If I were GM part 2 - pitchers. Starting pitchers are the running backs of MLB. By that I mean you need several of them, and they are always a pitch (or play) away from a season ending injury. But you can't win without them. Because of this, there is huge risk to having too much invested in the rotation, or having too few of them available. Furthermore, until a pitcher is in his late 20s, his joints, and muscles aren't finished developing. All of this points to my philosophy. Don't draft pitchers early, or give big bonuses. Draft college pitchers before high school pitchers. Draft LOTS of them in the 2nd half of every draft. Actively look for Latin American pitchers who are late bloomers and still unsigned at 18+. Once in MLB, never guarantee a pitcher over 4 years. Use the entire 6-6 1/2 yrs for all pitchers but don't commit additional guaranteed years until you have to. Starting pitchers should rarely be traded but also rarely extended. If a veteran MLB pitcher is brought in because the team needs depth, make sure he is limited to a 1-4 year guarantee MAX. 1-2 is better. Instruct the field manager to never risk the health of a starter more than necessary. Always pull him if there is a debate whether he should go another inning. Monitor innings and pitches strictly. Obviously there needs to be a balance or else you burn out your bullpen, but a starter should very rarely throw over 100-110 pitches and never over 120. Younger starters have a lower pitch count limit. Except for leverage guys, all relievers must have options and constantly option/promote the bottom of the bullpen guys up and down to keep them fresh and find the best combinations. There should be even more care for pitchers under 26-27 and those approaching career highs in innings pitched. Ideally the farm system produces multiple middle to bottom of the rotation guys every year and a top of the rotation guy every other year. When trading away position players (my last post) target pitching prospects with top of the rotation potential and 4+ years of control. This is especially important since the pitchers we draft will likely be a step down in tools/potential from those drafted in early rounds by other teams.
My wishes have been granted. We have about 16 days from the deadline. This will give us a bit more data point of whether or not we should be buyers or sellers. But Dana was stating how strongly he feels this is a good team still and made it seemed like we will be a buyer.
This team is 14-10 w/o Abreu on the roster. That projects to 94-68, but with only 92 games left it works out to 86-76. It's a start.
Ryan Pressly, Jon Singleton, and Chas McCormick to Arizona for Paul Sewald and Christian Walker. Walker and Sewald are both rentals and owed about $10.4M combined. Pressly and McCormick are owed about $9.6M combined. Singleton is about $100K above min. Keeps Astros under 2nd level of CBT. Arizona is very unlikely to make the playoffs (19% per baseball reference) and this only works if they are looking to reload for 2025 and expect to compete again right away rather than receiving prospects. There is actually still a world where Pressly, Singleton, and Chas out perform Sewald and Walker the rest of 2024 and this trade improves the team immediately. Unlikely but not impossible. Arizona and Brent Strom may feel they can turn Pressly back into an All Star closer and with his option, get him for 2025 vs Sewald being a FA. Singleton has turned into a league average backup 1b who can fill in for Walker the rest of this year and has 4 more years of control. McCormick is a bounce back candidate who average 3.0 bWAR per 500 PA his 1st 3 years and still has 2 years of control. Arizona has struggled to find RH hitting OF so this feels like a great fit. His arbitration salary projections look to be quite affordable as well. Pressly is replaced by Sewald in the 8th inning and the team is free of his $14M option. Chas and Singleton both look to be very replaceable and trading them opens playing time for guys like Loperfido and Leon, or allows Dubon to play more often in LF Astros are giving up 3 established MLB players that all have control beyond this year (once Pressly's option vests), but it feels like the 2025 roster would be in better shape without them on it.
