Poole: -1.9 on/off team offensive efficiency 35th percentile https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4599/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Paolo: -4.1 on/off team offensive efficiency 12th Percentile https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5090/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Kuzma: -.2 on/off.... 51st percentile https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4230/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Cade: +2.7 on/off 74th percentile https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4864/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Clarkson: +.1 on/off 51st percentile https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/653/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Jalen: +2.4 on/off 72nd percentile https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Keep in mind it's easier to have positive on/off numbers on bad teams. The only team on this list of players that is better is the Magic and not by much. So Green has a disadvantage here as it's harder to elevate yourself with positive on/off impact on a good team with a deep bench which the Rockets have especially on defense. The only guy here with better impact is Cade and he's on the worst roster in the league where his replacements are scrubs. When you see the league praise Paolo even with his scoring efficiency worse than Jalen, why is that? It's because he's young and shows potential. That's why. That benefit of the doubt towards Green from Rocket fans? Near non existent.
#1 - I agree that Jalen should reduce his 3 point attempts. Currently 45% of his shots are from 3. Not because he "sucks" at it, but because he's not a particularly dynamic jump shooter. He is a scorer. He feeds off confidence from shot to shot. He would greatly benefit from taking more shots inside the arc (especially early in games) and preferably inside the restricted area if possible. Problem is that a good portion of the time the paint is clogged. So I find it odd that some guys would want to take out the best weapon in displacing a defense and wrecking opposing assignments to open up the paint touches to begin with in lieu of a player who will make one more shot per game and be labeled a "good shooter". Drop the shot diet down to 40% on 3's and that would reduce his attempts by 66 or so and if he converts even half of those into makes near the rim or free throws all of these fancy stats will look prettier and the efficiency clique could go back to complaining about his nails, girlfriends, tattoos or hairstyle. #2 - I strongly disagree with your "Banchero is overrated" stance.
I'm not too keen on on-off stats overall because it's a little foggy, context matters a lot just like TS and it's more harder to analyze the context compared to it. Also I see that these are the offensive on-off stats. If we consider both offense and defense(differential on cleaningtheglass): Clarkson: -1.4 Poole: -3.3 Cade: +4.5 Vucevic: -2.7 Kuzma: -3.2 Banchero: -9.1 (oof) Green: -3.9 Banchero is getting too much praise because of his team performing well. He does not deserve it.
Buddy. We are discussing Green's impact on offense. If we want to move goal posts and discuss his defensive on/off impact by all means start another side conversion. His defensive impact has been bad but f you want to utilize context, then you can acknowledge that the Rockets have one of the best defensive bench units in the league. Almost everyone that comes off the bench for the Rockets are good to great defenders. Guys like Poole, Kuzma and Cade have absolute dumpster fire replacements inflating their on/off impact. The debate in the past row pages is about Green's scoring efficiency and how the team suffers or doesn't suffer from it. People are making claims that there is no point to his self creation without efficiency. My entire premise or question is why is his impact on team offensive efficiency so high even though he is one of the least efficient scorers in the league? Why is that.
Banchero might turn out to be a star/superstar. His potential is tempting but the numbers and the current performance does not support it. He is on an upward trajectory, so if he gets considerably better next season I'll probably change my mind on him. For Jalen, I accept that clogged paint is somewhat a problem, but he still settled for early 3pters more than needed. You watched the games, too. You know that that's a problem with him. Don't get my stance on Jalen wrong. I think he might turn out fine. I'm not claiming that he won't be a failure 100%. I don't care about his personal life even one bit. I just think that he was very bad last year, we need more from him, and the team shouldn't give him the max. One of my biggest concerns about him is the case he doesn't pan out because he doesn't have the tools to contribute if he is not a star level scorer. He is a scorer, not a shooter, just like you said. He can't be a role player who starts. If he starts, then he has to be a very very good scorer.
opposing defenses relax when green gets to chucking ? all joking aside maybe there’s a correlation with his missed shots and offensive rebounds and we get some easy looks and also all joking aside … this is the only stat that you’ve been referring to that paints green in an above average light . Maybe the other multiple metrics give a better interpretation. even if your premise is right and this is the best stat then shouldn’t his overall on-off being one of the lower performers on the team be a big concern ?
The reason I brought up defense is because splitting on-off into offense and defense doesn't make sense in my opinion. It's situational and it's hard to evaluate what exact thing player brings to the table to lead into that number. It becomes even more foggy if you split it into two different stats.
