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Moody: Trump win - higher inflation, 2025 recession

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Amiga, Jun 24, 2024.

  1. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Member
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    I doubt anyone lies as much as Trump. His supporters just repeat his lies. The mad red hatters are too foolish to realize they've been conned by both Trump.
     
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  2. juicystream

    juicystream Member

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    Certainly possible. There are always reasons to be concerned. But I know inflation and a crapload more debt is coming if Trump's policies happen.
     
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  3. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Seven days after inauguration, Trump signed an executive order to ban immigration (the 'Muslim ban'). His tax cut for the wealthy was also a priority—he signed that about one year after inauguration. I think you would see a repeat of that, and it will be a god-awful mess given how ready Trump's transition team is to take massive and unprecedented actions from day one that will be legally challenged. Project 2025, also Trump's transition plan, aims to halt legal immigration (in addition to the 10-15 million mass deportations Trump speaks of almost daily). I think you'll see it in his first year, if not within a few months. Successful or not due to legal and other challenges, it will have an immediate short-term impact (legal immigrants will just wait and see what the legal fallout will be) and, if successful, a huge long-term devastating impact on the economy.

    Trump will be much more successful in executing his agenda, or Project 2025, in a second term. The impact on immigration alone will cause widespread inflation and slow down the economy.

    Detail analysis on how Project 2025 decimate legal immigraiton

    An obsession at a cost
    In its totality, the Mandate aims to demolish the American immigration system, coerce states and localities into cooperating with administrative schemes, and intimidate immigrants present in the United States. Its plot spans nearly every federal government level and expands executive control beyond the current confines of our checks and balances system. It will knock down statutorily authorized programs through ingenuitive program impediments and create new inefficiencies and barriers that will bulldoze over Congressional intent.

    The far-right has a political obsession with immigration. While they wield it as a rallying cry and a scapegoat, the recommendations outlined in the Mandate are incongruent with the “safety” and “security” talking points. If implemented, the Mandate would pursue the destruction of programs and laws made to promote public safety. It would disadvantage our economy as competitor nations scoop up the top talent the U.S. abandons. It would block millions of Americans from higher education and foster a society that is inherently less safe and offers fewer opportunities. The Mandate’s suggestions are theoretical for now, but as we march towards the November elections and a potential Trump second-term, the threat of their enactment is very real.
     
    #23 Amiga, Jun 24, 2024
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2024
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  4. Rileydog

    Rileydog Member

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    @StroudAndYorDaddy will not believe these facts. No, these are all just more Biden lies.
     
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  5. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    The link is not working. Enumerating Trump's campaign promises would be helpful in the greater debate if accurate...

    Biden was seen as playing catchup because of his promises to undo Trump policies. Putting Kamala at the helm was setting her up for failure as Biden shouldve been fully aware of executive limitations during the Obama Admin (DACA...)

    I'm not playing dumb that Donny will curb legal immigration as I had plenty of coworkers feeling the vise 6 years ago despite being highly paid and highly educated workers, but that's the platform he's banking on and it would be more productive on why Trump is promoting a "ruinous" economic policy with Biden reacting to it by "cutting off" asylum processing after a quota has been met.

    Biden's recent move was a desperate pivot with the immigration bill failure...like he sat on his butt for 4 years with Kamala at the immigration helm. The failure through prez inaction/veep incompetence worked as Congress finally acted when they believed the president wouldn't bail their cowardice out with dubiously legal Executive Orders...well it would've if Citizen Donny didn't pull off a moblike hit n run.

    The other issue with these numbers are they're wildly skewed predictions. The Jun Economist's springboard topic is American immigration and while it confirms our growth trajectory is largely correlated with an influx of cheap labor, future impacts such as when the immigrants enter the welfare system are largely unaccounted. While we want Good Immigrants like my coworkers who not only pay for themselves and then some, a lot of the back breaking labor is delegated to our Second Class Citizens with them even adding several billions into Social Security through fake/stolen SS numbers. Our holding pattern is that they don't exist, therefore do not collect any benefits, though realistically it runs off into stressing ERs and non-profit hospitals if their families are too poor to take the brunt of healthcare and aging costs.

    So it's a bit of typical liberal thinktank bait and switch to paint purely rosey numbers for unfettered illegal immigration where the logical contortion (rationalization) is Economix...Absolute GOOD, but Social Impacts... Chaotic BAD, therefore harsh curbing of immigration = Border line RACIST


    Finally, I see the need for a scalable or enforceable border policy over time because even if we need more labor to offset productivity deficits in birth and retirement rates, Climate Migration is here to stay and will influence border discourse as soon as the first bullet is fired over water rights.

    What use is it to suggest or decree quotas when you can't even properly and quantifiably enforce them in the first place? Or let's just wing it because the idea of true enforcement is too hard or too expensive.

    Decriminalization works all the time since no one can or care to count.

    Some progressive groups are pissed that Biden called for the quotas despite the 3 spoonfuls of sugar elsewhere in his recent EOs, so Dems will have that working against them when appealing to voters concerned about unfettered immigration
     
    #25 Invisible Fan, Jun 25, 2024
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2024
  6. raining threes

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    What is Trump's economic plan

    Go to the grocery store, pay your light, gas bill, try to buy a house. That's Biden s economic plan.

    That and EV's that people don't want an the power grid can't handle the EV's charging.

    Open borders?
     
  7. raining threes

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    Take a trip to buy groceries and get back with us on Bidenomics.
     
