approach that apron.

 

zero disagreement from me. OTOH (assuming he is rostered 11/1) I WANT him to become worth the investment.

I do wonder if someone out there, Wiz? Hornets, Utes? might throw a worthwhile offer in this direction to bring him to their destination???

 

This is a crunch that is coming, and why the Rockets will be looking to trade if they don't believe anyone is a max player, rather than paying them as one.

If they don't think Jalen is a max player, they will move him, same for Alpi.....until they settle on whom is a max player...

This is way harder than drafting - choosing whom you believe to be the FUTURE superstar, you get it wrong and trade that person away, it costs your job as GM.

Stone has his career on the line in these next 2+ years to get it right.

DD

 

NBA club pays a lot of money to their players. And if they pay too much money, the have to pay more money.

well that’s what I understood.

*ribet banget ye aturannya

 

Why do you think there's no way of knowing that?

The new head coach of the LA Lakers disagrees with you.



I do think there is a way of projecting players' future performance, and it has to do with the trajectory of improvement they have shown.

I won't go into all the detail, but there is more on that here:



To keep it really simple, Jalen basically stayed flat from year 1 to year 3, while Alpi has shown marked improvement from year 1 to year 3, at a slightly younger age.

 

Don’t sell yourself short, @aelliott. You’ve taught me a thing or two over the years!