The Astros created this run by thinking long term and acting proactively; give one example ever in any sport where a team finished in the bottom 5 in their league for 4 straight years then finished in the top 4 in the league for 7 straight years (before the Astros did it)? Every team that ever had a great run rode it into the ground until they sucked because that’s the prescribed and sentimental way of handling it. Im not advocating making the decision to tank this season today. But if they don’t go at least 16-7 between now and the all star break, they’ll be heading into the deadline with ~10% chance of making the playoffs, and as-is next season will have the same roster minus Bregman, with minimal payroll flexibility and a crummy farm. Thats not a recipe for making it back to the playoffs. Half measures in that situation are just delaying the inevitable and making it more painful.
Long term roster building in baseball is different than any other sport. This team should sell pending FA (Bregman) and mid-level, easily replaced guys in arbitration (McCormick) or not in long term plans (Meyers?) If there is no, or extremely little chance at a postseason run. As long as the team has 2-3 stars and 2-3 above average position players along with 3+ above average SP and 6+ overall good reliable pitchers this team should not trade core players who are under control for the next season.
The envitable is not winning ALCS over and over and over again. Your philosophy means the warriors don’t win the ship in 2022.
Fangraphs thinks we have a 30% chance of making the playoffs today. You are delusional if you think Crane thinks it’s that unlikely. You and Snake are being idiotic. Imagine Crane going to Altuve and saying…hey it’s only a 30% chance you guys are going to turn it around so I’m going to trade your best buddy Bregman. But we will have a 55% chance in 2026. These guys are used to winning. Giving up is stupid.
"Payroll flexibility" is really a misnomer. 2025 does not have the caliber of free agents that 2024 did - and when Soto inevitably returns to the Yankees, there are really no star-caliber bats. Not that that matters - a team that traded away their core and bottomed out isn't a prime destination. You're just saving money for Jim Crane. Which, good for him. But I don't know why anyone not in the Crane family would root for reduced spending.
In 2018, Manny Machado was a rental 3B traded to LAD. The Orioles got: LAD #4 prospect (MLB #64 in '19) 55 grade LAD #27 became Bal #23 45 grade LAD #28 became Bal #9 50 grade Unranked RHP became Bal #20 40 grade Unranked inf became Bal FG #21. 40 grade Now Machado was a much better player and only owed $6.3M for rest of season. I'm not saying Bregman will get that kind of return, but a MLB top 100, an organization top 10 and organization top 20 should be minimum.
I'm not saying any of the scenarios or ideas I have suggested will happen. In fact, I doubt any if them will. And that's terrible to think about as an Astros fan. Do you watch the games? What in the world makes you think THIS TEAM has any chance at the playoffs in 2024? I will tell you, that by selling smart in 2024 they can win a World Series in 2025.
Do I watch the games? Hahaha. How stupid are you? What makes me think THIS team can win is well let me see…should I just name every guy that was on the team last year?
The thing that you don’t seem to get as an “unbiased” fan is you need to go to Altuve…the greatest Astro ever that’s 5’4” and no one has ever believed in and after 7 years of unprecedented success and tell him we are punting on this season cause we don’t think you can turn it around. It’s hilariously stupid and I’m tired of you and snake acting like it’s the smart thing.
https://lastwordonsports.com/baseball/2024/05/09/manny-machado-orioles-trade/ This article breaks down the return from the Machado trade... the Orioles got exactly one decent player from that trade, Dean Kremer. Who has contributed 3.5 WAR over the course of his 5 year stint with the O's and is currently injured. Not exactly a blockbuster return.
We will be lucky to get a top 100 prospect for Bregman, much less the minimum you’re talking about here.
How a trade ended up has nothing to do with the thinking leading up to the trade. Before the trade. How those players were ranked and projected is all that matters when using it to determine a potential future trade. If anything, that means the Astros should ask for more. But those players could have turned out to be good players. That's luck and/or poor scouting by the Orioles. Luck can't be controlled but give me Dana Brown's scouting ability when choosing prospects any day.
You don't think that getting Garcia back and trading away guys like Montero and Pressly, even if it costs prospects would open up salary space? As far as that goes JV's option is unlikely to vest, so I believe that the window is still wide open as long as Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve, Pena, Diaz. are still here. This should open up around 38 mil or so in addition to Bregs money coming off the books. I would use most of this money to Re-sign Tucker.Further more I believe Loperfido can fix the 1st base issue and one of Cabbage, Cole, Baez can fix the LF issue. I'm not a believer in Chas or Jake. I would like Dana to bring in a vet OF at the deadline that's under control for a couple of years. Just gotta find a guy like Rengfio to replace Bregs and fix the bullpen. The money should be there to accomplish this. As far as the SP goes, I'm hoping they give Bloss and Blubaugh a chance to get some experience so they will be ready next year. The reasons they're struggling is 1. A rookie manager 2. Injuries 3. Too much politics, Abreu, playing McCormick over Loperfido and Cabbage etc .. But there's no reason to blow this up and rebuild. TBH, I don't trust Crane, Bags, Reggie, Dana to do a total rebuild. Unfortunately there's not a Jeff Luhnow in the building down on Crawford.
Just to be straight, are you saying that if the team is 5+ games back at the trade deadline and has been unable to put together any sustained winning all season, it's still stupid to trade and look to retool for 2025? You honestly think that Altuve would rather keep the status quo than have a better chance to win in 2025? You actually think Brown or Crane or anyone is going to ask Altuve to choose that? I can see them communicating with him, but the decision will have been made. And if you are tired of my posts - go away. What makes you the post police?
The moral of the story is that prospects often don't develop. Trading current stars for prospects is a general losing proposition. The best return you could find in one of these trades confirms that in my mind. It's not a path back to contention. The Orioles returned to contention because they sucked for years and drafted well. The Yankees and Dodgers buy stars. The Rays develop and scout well, and find value in any number of places. The Braves draft well and sign their stars long term. None of them were built by getting rid of star players for prospects.
If this was the smart thing I would like one example of this happening in any sport where it worked. Team made the final four the year before and traded an icon the following season. The Marlins are a laughing stock cause they did what you are advocating for. Maybe the Mavericks after they won a ship. Also ridiculed. I know you think winning in 2026 matters more than money today or personal relationships but that’s not the real world.
FTR I am not suggesting or advocating for any kind of tear down. I am not suggesting trading Tucker or Framber I am ONLY suggesting that this team has not shown any reason to believe they can win in 2024. But has too much talent under control in 2025 to rebuild, so trading away players who have value in 2024 but don't project to important to 2025 success should be traded. If a deal projects to improve the team in 2025 make it. If it projects to improves the team in 2026 or 2027 but hurts 2025 then don't.
It's like the team has an injury plagued year that they would still be in contention if their rookie manager could've helped the team win 1/2 of their 1-2 run games, that the prospect gurus want to tear everything down and start a total rebuild with an org that's been to 7 straight ALCS. I think this is very shortsighted and some value prospects more than the on field MLB product.
I’m positive Altuve wouldn’t approve of a Bregman trade. You don’t understand teammates and you wanting to trade guys I’ve rooted for and given me some of the best memories of my life makes me mad.
