link should work for everyone Why Democrats Keep Losing the Battle for Small-Town America Voters in rural North Carolina reflect the mounting challenges facing President Biden in swing states, voicing discontent with the economy, illegal immigration and inflation https://www.wsj.com/politics/electi...b4c67f9vrlx&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/15/biden-polling-voters-trump-election/ Opinion : Biden should assume the polls are right, not wrong The president’s approval rating hovers around 38 percent, and the picture is worse in swing states. By the Editorial Board| Updated June 16, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. EDT| Published June 15, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. EDT President Biden has a polling problem, and he needs to admit it. The president trails presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump by an average of around 1 percentage point, according to the site FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates and weights dozens of polls. Mr. Biden’s approval rating hovers around 38 percent — one of the lowest for a sitting president in decades. The picture is worse in swing states, with Mr. Biden trailing in five of the six that he won in 2020. In a recent New York Times-Siena College survey, Mr. Trump was leading Mr. Biden by 12 percent in Nevada and 10 percent in Georgia. For months, Democratic strategists, the Biden campaign and even the president himself have failed to make sense of the numbers. The hope was that, as the economy improved, so, too, would Mr. Biden’s political fortunes. This year, the stock market is up over 10 percent, reaching record highs. Inflation is easing. By most metrics, the U.S. economy is the strongest in the developed world. Yet Mr. Biden’s disapproval ratinghas continued to rise from 53 percent last fall to over 56 percent today. Polls suggest that several of Mr. Biden’s core constituencies — young people, Black people and Hispanics — are increasingly Trump-curious. In a Wall Street Journal poll of swing states, 30 percent of Black men said they would definitely or probably vote for Mr. Trump. For the disaffected, Mr. Trump offers the promise of radical change. In the Times poll, these “tear-it-down” voters — some 15 percent of registered voters — prefer Mr. Trump by 32 percentage points. For anti-system voters, what could be better than a candidate who promises to destroy that system? In response to these findings, Mr. Biden has attacked not just individual polls but polling writ large. “The polling data has been wrong all along,” he said in an interview with CNN. “How many — you guys do a poll at CNN. How many folks you have to call to get one response?” Speaking to donors on May 10, Mr. Biden insisted that “while the press doesn’t want to write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor.” That is not an attitude on which to build a presidential campaign. To be sure, counterintuitive polling results such as these deserve scrutiny. Some of the data on Black or young voters suggest a historic swing among these demographics away from the Democratic Party, an astonishing finding. Pollsters could be struggling to reach representative samples of these groups. Perhaps certain types of voters are more likely to pick up their phones or fill out online surveys, a bias that could be uniquely distorting this election cycle. Polls are just snapshots of public opinion. Some respondents might be registering disapproval of the president now, but will shift when the choice between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump comes into focus. Most Americans aren’t paying close attention to the presidential race — yet. In the 2016 election, much of the movement in the polls happened in the fall. Polls show Mr. Biden faring poorly among low-information voters — those least likely to be following the news. But it would be a mistake for the president to take comfort in these caveats. Despite some past misses, poll aggregates such as FiveThirtyEight’s still provide the most reliable information about the state of public opinion. Even in the surprising 2016 election, Nate Silver’s model, based in large part on polling figures, gave Mr. Trump a roughly 30 percent chance of winning — a substantial shot that should not have been discounted. Yet Hillary Clinton campaign officials were overconfident, having already persuaded themselves that there was no way Americans would vote for a candidate as unpredictable, unqualified and outright dangerous as Mr. Trump. What was clear to partisans was, apparently, unclear to a great many Americans. Similarly, Mr. Trump’s conviction in the New York hush money case may further the illusion of his unelectability. Would Americans reallyvote for a felon to be their president? Some initial post-trial polling points to a slight bump for Biden. But slight bumps might not be enough. If it’s the economy, stupid, then the status quo might actually be good. But many Americans are saying otherwise. Voting is an emotional, personal act, not necessarily one determined by a careful assessment of the relevant macroeconomic indicators. Rejecting the polls — relying instead on anecdotes, instincts and vibes — is political malpractice and, in this highly consequential election, dangerous for the country. Rather than assuming the polls are wrong, Mr. Biden should assume they are right — and act accordingly.
Ah, back to your previous approach of spamming the forum and playing the contrarian…some things never change.
The polls should be a matter of concern but aren’t definitive. There are several polls showing Biden with a narrow lead also. Biden’s camp doesn’t talk about the polls much but they are aware them and heeding them. I don’t think Biden would’ve put in his executive action on the border if he didn’t pay attention to the polls.
It's all he does on these forums. Just spam this section with anti biden OPeds then claims he's a independent moderate while ass kissing trumps. He's a shitty human being @Os Trigonum nd more ppl should call him out for it
You post an OPed using unnamed sources claiming biden was too old but somehow don't post an article when the german chancellor claims biden is totally fine and is up for the job. It's almost as if you have a anti biden agenda and you're actually a shitty human being with no values.
"Liberal minds" claims the donkey who posts nothing but anti biden opeds while claiming he's a moderate independent. No you're a republican who's too embarrassed to claim he's a trumper. You're a shitty person
The NBC article mentioned biden giving protected status to only those folks who are married to us citizens and eligible for protected status. He's not giving migrants protected status. It just blows my mind that being rich doesn't make you any more smarter than the typical MAGA dipshit @Commodore . Even the "rich" right wing dipshits @AroundTheWorld are braindead stupid incapable of thinking