What stat do you have besides ts% and 3pt percentage? Seriously. The world of basketball isn't just scoring splits. Does Jalen Green collapse defenses often enough where eit causes enough defensive chaos to do things like generate secondary and tertiary assists that generates a relatively more efficient offense compared to when he's not on the court where a player that isn't capable of breaking down half court defenses from the perimeter isn't on the floor? When Jalen Green beats perimeter half court defenses which he does often and by far the most in this roster, that generates defensive chaos. It makes defenders out of position because now they have to help. This might not lead to a direct assist but it is the offensive initiation that eventually swings to a open look that is probably the biggest reason for his on/off impact.
What’s your point in putting that formula up with no explanation on how it’s not a flawed metric? Have you forgotten how poorly Luka shot his first 2 years launching 7-8 threes a game? He wasn’t great last year as well. And terrible in the finals but yet somehow alleged Rocket fans keep giving other players a pass while demonizing our own. You said Cade Cunningham plays on a team with poor spacing. Does this sound familiar? Rockets spacing is terrible and shooting atrocious.
TS% is only a flawed metric if you don't bring up volume, which I did. There aren't any other big downsides to using TS% I noticed, would be glad If you explain more clearly. Luka's TS% was 54.5% in his first season. He upped that to 58.5% in his second season. He shot bad behind the arc but had historical 2pt numbers for a guard and a good volume of free throws. Those made him a star level scorer. Detroit and Houston are similarly bad 3pt shooting teams. However, Cade does not have a sidekick with gravity. That's part of the spacing of a team. Green had Sengun and Fred.
Ts % , 3 % , 3pt attempt rate , ft rate , on-off , vorp , bpm etc . I have talked about offensive rating in the past . You can use efg all I’m saying is that you keep referring to one stat offensive on-off ( not even sure how that’s derived) and this is one of the few stats ive seen that paints him in an above average light . I will say looking at epm , offensive epm puts him in the 80th percentile . But , he was also closer to the 50th percentile for much of the season and it wasn’t until sengun went out and he had a hot streak that he shot up that ranking Do you happen to have hockey assist numbers ? Or do you just have the general theory of breaking down defenses and chaos because honestly I think my offensive rebounding theory is just as plausible and I understand (for your purposes) we are just talking about offense . But take a close look at the rockets splits in wins and losses this year . Usually it was the defense that had more of an impact on winning . I could see IME going with a : Amen , FVV , brooks , Jabari , sengun unit just trying to put our best Defensive unit first
I was responding to your comments on Jalen’s 3 pt shooting. If 3 pt shooting is the end all be all then Luka sucked his first 2 years and in this year’s finals. 3 pt shooting is never the end all be all to define a player. I explained in depth what TS represents and its not shooting. Its scoring per possession. 2 different things.
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Think of another theory to make sure to not give Green any credit whatsoever because Jalen Green is in he 5th percentile in team offensive rebounding with a -5% decrease in offensive rebounding per possession. He has literally one of the worst impacts on team offensive rebounding frequency. So no the team having a much higher offensive efficiency isn't due to "offensive rebounding". Your offensive rebounding theory is not plausible with one second of basic intellectual curiosity rather than a rabid agenda to dismiss literally anything positive the kid does. Your "theory" falls apart also just by looking at team on/off efg% with Green. If the team generates a lot more pts per possession just because Green bricked a lot more generating offensive rebounds you'd probably see a positive team offensive efficiency impact but see a negative team efg% impact. Green is in the 80th percentile in team efg% impact.
Yeah, I agree that 3pt shooting by itself doesn't make the whole picture clear. That's why I also added TS% data which is derived by using all three kinds of scoring.
I think the stats side of things rushes to judgement way too quickly. It should come as no surprise to anyone that young NBA players take a little time to become 'good' defenders. Same with shooting. The expectation that Jalen should be on an all NBA sort of trajectory while keeping up with his contemporaries is a little trivial when the argument boils down to basically one made shot per game. I dont think Jalen was bad at all. Inconsistent? Sure. Inefficient? Sure. His highs are way too high to just write off. Its all about locking in and stabilizing the peaks and valleys. He is a good rebounder. He can play good team defense and believe it or not was statistically one of the best iso defenders in the NBA last year. I think its hyperbole to say that if he's not a star level scorer that he will not contribute to wins as a support player because we have gone pages so far with guys discrediting his impact on a .500 team where he was tied with 3 other players in usage. Paradox.
