I think Tucker is the only piece that should not be on the block, everyone (besides Altuve) should be expendable at this point, lets face it, were not doing anything this year. I think Jake M, and Bregman would draw good interest and I would listen to offers for Framber, but the dude seems like he needs a full-time sports psychiatrist. DFA Abreau.............the one thing killing us with our starters is 2 of them wont be ready until mid season of next year at best and I have no confidence that Lance will come back and be any good or not get hurt again this year. My caveat with Tuck is that Crane will spend the money and give him the 7–10-year deal......if we're not going to do that then he needs to go while his value is high. Have some gonads and sign Tuck this year and show us he is the core of the future
There is 0% chance Crane gives Tucker $250M+, which is what he will get from another team. Keeping Tucker for one more season in which you run out the same team but without Bregman is a fool’s errand. This run was created and sustained by long term thinking. Punting on 1-2 seasons of Altuve/Alvarez prime years sucks, but if Crane is willing to let Dana Brown trade Tucker, Bregman, and Valdez while also spending money on short term deals to backfill them with quality (albeit lesser) players, the team will still be in the wild card hunt in 2025 while being poised to dominate the division again from 2026-2033. If I were running things I might be willing to slightly overpay for Luis Renfifo and Patrick Sandoval now (playing Rengifo at 1B for the next 3-4 weeks) to try to jolt the team, then if things don’t turn around, trade Tucker/Framber/Bregman, and let Rengifo play 3B and Sandoval takes Framber’s spot. You’ve rebuilt the farm and cleared some payroll while only costing 2-3 wins across 2024-2025. That’s contingent on the Angels be willing to trade in the division and let go of guys this early for a reasonable overpay, which might be unlikely.
I agree with this 100% I just don't think it will ever happen. In fact, I think this season will reinforce Crane's thinking that expensive longer deals will kill a franchise and he may actually retreat back to the cheaper pre-arb extensions and 2-3 year deals. I realize that Abreu IS one of those deals, but giving Hader an extremely Long (for a RP) deal only for it to screw up the chemistry of the bullpen, and the Javier extension after the McCullers extension. . . It would not surprise me if we see a world of Bregman type extensions and Reddick or Brantley type signings and continue to watch all the young veteran Astros keep walking after 6-6 1/2 yrs.
Tenets I would hold, given Crane’s experience: No free agent deals over $30M/yr. No free agent deals over 5 years. No free agent deals over 2 years for players over age 33. No free agent deals over $50M for a player who is limited to 1B, LF, DH, or P. Be liberal with extensions with <$15M AAV. Be conservative with extensions larger than that. If a homegrown player is on track for the hall of fame, pay them whatever it takes, at least until their late 30s.
If I was a GM: Position players, not pitchers are ALWAYS the core of the team: Draft position players early, focus on up the middle talent, and invest in them. If a top pick/int'l signee that has exceptional tools establishes himself as All Star caliber prior to arbitration, then sign him to a deal buying out 2-? FA seasons until his age 33-35 seasons ASAP. Keep trying until after 1st yr arb. Overachieving, late blooming, and those refusing to sign extensions should be traded between deadline of 1st arb season and start of final arb season, while they have value to bring back top 100 prospects. Identify mid level veterans under 32-33 who can be signed short term on moderate AAV contracts (Michael Brantley) or have 1 1/2-2 yrs of control remaining (McCann) to fill roster holes. In the minors, push the top prospects and promote them aggressively, in hopes they can hit the jackpot and find a superstar(s) willing to sign a >10 yr extension that does not extend beyond mid 30's (not until MLB established though) Play mid level prospects at multiple positions (if they have that talent) as much as possible to have them ready for a utility role, or to fill it wherever a hole may be due to Injury, trade, or FA. Identify under the radar top talents in the lower levels of other organizations (especially those scouted and researched but missed out on in draft/int'l signing ) who could be stars and candidates for extensions if they make it. Aggressively pursue trades for those players (Yordan). I'll do pitching in a different post.
This is why Crane needs to trade prospects to dump Abreu, Montero and maybe Pressly's contracts. Free up money to make moves next year and give Loperfido, Leon a chance this year. Plus if Crane trades for a top tier reliever they could possibly win this year.