  8. astros123

    astros123 Member

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    Yeah trumps plan of imposing a 10% universal tariff on every import will surely help the price of groceries. You MAGA are dumb as ****

    Do you think America is the only country in the world that saw groceries go up. You morons are the dumbest of the dumbest humans on planet earth. Go back to foxnews
     
  9. raining threes

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    I know what prices were at the store when Trump was POTUS and had tariffs in place on Chia, Mexico etc...that Biden reminded vs what the prices are today.

    I don't care about the rest of the world economy. BTW, look at how things were when Trump was POTUS vs how they are now. War, open borders, inflation etc... yeah I'm the dumbass.But give me that way of life again.

    Hey I noticed you can spell Astros and count to three, so you're smarter than the avg Biden voter. Look at what's in front of your face. Biden has dementia
     
    #29 raining threes, Jun 25, 2024
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2024
  10. astros123

    astros123 Member

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    You morons always do this same garbage where you compare the economy pre covid as if covid never happened under trump. When trump left office we had over 6% unemployment rate and job hiring was less than 60k a month. Also Trump never had universal tariffs during his first term but he's promising them on day 1 of his administration. You're a loser

    "I don't care if the entire world also saw similar inflation I blame biden cuz I'm a illiterate moron who gets my news from foxnews"

    Well thank you i understand now
     
  11. raining threes

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    Blame everything on COVID, excuse maker.

    Truth is inflation was caused by Bidenomics flooding the market with COVID cash. You're kidding yourself if you don't think Trump can rebuild the economy back like it was before. Of course you probably don't understand the capitalist phrase of succeeding to the best of your ability. You want everybody to suffer the same. BTW, Biden has had plenty of time to rebuild the economy, but this is really easy to understand, Biden doesn't believe in American exceptionalism.. Also calling people names where I grew up not only shows a lack of intelligence, but it also was likely to get you a good azz kicking.
     
  12. Xopher

    Xopher Member

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    I don't think Trunp will do a mass deportation. I don't think his billionaire buddies will let him get rid of the cheap labor.
     
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  13. Xopher

    Xopher Member

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    The funny thing is you actually believe this. Trump flooded the economy too. Let me ask you a question and see if you can follow actual logic. When did the vaccine start getting into arms? When did people start going back to work and out to eat? Then look at that and tell me when inflation took off. Now explain to me how supply chains being broken when the world opened up did not cause inflation. Now explain how the rest of the world had higher inflation than we did. Furthermore, if you knew anything about economics, it takes more than a few months after putting cash in the economy to see a spike in inflation like we did. Flooding the market with people going to work, buying gas, etc. does not take nearly as long to spike inflation.

    The greatest cause of inflation was the vaccine
     
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  14. astros123

    astros123 Member

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    You don't get it. Stephen Miller will be head of homeland security. He will go on a revenge tour and go after everyone. Read up on project 2025.

    Trump doesn't need his billionaire buddies once he wins. You folks don't grasp trump after all these years
     
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  15. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    You are a bit slow on the draw so name calling you should be frowned upon.
     
  16. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member

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    I definitely hope that Trump is pressed on his economic plans in the debates. Most people just talk about inflation was low during Trump’s term without understanding that Trump lucked into that. Trumps economic plan then didn’t address inflation and his current plan would likely add to inflation.
     
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  17. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Trump has stated a few things in various formats. He has stated he plans to:
    • Implement a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports (not just from China, but from everyone) with a 4-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods.
    • He was not able to pass infrastructure legislation, but he has not stated he will roll back infrastructures under Biden.
      • He has not said he would roll back Biden's critical advanced chip manufacturing in the US.
    • Cut the corporate tax rate (stated this when he met with 100 corporate leaders from Tim Cook of Apple to Doug McMillon of Walmart).
    • Extend his TCJA tax cut that is expiring in 2025.
      • The corporate tax rate cut from 35% to 21% does not expire, as that was permanent.
      • The tax cut for workers is expiring, which has an average saving of ~50k for those making over 1M, ~15k for those making between 400k and 1M, and ~$100 for low-income earners.
    • Deport 10-15M illegal immigrants and drastically reduce legal immigration (impacting the economy by drastically reducing the labor force).
    Biden's economy:

    • No across-the-board tariff on all imports, but strategic tariffs on classes of imports, mostly from China.
    • Infrastructure (already passed and ongoing).
      • Critical advanced chip manufacturing in the US.
    • Does not cut the corporate tax rate.
    • Extend portions of the TCJA that are expiring in 2025.
      • Extend tax breaks for those making less than 400k.
    According to Moody, these differences mean that prices will increase faster under Trump than under Biden, the economy will slow down and likely enter a recession under Trump in 2025, there will be a larger national debt under Trump, and higher unemployment under Trump.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Link updated. Here is the correct link: https://www.niskanencenter.org/proj...-demolish-immigration-in-a-second-trump-term/
     
  19. Rileydog

    Rileydog Member

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    You must have skipped the content of what I posted about. It was data on crime.

    But let’s be real. You believe that Biden did worse on the economy than Trump would have done, and no amount of data or explaining will convince you otherwise.
     
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  20. adoo

    adoo Member

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    you're wrong. the seed for inflation was planted by Trump's ill-conceived tariff war; it caused many global supply chain bottenecks, increasing the cost of goods for consumers.

    Russia invasion of Ukraine also put a squeeze on critical commodities---energy and food
    Trump has been the only POTUS in modern US history to have generated a net loss in job creation.
    Trump's 2016 campaign pledged a $100B commitment to rebuild the dilapidated infrastructure;
    during his presidency, beyond just announcing infrastructure week on 8 different occasions, nothing got done, not even a plan.

    is this the economy you want to go back to?
     
    #40 adoo, Jun 25, 2024
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2024
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