His stuff is big league ready. He finally doesn’t look lost, but he has stuff to work on. Regardless, I think he is close to the big leagues.
Shay Whitcomb drove in 5 for Sugar Land today: he hit a two-run single in the 3rd, added a sac fly in the 5th, and whacked a two-run homer (13) in the 9th.
Alonzo Tredwell @ Columbia: 4.2 IP, 2 H, BB, 5 K Gotten shelled lately, but a lot of that looks to be bad BABIP luck. Entering today, that figure was .393.
Good results but not a ton of strikeouts. One interesting thing about that Astros 2023 draft is that really only 3 prospects got meaningful bonuses: Matthews, Tredwell, and Jaworsky. All of the other top 10 round picks signed for under slot. Even the later overslot guys got pretty meaningless bonuses; Ochoa and Huezo both signed for <$400k, which is only 5th round money. All that is to say that expectations for all those guys should be even lower than they would normally be for later round picks. It makes the relative blanket success they’re all having even more impressive.
Worried about the lack of strikeouts. When has that type of profile ever worked in the modern game? Pre injury Mike Soroka maybe? Kyle Hendricks? Jon Garland if you go back a bit? Really have to not walk anyone I feel like.
He struck guys out at a good clip in the lower levels, so it’s possible he’s just figuring out these more advanced hitters. His AA k/bb ratio is very similar to what it was in High A, so there’s likely been a change in his approach to pitching since he’s moved up.
The organization obviously can tell the difference between an Asheville HR and a real one, but just based on numbers it doesn't seem like Matthews should be there much longer.
Matthews’ numbers have been great, even accounting for his home park, but that 27% k rate probably needs to come down before he’s ready for AA. It’s been slightly better in June (23.5%), so hopefully he can hold that for another 100 or so pa, at which point it’ll be really clear he’s ready for AA and a potential long term core piece.
So nice to see the overall pulse of the farm system on the uptrend especially with the MLB team in regression mode.
The system has three hitters (Baez, Matthews, Dezenzo) and three pitchers (Ullola, Bloss, Blubaugh) that are pretty dang exciting. That would be my top 6 at the moment for the Astros system. Whitcomb excites me too but he's older and nobody else seems to pay him any attention, so maybe I'm just wrong about him.
He appears to be really elite at following the ball to the last split second and adjusting so that he gets the barrel of the bat on the ball. Some of the homers he has hit and base hits have been on "pitcher's pitches" and he had no business driving. Obviously he has a LONG way to go, but I can see why some scouts are so high on his potential. Not many players can wait as long into the pitch and still barrel it like Matthews does.
I'll be curious to see how aggressive they are with him. Brown has historically been very aggressive with players that have loud tools, because he believes they adjust quicker. On the other hand, Matthews is still really raw and the jump to AA can be a big one. A promotion in 100 at bats isn't the end of the world, and still puts him on track for possibly being in AAA by next year.
I’d add Pedro Leon and Jacob Melton to your list of exciting position players. The buzz around Zach Cole is interesting but I just don’t see it. Whitcomb, Wagner, Jeron Williams, and Pascanel Ferreras are producing like high quality prospects but the scouting feedback and pedigrees don’t back it up. On the pitching side, Tredwell is exciting but we probably won’t start to get a real feel for him until next year, assuming he stays healthy and keeps progressing. I will say I’m keeping a close eye on Alimber Santa; he has elite stuff and has been dominant since he got off the IL. If they don’t sell too much at the deadline and have another good draft, this farm could be back to average to start next season.
