If we draft Sheppard or Castle, what does that mean for Jalen Green?

19 year old Jalen would likely go #1 if he was in the same situation he was in prior to the 2021 draft. If he went back into the draft again this year with 3 years worth of tape on him, he would go anywhere from 5-15 IMHO since this is a weak draft class in general. A strong draft class would likely push him lower. If he did not have his streak last year, he would go late 1st round our 2nd round this year IMHO. He played that bad for most of the season. His streak was mind-blowingly amazing so the potential is there. It is up to him to bring it consistently.

 

So basically someone with a career scoring efficiency better than Paolo Banchero this season would be drafted 5-15?

So you'd say there are 5 or so guys who could lead their team in usage rate right now as rookies and at the same time have the second highest on/off impact(72nd percentile amongst the league) on team offensive efficiency only behind FVV on a 40+ win NBA team? You think there are 5-15 guys capable of that now in this draft class. Can you name them.

 

There is multiverse where he can be a Top 35-45 ish player and nobody is really iffy.

He is such a rhythm and emotional player that slumps and injuries are bound to happen longer term.

 

I don't think the situations are comparable. Chris Paul is old as hell and they brought him in to play 20 minutes and lead the bench unit. He was never supposed to start, Pod or no Pod. And Pod never started over Klay other than during the injury, and shortly after when they were easing Klay back into the lineup on limited minutes.

But aside from that, the question in the OP is how he would impact Jalens minutes and I just can't see any world where Jalens minutes are reduced so that Sheppherd can play more. If the org has that little faith in Jalen I think they would get rid of him, I don't see any situation where they keep him around but reduce his minutes so a rookie can get more playing time.

 

I don’t think Sheppard takes minutes from anybody other than Holiday, but if he does it won’t be Jalen at least until we know which Jalen we are going to get. If he is really all that like BTG and others say he is then maybe he can help reduce FVV’s minutes which is needed.

 

Some rookies can make impact right away. I brought-up Podziemski, because he was one of those. +8.7 +/- is very significant. IF someone like Sheppard can produce like Podz and IF the Rockets want to win instead of keep experimenting with Green, then hell yeah, I think Green will lose minutes to Sheppard…

These are reasonable IFs. Sheppard has some similarities to Podz and the Rockets are supposedly trying to win… So not out of the question. At the same time, if there is no trade market, how do you get rid of Green? Why not keep him around, on a much shorter leash, and harvest the few minutes per year when he plays like a God?

 

It means nothing at all. This is a role player draft, Sheppard has the ability to take over for Fred in a year. Jalen is fine as long as he finds consistency.

 

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4879/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

Sengun had a net negative on/off impact for the season.

If the Rockets for some reason draft Clingan, there could be a possibility he is a net positive right away and take minutes away from Sengun. It's a realistic possibility one has to consider.

 

Maybe, just maybe Sengun's so-called "negative on/off impact for the season" had something to do with him sharing almost all of his minutes with Jalen Green, who had a significantly worse "on/off impact for the season"?

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

"If the Rockets for some reason draft Sheppard, there could be a possibility he is a net positive right away and take minutes away from Green. It's a realistic possibility one has to consider."

And Jabari's were even worse:

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5092/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

This stat seems pretty worthless. According to it, Boban and Jae'Sean Tate and Aaron Holiday should get all of Alpi's, Jalen's and Jabari's minutes. lol

 

So why was FVV immune to it?

Offensively this is damning as Green has the second highest on/off team offensive efficiency only behind FVV and technically Landale but his sample size is rather small and therefore prone to noise. AND this with the fact that Ime often pairs FVV and Sengun to he hip in rotation minutes because he believed their two man game was the primary engine of the offense and Green often staggered with FVV as the back up primary ball handler so out of all he starters Green probably played with the best offensive impact player on the team in FVV the least per game.

Anyways it's funny you got triggered here even though the comment you replied to of mine was not a serious reply and more of a reply to show faulty logic. I don't think any guy in this draft class has more than a 1 percent chance of taking minutes away from Sengun.

 

The stat is stupid. If it were any indication of actual quality, it would say Boban, Tate and Holiday are much better than Sengun, Jalen, Jabari.

 

Wut?
If the state was quality it would say that Boban is better than Sengun?

Did you mean to type something else?

 

Impossible, Alpi's the 3rd best center and a top 10 player in the league...

 

I said the stat you are quoting has no value.

First, you shot yourself in the foot when selectively quoting it to slander Sengun, because Jalen's values are worse than Sengun's.

Secondly, Boban, Tate, Holiday all have very positive values in the stat you quoted, for whatever reason. Clearly, Sengun, Jalen, Jabari are better players.

So what I am saying is that the stat is useless.

 

It's funny you think my goal was to prove that Green had a better year than Sengun.

It's really telling. You can't give any credit to Green. Can you?

 

What stat are you referring to. The only two players better than Jalen in team on/off offensive efficiency according to cleaning the glass is FVV which makes perfect sense and Landale which also make perfect sense as the bulk of his playing time happened during a 13-2 stretch which generates a lot of noise.

If you are reffering to overall net on/off impact, then ya it makes sense Tate, Holiday etc had better on/offs than Sengun or Jalen because it's a lot easier to have better on/off impact as a bench player as you are playing opposing bench units. That's why these on/off impact numbers require context and should only be compared when players are in similar situations like being starters.

 

Funny how you completely ignore defense in order to make a net negative player like Jalen look as if he wasn't dogshit overall.

 

Give it up, Bobby. Your the one looking foolish here.

If I was confident you could actually carry an interesting conversation, we could discuss why. But, as @Dankstronaut said, you’re narcissistic persona is such a turn off for such attempts.

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For others following along,

I’ll just add this to the discussion of Cam’s potential to play SG or SF:

cfnet was pretty unanimous when discussing two classic SGs in Rocket’s history:

1. We all thought Cat should pass more / had tunnel vision
2. We all thought EGo needed a better handle (to drive better)

Now, if either of them had the body to also play SF, we most definitely would have had many debates on moving them to SF for lack of passing/handle … which is where we are at in discussing Cam’s role.

That said, curious thing is both Rudy and MDA did in fact use them both very effectively at the 3 in small-ball lineups (Moochie, Francis and Cat) and (Bev, Harden, EGo) and (Paul, Harden, EGo).

 

I was browsing Podziemski stats, since I brought him up, and here something that struck me.

In his very nice rookie year, the #19 pick has drawn 41 charges in 1900 minutes.
Jalen Green for his entire career has drawn 42 in total??!!

Sometimes a random stat tells a whole story…