Finally. Great point about the paint. How did teams beat or give the Rockets problems last year? They stacked the paint playing zone or switch zone on us. They sagged their wings on man and later in the season they trapped green every time coming off a high screen. This took away Sengun and Green’s dribble drive or high screen and roll sets. This is the core of why Rockets offense stagnates in long stretches. How do the Rockets open up the lanes for Green while allowing Sengun to thrive? I agree he needs to get to his spots inside the arc and paint where he can score or make plays. This means implement elbow DHO’s and more isos on the perimeter and less high screen and rolls. Less FVV. More opportunities to dribble drive or pull up 15 ft elbow j. play through your two best players in Sengun and Green. If Sengun can develop an 18-20 ft jumper or three ball even better. We could play 5 out and spread defenses. What we lack is a second scorer that can get to the paint consistently to open things up even more and at this time it’s either Cam or Amen. It remains to be seen if any of this will materialize.
His isolation defense was pretty good, especially later in the season. I remember several instances of him locking up opponents. His team defense was subpar though. His hustle stats overall are not great. Catch&shoot percentages are low. Those are the things that make me concerned that he won't be able to be a good role player. People are harsh on Green - sometimes too harsh- because he stagnated in scoring while Sengun had an All-Star level season and VanVleet was a huge upgrade over KPJ. Thus he sticked out a little. Maybe team became too good too fast for him. Players like Booker, Fox, and LaVine were still playing for tanking teams in their 3rd seasons and their teams got better as they developed. The situation is not as ideal for Green as it was for those guys, I can agree with that. Still, this is the situation we have in Houston Rockets. Green has to adapt and be better. Those teams didn't have much in their hand except the players I mentioned. The Rockets have a crowded young core and the time is ticking for giving them contracts. They have to choose. This is where it gets tricky for Jalen. He is a risk to take. I can understand a lot of people not wanting to get under that when you have options.
Yes, it is about scoring efficiency, not shooting efficiency, although shooting has a huge part in scoring efficiency. And honestly, isn't scoring efficiency more important than shooting? The goal of offense is scoring, not showing shooting skills. TS% does not give you the whole picture of a player's offensive impact. For example, it does not account for play making and how he affects opposing defenses. But it is an important part if the player is a high volume shooter. Low efficiency with high volume means that he takes away precious possessions from his team, possession that could have been more efficient. While individual efficiency does not show the whole picture, team efficiency is THE PICTURE of a team's offense. It is basically what ORtg is. A high volume inefficient shooter inevitably lowers team efficiency. If you look at most of the elite scorers, they all have high TS%.
I really don't think so. There's nothing that can show the highs and lows of an 82 game schedule, the numbers naturally come to the middle ground when combined over the course of that schedule. I think the closest you could come is some kind of graph plotting a certain stat (3 point shooting / 2 point shooting / FT shooting / Rebounds / Assists) for each game over that season and see where the majority of those dots land. Those plots on a graph aren't subject to being drawn to the average due to aggregation. A graph would work for twitterverse where you can post it as an image.... not so much for someone simply trying to compare numbers. For Jalen and 3 point shooting, you'd have 50 far below the average for his position and 25 above that average and a small number in the middle. I know saying 3 point shooting is massively important for Jalen seems simplistic but the bottom line is when he shoots .375 or better they are a .620 team and when he shoots .333 or lower they were .442 as a team. .620 makes them a top 4 seed most seasons, even in the brutal west. The real issue with Jalen, when you look at the plots on that graph is that the results are clustered in two places - very high and very low, not much "in the middle". Of the 27 games he shot .400 or better, in 17 of those he was actually .500 or better with 9 games .550 or better and 6 of those .600 or higher. Of those 9 .550 or higher, they won 6 - all 3 losses coming against playoff teams and 2 of those were in the conference finals. When he's hot - he's hot. There are only 3 games "right around league average" (.371 for shooting guards) .375, .375 and .364. of which they won 2 of 3. After that it's a 30 point drop to .333 .333 9 games. (5-4) .300 1 game (1-0) Then 42 more .286 or lower. By far the largest cluster. (18-24) When he's not - he's not. It would be quite difficult to come up with a formula that showed this kind of inconsistency, Maybe you could come up with some kind of weighted formula but raw numbers are always drawn to the average over time.