Admittedly they can likely get a better offer but to answer your question. If Arizona determines this is just a World Series hangover year and a playoff run isn't realistic, then they will probably want to sell off those 2 players who are both rentals. Based on their core, they probably want to reload for 2025 rather than rebuild so established MLB players are better than prospects for their needs. If they feel Strom can "fix" Pressly, then it will give them a potential all-star closer for next year. Plus, if that happens Pressly isn't a drop off from Sewald this year. Arizona's OF is very LH heavy and some of their younger guys haven't lived up to potential. Chas is a 4th OF who can play all 3 spots and has been very good for 3 seasons. He has been hurt and hit terribly this year, but that can possibly be attributed to his hamstring injury. Chas' arbitration salary is low and his next 2 years should also be since they are, in part, based on previous amount. He is a perfect change of scenery candidate. Singleton is a JAG, but he does bring some value as a lefty power bat that takes walks. He is not a negative. Arizona will need a 1b this year to replace Walker. Astros get: upgrade at 1b and a leverage reliever for playoff run. Arizona get: a potential all star closer for 2025, a good 4th OF for 2 more seasons and a bench lefty 1b w/ 4 more years of control. If Arizona IS out of it in 2024 they really lose nothing since both guys are rentals. The key could be that only contending teams will want to take on these players AND are unlikely to want to trade from their MLB roster. Arizona may want to take on MLB talent rather than prospects. I freely admit that they would need to think Strom will fix Pressly and like Chas or else they can get a better return.
if you're not planning on giving Tucker a long term contract, you can't play games and pretend you are. . I'm assuming Crane knows by now how much the agent wants and if he is willing to pay the going rate. If not, Milwaukee and Baltimore have some nice prospects that could be ready as soon as next year. I would rather have Kyle Tucker back though. Either decision can save the future. Letting him go for nothing will be a disaster this time around.
Crane (and Brown) have to know that anything under 8 years is a waste of time, and it will likely take 10. Anything under a $200M guarantee is a non-starter and it likely takes more. If that is past where they want to go then they must win another championship before he is gone or trade him. According to established value, he has been worth: Baseball reference/fangraphs $40.8M/$38.9M in 2020 (extrapolated to 162 g) $45.6M/$40.0M in 2021 $43.2M/$39.2M in 2022 $43.6M/$39.2M in 2023 $28.8M/$26.4M already in 2024.
The Astros can probably afford to pay one of Tucker or Bregman, more likely Bregman. Giving Tucker $250M+ would really squeeze payroll for the next 4-5 seasons, as Altuve, Alvarez, Hader, and Tucker would account for over 50% of available payroll by themselves thru 2028. But if they sign Bregman or Tucker they will essentially be unable to fill any future holes via free agency for a half decade. It also takes any extensions with younger players off the table.
Meh, there’s limits. The competitive balance tax penalties are legitimately punitive. And while the teams are surely making more profits than they say they are, it’s not infinite.
I don't think anyone has suggested paying Tucker infinite dollars. Under my brilliant scenerio, barring an unforeseeable turnaround, Bregman and Framber are gone at the deadline this year (Framber over the winter, if that works better), maybe JV too depending on what he wants. If somebody will take Pressly they can have him too, ductape him to one of the above and throw in some cash if you have to. It's all do-able, is my point.
Like I said, they can probably afford Tucker. But it would be threading a needle, financially. One on hand I like it because then there’d be no room to take risks on 2-4 year 2nd/3rd tier free agent deals that can be so brutal when they go south and which Crane’s recent track record is so crummy. All their eggs would be in the basket of Altuve/Alvarez/Tucker, and if any of those 3 guys get hurt (or suck) in any given season, it’s tanked.
Going back to hypothetical trades, I think the Luis Castillo deal and the Frankie Montas deal are the 2 best comps for what Houston could expect to demand for Framber. Castillo brought back Seattle’s #1, #6, #15, and a throw-in; Marte was an MLB Top 20 prospect and Arroyo was a fringe Top 10 guy. Montas didn’t bring back nearly as much, NY’s #6, #12, #22, and #26; however, it’s well known that the A’s march to their own misguided drummer when asking for other teams’ prospects, so it’s probable they could have gotten more highly touted guys if they’d demanded them. I think the Orioles are the best fit for Framber. I’d gun for Coby Mayo as a headliner, shooting to get 2 more prospects from the top 10-15 of the Orioles elite farm. Mayo is an MLB Top 20 prospect and would represent a Correa/Bregman/Tucker-level cornerstone prospect. OF Dylan Beavers and P Cade Povich would be excellent secondary pieces and represent potential core pieces that will reach the majors by the end of next season. Mayo could be a Bregman replacement and Beavers could replace Tucker, with Povich potentially replacing Framber in the rotation. I’d be willing to toss in Pressly and pay his remaining 2024 salary to get that package.
We just don't know that. Crane's tolerance for payroll excess has been talked about but never really tested. You've said nothing about deferred money to Tucker...why?
