Poll do and it’s head scratcher. The US has lower inflation and stronger economic growth than its peers. In other words, US did better post-COVID than pretty much everyone else. We did something very right. facts don’t seem to matter anymore since people are led to believe wrong things, such as an unusually large number of people incorrectly believing the US is in a recession and unemployment is high.
It is very likely that without the stimulus the US economy wouldn’t be as strong as now. It’s also worth noting that Trump passed the first two CARES packages including sending direct checks. It is a very fair question about how large it was and how much it led to inflation. My own personal view is it could’ve been smaller and felt the standards and amounts given out were too loose and should’ve been means testing. Overall though it was needed given where The US and global economy was three years ago. The problem is that for most Americans it’s hard to consider what things might’ve been like without the recovery packages but higher prices are very obvious. I don’t think many are aware of or consider the problems that other economies have which the US has avoided.
I always wondered about this (bolded part). We were heading toward 30% unemployment, and we essentially gave/printed cash to everyone to prevent that. What if we didn't or weren't able to? @DonnyMost, I'm curious about your thoughts on this. I believe that if the US had been on a Bitcoin standard, it wouldn't have been able to "print" cash and give it to everyone during the pandemic.
Well, of course, that's the whole point of the Bitcoin standard. No more money printing and all the problems that come with it. You can zoom out on this and replace "pandemic" with any disaster, war, or otherwise emergency situation. In such a scenario, with a BTC standard, you'd have some avenues for the government to crank up spending: 1) Have funds set aside for such emergency situations 2) Sell bonds Sure, it's more convenient and easier to just stomp on the money printer during times of crisis, but all it does is just create more pain later.
Weighing in the US government wouldn't have been able to print more money if we were on Bitcoin and likely we would be in a depression. With the limited money supply and few opportunities to spend prices would've dropped (like we saw with gas) and while that might be good for savers most businesses wouldn't have been able to make payrolls and we would've entered a spiral of dropping prices, reduced revenues and reduced incomes. That is what happened in the Great Depression. What a lot of people don't remember is that before we were on fiat currencies not just recessions but depressions happened. While a currency fixed to a scarce resource is a check on inflation when an economy is weak it pushes deflation which is potentially worse than inflation. This not only happened in the Great Depression but in other depressions. Ironically while populist movements now have latched onto things like crypto and oppose fiat currency. The Populist movement of the early 20th century was against the Gold standard and wanted currencies like silver that was more available and could inflate. While since we've gone off the Gold Standard we've had recessions is one of the s but not an actual depression and the ability to manipulate the money supply is one of the tools to deal with economic downturns.
1) Most economic crises were either a result of fiat manipulation or some commodity market going haywire. 2) BTC is not deflationary, it is disinflationary. Major difference. In a sound money economy, prices fall to the marginal cost of production, no lower.
Yes commodity markets going haywire were responsible for some but most economic crisis in history occured before fiat currencies were used. The US didn't leave the gold standard until 1973. I'm not sure that is much of a distinction but please elaborate.
(naive questioning continues) 1- Since we are running a heavy debt and deficit, how is this viable? 2- Who buys these, and how quickly can the federal government obtain funding through bonds? Days, weeks, months, years? 0- "All the problems that come with it" is what I'm trying to explore. Would those problems be similar to when we were under the Gold standard? Take the Great Depression as an example. We couldn't print gold to prevent the Great Depression (I think). Would we be repeating that vulnerability with Bitcoin?
Under Biden, U.S. economic growth becomes the ‘envy of the world’ https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/biden-us-economic-growth-becomes-envy-world-rcna157003 a few notes from the article: Americans recently saw 27 consecutive months of unemployment below 4% — a streak unseen in the United States since the 1960s. Similarly, 2023 was arguably the best year for U.S. job creation since 1999. The Washington Post reported that Americans were experiencing “the world’s best recovery,” which was “outperforming all of its major trading partners.” Around the same time, an Axios report similarly noted, “The United States economy grew faster than any other large advanced economy last year — by a wide margin — and is on track to do so again in 2024.” Four years ago, the pandemic temporarily brought much of the world economy to a halt. Since then, America’s economic performance has left other countries in the dust and even broken some of its own records. The growth rate is high, the unemployment rate is at historic lows, household wealth is surging, and wages are rising faster than costs, especially for the working class. There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them.
