The smart GM’s will do to us what Luhnow did to Detroit and Arizona… bunch of promising prospects that all fizzle out or just become journeymen. Need to trade with lesser GM’s.
Some people are going to be pro prospects vs overpaying for later years. Always. If they’re paying for Altuve/Alvarez and have all this decent young pitching… they need to retain Tucker. Keep drafting well and take flyers on overlooked veterans to fill minor holes (like 6th inning bullpen or backup OF) and the team will stay competitive.
Indeed. Most prospects fizzle. What the Astros have been able to be blessed with on both sides (promoting the ones that do well, trading the ones that don’t) isn’t the norm. Fully expecting a franchise regression to the mean on that ledger.
I thought that "giving away guys we shouldn't have" was a constant thorn in our side under Luhnow? Martinez, Hernandez, Hader, Sandoval, Laureano, etc, etc...
Because it doesn’t really matter. Tucker and his agent aren’t dumbasses who will count deferred money the same as money that isn’t deferred. Now, there’s an option for them to give Tucker an extra long deal (10-12 years) to spread out the money to lower the AAV. But that’s actually increasing the deal and not deferring the money. People act like deferred money is some panacea for payroll strapped teams, but I haven’t seen a single deal with deferred money that was actually a clear discount.
Of course it's not a discount for the player, pretty much the opposite, (it's not that complicated, as we've seen recently), but if it helps the team maintain some artificial payroll ceiling then why not see if it works for all parties involved?
Indeed… yet the three biggest deals he ever made (JV, Cole, Greinke) all featured prospects that didn’t go on to become future all-stars with the trade partner (Musgrove ended up blossoming more with the Padres… but still, end of day, he’s only Joe Musgrove). The Astros actually do have prospects with some higher ceilings right now. If they trade for more hopefully they can bulk-package them for more established players. As long as they’re in the Altuve/Alvarez/Pena/Diaz/Meyers/Garcia/Spencer/Hunter/Hader prime years…. They can’t just sell off all the current guys with trade value for prospects. Lowering the AAV on any long-term deal will give the team payroll flexibility for filling holes. And when Crane has had enough, he’ll sell and cash out for quadruple the value he paid (but first, he’ll stay the owner till they build the hotel/entertaiment stuff by MMP and value will continue to go up).
Because it doesn’t reduce the impact on the competitive balance tax calculation. If Tucker wants $250M/8yrs, giving him $300M/8yrs (or whatever the amount would be) with a bunch of it deferred such that the present value is $250M/8yrs doesn’t lower the AAV used to calculate the competitive balance tax. It would affect the cash flow calculations, but I don’t think that’s the primary determining factor in how they set payroll limits.
Young (or granfathered) players I keep: Altuve, Yordan, Pena, Diaz, Tucker [crickets] Pitchers: Brown, Abreu, Martinez (eta: and Spencer, Durbin, somebody else who's good and cheap whose name I can't think of at the moment), possibly anyone on the IL and/or with more than 2 controlled years left (what's that, 5 MLB guys?) Admittedly I haven't actually dove (or diven )deep into this, because contracts and offseason stuff is my absolute least favorite part of following MLB, or any sport for that matter. You can see and judge what happens on the field, you can't see what happens in the offices.
It's not your money. There's no salary cap. Unless Crane cares I don't get why you would. Does Crane care? We're about to find out.
Trade synopsis of everyone on the 40 man: Untouchable franchise icons: Altuve, Alvarez Controllable players that are worth more to Houston than other teams: Blanco, Brown, Hader, Diaz, Salazar Untradable injured players: France, Garcia, Graveman, Javier, McCullers, Murfee, Ortega, Sousa, Urquidy DFA fodder with little to no trade value: Hernandez, Ort, Hensley, Singleton, Hummel 2nd tier prospects who can be a headliner for a good player or a complementary piece for a star in a buy-side trade: Loperfido, Arrighetti 3rd tier prospects who can headline a buy-side trade for a rental or complement a trade for a good player: Dubin, Kessinger, Corona, Cabbage 4th tier prospects who can be throw-ins on most buy-side trades or meaningful pieces traded for rental relievers: Henley, Mushinski, Speas, Whitley, Amaya That leaves the following as legit trade chips if Houston decides to sell: Bryan Abreu: has 2 more years of control and is one of the best RP in the league; Houston should demand multiple Top 100 prospects for him, which they would be unlikely to get, so he probably stays Seth Martinez: probably worth more to Houston for his ability to effectively eat middle innings, but you never know when another team loves a guy; one org top 10 prospect would be enough to move him Tayler Scott: same as Martinez Rafael Montero: overpaid and unproductive, he does have a relatively shiny era; if Houston can get one org top 30 prospect for him while eating only half his remaining salary, they should do it Ryan Pressly: 2.68 xfip says he’s still elite; Houston should not move him unless they get a good return, like 2 org top 10 guys without eating much money Justin Verlander: his underlying metrics show signs of him fading but he’s still been effective and he’s one of the biggest names in the sport, plus he’s playoff tested; Houston should pull about half what they gave up last year (ie one fringe top 100 guy or 2 org top 10 guys). Framber Valdez: would probably be the best SP available and if Houston sells this year they need to trade Framber. He should pull in 2-4 very very good prospects (see Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas trades from years past). Victor Caratini: Very unlikely that Houston will receive a compelling offer as catchers are hard to move midyear. Houston should hang on to him. Alex Bregman: by far the most likely trade candidate on Houston’s roster, they should get a slightly lesser haul than what the orioles got for Machado in 2018. Jeremy Pena: would probably be the best SS available, and his value might be peaking, so it’s probably worthwhile to listen to offers, but the return would need to be franchise-altering. Unlikely. Mauricio Dubon: his versatility and clubhouse appeal are probably worth more to Houston, but those things also appeal to other teams. The return would need to be substantial. I’d demand a top 100 prospect and probably get laughed at which is fine. Chas McCormick: this would be a sell low scenario so they are probably better off hanging on to him and hoping for a rebound. But if they know he was fools gold then they should see what they can sell for. Jake Meyers: same as Pena. Kyle Tucker: would probably be the best overall player available and demand a huge return. My firm belief is that Houston can reset their trajectory with a fair return for Tucker and if they’re out of it this season they should do it. I’d shoot for what the Nats got for Soto as a benchmark and take a little less than that.
If the Astros make 1 big trade for a SP and 1b, what deal makes sense? What would it take to get the one you choose done? 1) Jordan Montgomery and Christian Walker 2) Jesus Lazardo and Josh Bell 3) Kevin Gausman and Vlad Guerrero Jr 4) Sean Manea and Pete Alonzo 5) other.