How about no free agent deals, period.! If you can't put together a roster in house or through trades you are better off with the high draft picks you accumulate by losing.
The Astros have had some great free agent deals that were key in winning rings. Charlie f’n Morton, for one.
That was then, this is now. There is not enough cash available to fix this team through free agency. Too many big holes and more to come. Save it for that last little nudge to put a winning team over the top. Today we need 1st & 3rd basemen, 4 or 5 pitchers, 2 outfielders, and a manager
This team does not need “4 or 5 pitchers”. The rotation has been very good the last 5 weeks. Framber’s start yesterday was an outlier. They have 3 SP (Blanco, Brown, Arrighetti) with 5+ years of control remaining who all have xfip <4.08, plus Framber and Verlander, both of whom are controlled thru next year, plus Garcia and McCullers, both of whom are controlled thru 2026, plus 2 breakout prospects (Blubaugh and Bloss), both of whom should be ready for the majors next season, plus Javier, who will be back in the 2nd half next season and is controlled thru 2027. That’s 10 quality arms without mentioning a single member of the bullpen, which features 4 arms (Hader, Scott, Abreu, Martinez) who have been extremely effective, and are under long term control. I also really, really like Shawn Dubin. That doesn’t necessarily negate your entire point, as I agree that this team “cant be fixed entirely via free agency”, but to say Houston should avoid free agents altogether is silly.
I'm trading for a top notch reliever and a Pham type OF this season and trading prospects to get out from under Abreu/Montero's contracts and letting Bregs walk after the yr. Next offseason Re-sign Tucker and sign Rengifo, and keeping the window open. As long as Alvarez/Altuve/Tucker and Pena are here, I'm not tanking. Trading Valdez should be on the table, but only for a kings ransom.
Rengifo is not a free agent until after next season. So you’d have to trade prospects for him then. Giving Tucker $35M+/yr means no money leftover for several years and you better hope Dana Brown is a genius at the farm game. It’s not the worst idea, but having $100M/yr tied up in 3 players carries a lot of risk with a bottom of the league farm system.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/how-will-the-rays-approach-the-deadline.html Astros get: 1B/3B Yandy Diaz OF Brandon Lowe Rays get: OF Chas McCormick OF Joey Loperfido OF Luis Baez P Miguel Ullola IF Shay Whitcomb New Astros lineup: 2B Altuve RF Tucker DH Alvarez 3B Bregman LF Lowe 1B Yandy Diaz C Yainer Diaz SS Pena CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Cabbage, Kessinger
The best move is to actually stop dicking around and figuring out if we should be buyers or sellers... and by that I mean, finally cut J. Abreu so we can figure out if our offense can be explosive enough to carry us to the WS. If we don't cut J. Abreu before deciding to be buyers at the deadline, I feel that has to be an equal mistake to signing Abrea in the first place. We need to move on. If we do decide to be sellers, I don't mind seeing what we can get for Frambler, Bregman, and Meyers.
If you get rid of the salaries of Abreu, Bregs, Montero, Pressly and either/both of JV or Framber then there should be plenty of money leftover. Signing Tucker would be priority #1 for me. The rest I could work around. Example: Trade for a SP1 go with a starting rotation of SP1, Garcia, LMJ,Blanco, Arrighetti. Use Blubaugh, Durbin etc in relief in relief and trade for a solid high leverage guy. I think you can keep this run going as long as Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve and Pena are on the team. If Loperfido, Leon, Baez workout then the Stros will still be good for a really long time. Right now the team is bogged down in a bunch of politics. Abreu Chas don't need to be paying. Chas might be a good 4th OF. He hasn't made adjustments. Pressly pitching in high leverage situations etc.....
I would see what Loperfido and Leon could do before I made this trade. But also trade for an OF like Pederson, that shouldn't cost near as much in prospects. Prospects should also be traded to get rid of Abreu 's contract. Something like Melton, Whitley, France type prospects for Abreu's contract.
You don’t trade away your #1 prospect to dump 1.5 years of a 3rd tier contract. Whitley and France alone probably have enough surplus value to offset Abreu’s contract.
