If we draft Sheppard or Castle, what does that mean for Jalen Green?

The same thing it means no matter who we draft.

He's down to his last season to show he's a starting caliber nba player or he won't get a new contract offer here at all.... and they may try to dump him at the deadline if he hasn't shown significant improvement early.

 

They really should move him before the draft, as far as I'm concerned.

 

Agreed, but I understand wanting to give him one more partial season to show something, they've invested more heavily in him than anyone else and so it makes sense they wouldn't want to have to admit failure till absolutely necessary.

 

Not related - Green has to prove himself this year in any event and for the team's current trajectory, neither Castle or Reed are going to be good enough immediately that it will ultimately impact our decisions around Jalen.

 

This is a make or break season for Jalen no matter who they draft.

He can't have 52 games where he shoots .333 or worse


He had only 3 games where he shot "right around league average" - .364 once and .375 twice.

All other games were either .400 or above or .333 or below with 38 games .250 or worse.


He needs more nights where he shoots 40% or better than anything else. He had 27 games like that last season.

 

I don't know about that.

The stats show that, all other things being equal - having a 40% shooter at the SG spot improves this to a 51 win team.

If Jalen struggles early and Ime gives someone else an opportunity ....

 

The stats don't show that.

He's in the 72nd percentile in team on/off offensive efficiency only behind FVV and Landale.

He needs to become more efficient. He was the least of our concerns on the offensive side in terms of the reasons they were bad.

You would be more accurate if you say "if Jalen Green was a 40% 3 pt shooter the team would win 50+". Any player at the sg position shooting 40% from 3 isn't going to get us 50+ wins because that ignores every aspect of Green that significantly helps this offense.

Reed being a 40% 3 pt shooter doesn't replace Green's lone ability on this team to break down half court defenses at all three levels which is important for how this team generates offense.

If you replace Green with Grayson Allen, the team would become worse offensively even though Allen is a far better three point shooter. Because you are loosing dynamic ability at the guard position.

 

It is a make or break season for Jalen. If he starts off slow I do not ecpect them to try to spend much time getting him going next season like last season. I hold out hope he will come in ready to play from the start of the season finally.

 

you guys really need some new stuff.

Draft night soon please ...

 

I think Cam is likely the biggest threat to Green's spot. I think Shepard would play at the 1 mostly and I'm not sure the Rockets would go Castle given Amen Thompson.

 

Without a 3 point shot, Jalen’s ability to break down defenses at all three levels is a moot point. If they don’t have to defend him at the first level, that makes it harder for him to beat defenders at the second and third levels. Considering our current team, I’d rather have a SG that’s main skill is hitting 3s so at least he can create space for other players.

If Sheppard or Castle even just look like they could be good backups, I think that’s bad news for Jalen because they could move Cam into his spot and have the draft pick come off the bench. The Rockets might hesitate a little if the player they draft looks completely lost.

 

Agreed. During the season I was thinking the Rockets might use Brooklyn's pick on Knecht and start Cam. Then Green went wild for a month and the Rockets moved up to 3.

 

VV, Reed or Castle
Jalen, Cam
Brooks, Amen (AT could be starting mid-season)
Bari, Tari
Alp, Adams, Landale

 

Classic!

 

Reed or Castle would be PG and like I've said previously, the Rockets want Amen to be the future PG, because if his size advantage at the position, his vision, passing and defensive skills.

If anything, I think they are going to hope that either Risacher or Sarr drops or either trade the pic. I wanted Clingan but I just don't see it now.

 

Nobody leaves Jalen Green open from 3 on purpose though. Jalen gets left "wide open" on 18% of his total shots and only converts 34% of those 3 point "wide open" shots. Cam knocks down his wide open 3's at a great rate almost absurd at 50%. "Open" shots Jalen is 6% points higher. Defenses key on Jalen - they will not give him space because if a defender sags and gives Jalen a head start he will blow by 99% of the NBA. Cam does not receive the same treatment, but that could all change starting next season with more playing time.

Tinker with the 'closest defender' tab here and draw more parallels. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/s...0?SeasonType=Regular+Season&TeamID=1610612745

 

Nope. Jalen is the player that can break down defenses in the half-court. Cam cannot. Amen cannot. Sheppard if drafted cannot. If your guards cannot drive and dish they will be tossing up highly contested 3 pters. Unfortunately, this draft does not have a someone that can both hit 3’s and break down defenses (except Dillingham that can’t play defense next to FVV) . Like it or not, our playoff hopes are dependent on Jalen or someone we trade Jalen for. The draft will not provide a Jalen replacement and Cam is not the guy either.

I like Cam and absolutely believe Amen is a superstar in the making, but this upcoming year is dependent on Jalen’s progression or a vet replacement.