If the US is to remain the single premier world currency (not to be confused with global reserve currency), fiat is required. If the US loses the single premier world currency standard, Americans are in for a serious awakening. The probability of this happening increases each year. The only way the US remains the premier world currency standards is to 1) austerity 2) economic grow 3) revenue/taxation. All three will be required. MMT is the fastest way to sink the American Hegemony
1) It's above my pay grade to forecast or explain how we transition from fiat to sound money, but the basic answer is you stop spending more than you make, pay down your debt, and save. 2) Also above my pay grade. Back when we actually had to pay for our stuff as we went we did it though. The basic answer would be that if the people supported it, they would fund it, if not, they wouldn't. 0) The problems of fiat are that it disincentivizes saving, prudent spending, etc. The money printer robs the underprivileged. Fiat and its inherent overfinancialization creates bubbles which pop and create depressions. Perfect money is an antidote to the boom-bust cycle of fiat and the unstable nature of commodities. You may want to shift this discussion over to the BTC thread in the Hangout FYI.
Exactly. If we lose global reserve currency status, then Americans' quality of life TANKS. That's why our military and intel agencies literally kill foreign leaders and undermine regimes whenever they try to move away from the dollar. The Democrats brought on this inflation by out of control spending (leads to money printing), provoking war in Ukraine, and draconian covid shutdowns which wiped out our supply chains and changed the composition of our workforce. The out of control spending is the key piece here -- and yet they still are pushing for money government spending... even in the face of a Fed that has jacked up rates to combat inflation. They are working against the Fed's goals. And people can't buy houses because mortgage rates are too high... again, points back to sky high government spending levels (a key plank in the Democrats platform). Democrats are INFLATION ARSONISTS. They must be voted out. The quality of life of the lower and middle classes depends on it.
The only thing keeping the 'murican hegemony from imploding is the fact that the entire rest of the world would have to eat the **** sandwich too (and probably more of it) so we're all just going along with the collective delusion. thisisfinedog.jpg
The Democrats out of control spending has caused the interest expense on our debt to SKYROCKET. Our current spending level is clearly unsustainable. We are going to go broke! The Democrats simply do not grasp this -- and continue to promote reckless spending levels. This is DIRECTLY leading to massive inflation. Yet they still want to spend billions on bombs in Ukraine, pay for college debt, give handouts for green energy fantasies, etc, etc. They are inflation arsonists. If you can't afford groceries or rent, thank a Democrat.
It would be a very painful process, but it's not impossible to reach fiscal responsibility or have little to no debt. But, this also has problems. We grow by borrowing or financing. The inability (or extreme difficulty) to finance major projects such as huge infrastructure developments would, it seems, have a major impact on future economic growth and well-being. (of course, the problem of overspending is a big issue) Yes, I think people would definitely buy US federal government bonds (as long as it's still a strong and trustworthy nation). I was thinking of the mechanism and how fast it could be, as that relates directly to how quickly the federal government could respond to things such as major natural disasters, pandemics, economic crises, etc. People, also, aren't always logical and rational as a group and acting as individuals is what can cause a depression or other major issue for the group as a whole. The cycle of boom and bust is what I most dislike, and I always thought it should be possible to avoid; but of course, I have no idea how. We did have boom and bust with gold as the standard, so I'm not sure how Bitcoin would prevent that. I'm attracted to something that evens out the economic cycle so that there is much less boom and bust, or something with slower or even zero growth, as long as there is enough for everyone. Until and unless there is something like that, it seems to me it's still very important to have the tools to manage them as much as you can (printing money is a tool to manage). This stuff is too complicated for me to understand, so I'll just leave it as not understandable for now. Yep, will take it to the hangout at some point...
